Global Oceanic Carriers Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 07/3/2008 21:07

hhmmm, I think the $ would have to halve again for these to be expensive imo davebowler.


CR

[tuckswood8] 07/3/2008 17:47

WildDonkey - I wouldn't personally pay the rather large subscription for Tradewinds.... there are so many sites on the web where a wealth of information on the shipping industry can be found. "Lloyds List" always has some free articles and "Hellenic Shipping News" I find quite useful as well as Clarksons "Shipping Intetelligence Network" and "Capital Link Shipping" but really it comes down to spending time searching the internet and getting to know the industry, partiularly as in your case you have not had any previous involvement.

[davebowler] 07/3/2008 15:52

I think people are wary of the revenue future in Dollars i.e. judging the decline will continue.

[slapdash] 06/3/2008 11:18

hmm.. I can't help thinking a p/e under 3X for 2009 is still too cheap...2009 earnings will increasingly become locked in... (as freight rates booked) at last results 48% of 2009 was locked in but this should rise which increasingly means that these earnigns will be met.... ALSO IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT 33% OF FLEET IS CHARTERED OUT FOR 2010... AND THIS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE.... so we should see strong earnigns for 2008/2009 and 2010 what happens after that???? Welll that is the risk...but increasingly 2011 will be chartered...

WHAT DOES MANAGEMENT THINK - a company controlled and associated with management bought huge amounts of the stock at £1.65 from I believe a private equity company... so they certainly think it is worth more and were willing to pay a huge premium over what the market price was..

well certainly the forward ratings if you take them literally appear to suggest a collapse in earnings from 2010 onwards.... apparently BDI is well up again... but the link here hasn't updated....... slap

check out the news stories on this liink for info:





Shipping chief warns of 'insane' charter rates
By Robert Wright, Transport Correspondent

Published: December 2 2007 20:09 | Last updated: December 2 2007 20:09

[wilddonkey] 05/3/2008 20:43

tuckswood and any relevant others,
I have considered subscribing to tradewinds - do you think its worth the money ?
(I'm not involved in the industry, but considering how much of my net assets i'm considering investing i'm wondering if it is sensible to pay for extra information...)

[courant] 05/3/2008 20:26

CR

The tanker thing never was an issue. This is a case of a future supply spike and uncertain demand. The supply spike will happen in 2010, according to shipyard forward orderbooks. The demand is the variable - as forecasts currently stand, demand growth by 2010 will slightly have been outstripped by supply growth... however this can change. Hence nervousness.

Have a look at slide 19 here:



There's quite a tail-off in 2-3 year T/C rates, as a consequence of this uncertainty (over and above the natural tendency for longer charters to be cheaper).

Despite this outlook, I still believe that GOC, GLBS and the rest are priced too cheaply (i.e. their enterprise-value even in the face of a rate collapse two years down the line will be above what it is now). Plus there's the kicker if the doomsday scenario does not play out, for whatever reason.

Courant

[tuckswood8] 05/3/2008 20:19

GLG News by Craig Marston
Managing Director
CEM Marine

February 25, 2008
Progress On Iron Ore Negotiations Good News For Dry Bulk Shipping
Analysis of: Ore monster sinks its teeth into yards | www.tradewinds.no

Implications: Brazilian iron ore supplier Vale announced benchmark contract agreements with Nippon Steel, JFE and Posco that include a 65% price increase. This should help move the important negotiations with Chinese steel mills along, which will move dry bulk shipping rates upwards.

Analysis: The first contracts are done and the 65% price increase benchmark has been set. While the Chinese will surely push for a smaller increase, they are likely to be stuck as in prior years. If anything, there is noise from the Australian mines calling for a freight premium for Australian ore reflecting the much higher delivered price of Brazilian commodity. China would do well to complete contracts quickly.

The Chinese may yet repeat their behavior from 2006 and hold out until mid-year to accept the new price, but it is far more likely that an agreement will be reached by the 01 April contract date. In any event, look for dry bulk shipping rates to sharply recover as uncertainty in iron ore trade volumes diminishes.

The iron ore price increase will translate into a 10%-15% increase in finished steel prices. Given the already high prices of steel, it will be interesting to see the effect on world demand. In 2007, China exported significant quantities of finished steel, and the general market sentiment is that China's demand for iron ore will continue growing at robust levels.

© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group. All Rights Reserved.

[cockneyrebel] 05/3/2008 19:46

Hmm, I think the theory was based on lots of oil tankers being ordered a year or two ago. The theory goes that all these hit the market just as the demand for oil plummeted, because all booms bust.

Firstly this is only oil tankers. Secondly a lot of these are double skin hulls that will replace old tankers, not add to the fleet. Thirdly, it only extends to tankers and not dry bulk carriers and demand for dry bulk looks set to grow expnentially with the growth in the far east imo.

I've held Clarkson several times over the past 7 years (then Horrace Clarkson)- you'll be amazed how many times the death of shipping gets predicted - yet Clarkson goes from strength to strength.

Even after CKN's decline of late, partly through legal battles, the PE is still over 10 - compare that with GOC.

CR

[slapdash] 05/3/2008 19:37

what exatcly is the shipping rates collapse in 2009 argumnet????

as far as I can see the only thing could be based on new ships exceeding demand or a reduced amount of demand from less trade

trade I think is growing at 9% a year so demand is strong...

on the supply side that is a big unknown... new ships are being buit yes but I would guess that new ship yards take a long time to build.... also there are lots of old ships which need to be replaced...

hmmm.... slap

[kinbasket] 05/3/2008 19:13

WD.

Try these two webcasts. One is a conference call with shipping analysts and the other is with the CEOs of some of the Dry bulk shippers. Most of what you are asking is covered. A must listen for investors here.

[wilddonkey] 05/3/2008 19:04

I'm guessing that new ship builds need to do some kind of "trials" to make sure they are fit for service, or are they put straight into service after construction ?

There's so much talk about a collapse in shipping rates for 2009+... does anyone have access (or know how to get access) to the forecasts for revenue made by the people ordering the ships ?

Who is it that has the ships on order anyway ? If I can get a list of a few companies I would quite fancy emailing them to find out what I can about their expected returns (I can hardly imagine this is sensitive information).

[robsy2] 05/3/2008 15:01

I imagine what is worrying investers is what will happen in 2009 and beyond, 2008 will be good but what about the shipping rates going forward?Clearly the market has some doubts about this.Maybe what is happening now is a short trem supply demand mismatch that will probably be sorted and overcompensated for within a year or two as new ships are built and delivered. The shipping rates will drop and so will profitability of the likes of GOC. So any thoughts on rates for 2009? Anyone got any insight into shipping supply going forward?
This is a cyclical business, feast and famine.Or maybe that is changing.....

[slapdash] 05/3/2008 07:53

bdi up again... no doubt this will be done as PI's sell.... strange world... slap

[cb7] 04/3/2008 13:49

14th according to my notes

[slapdash] 04/3/2008 08:12

BDI at recent high of 7878 slap

when are the follow up change of year end results for these dudes.. 15th of march if I am not mistaken??

slap

[cockneyrebel] 03/3/2008 20:55

I agree with slapdash - if anypunters are selling I'd love to know where they are going to park that cash.

CR

[harrykewell] 03/3/2008 19:31

All aboard!

Thanks for your comments guys. Keep it up. Still very cheap in my eyes and looks a secure divi earner. You would have to think that share price rise would follow at some stage.

HK

[bird of dawning] 03/3/2008 19:05

Absolutely....but then I guess the market is always on a 3 months time horizon?....or even less! Instead of shipping out punters should shape up (no pun intended!) and go for the longer term.....are we punters/speculators or investors?
Regards bod

[slapdash] 03/3/2008 18:41

I hate to sound like a patronisting idiot...

but people selling this now shouldn't really be in the stock market...

BDI is approaching 8,000... the P/E here for 2009 is 3X... the yield is I think about 15% for 2009...

speaks for itself slap

[cockneyrebel] 03/3/2008 12:17

Hmm, I disagree as to growth. A company like this can acquire ships and have the thing already booked for a year or two out before they even take delivery.

The divi policy looks exciting too - paying half annual earnings in divis. Shipping rates are likely to soar over the next couple of years as the world reslises we are not in for a global recession.

All that and they've just done 8.7p eps in H1. 20p eps can't be out of the question for the year.

So what? a PE of 6.5? a 7p divi? And I bet they can grow 20-30% p.a. with an expanding fleet. And shipping rates can soar on the sniff of the market getting tighter.

CR

[minuteman] 03/3/2008 12:04

I got stopped out of these a while ago, but can see that there doesn't look like much room for growth as it stands at the moment.

The fleet is virtually booked up for the year. therefore no more revenue streams coming in.

BDI is down off its highs, so rates are reduced for forward orders.

Sentiment is not good

Don't get me wrong its a good hold for the dividend, but as for anything short term, me thinks it's limited. imo, dyor etc

[slapdash] 03/3/2008 08:34

Incredible... the market just hands PI's a great stock that is lowly rated on a plate.... and they sell at the first sign of market weakness......

this P/e for this year I think is 5 and next year is 3... I guess the dividend for this year is 10% and I guess about 15% for next year........ earnings locked in so you get 25% + in dividends for holding it for three years.... and low P/E too....

slap