Global Oceanic Carriers Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 21/2/2008 12:34

Another plus point is the lack of posters/interest.

[cockneyrebel] 21/2/2008 12:29

I might do - I think these will get a rec in the press tomorrow, who was it that was very keen on them? The Daily Mail?

Look at that chart - screaming to go back to 150p sharpish imo.

Firming on L2 again.

CR

[kirkie001] 21/2/2008 11:39

Is anyone planning on calling into the conference call on the results at 4pm?

[slapdash] 21/2/2008 11:17

courant - glbs is more illiqued... also haven't seen proper accounts filed for them.... so will give it a miss... slap

[courant] 21/2/2008 09:51

Yes, it is a huge growth rate, but it's exactly as expected 6 months ago, given the forward charter coverage. The fundamentals of this industry are simply super attractive at the minute.

And yes, on a PE basis they are cheap (and I think they're cheap full stop!) but this business is more about assets and cash flow: ships have limited life and there's debt secured on them, plus the business is cyclical. GOC have to make hay now, because the picture may be different in 3 or 4 years time and most of their fleet (barring the 2 really old ships) will be good till 2020. That said, if you project future cash flows using conservative assumptions, you get lifetime annual real rates of return of the underlying fleet of at least 5%, which is hugely impressive.

GLBS is still cheaper :-)

Courant

[matt123d] 21/2/2008 08:38

Looks as though the market has taken them as impressive.

[cockneyrebel] 21/2/2008 08:36

I thought they were stunning - that's currently a huge growth rate on a PE of 7.5?

I think a few were flummoxed by the $ numbers at the open perhaps, buyers in there now. A divi based on the 7 months to Dec 31 on these numbers looks like 5p or so if they are paying out 50% of earnings as they say.

CR

[slapdash] 21/2/2008 08:22

i don't know if I would say figures were extremely impressive.. they were as expected.... but I think to a bystander who has come accross teh stock they appear impressive... i.e. profits rocketing etc...

if you came across a stock which had profits of $7m for six months versus just break-even before you woudl take note???

however, obviously this is a cyclical area so what p/e is warranted?????

in any event it is all sentiment so I think with writeups coming out on this stock and a dividend of say jsut under 5p... or around 4.5% paid out for 2007...a yield that should rise to I think about 9%+ for the full year 2008....people should hopefully buy the stock...

but of course all depends on freight rates and perception of company/management and sentiment....

slap

[cockneyrebel] 21/2/2008 08:16

I've added - stunning numbers - reckon Wins had a seller at the open who has cleared now

CR

[apetley] 21/2/2008 08:13

Slap, agree that the figures are extremely impressive.
Going forward I think we can be very reassured by the contracts already secured for the coming years.

[matt123d] 21/2/2008 08:10

Yes results look very good. Moving higher now.

[slapdash] 21/2/2008 08:09

results of course look impressive as we knew they would be.... key is going forward will there be net buyers of the stock...

also are forecasts upgraded/downgraded????? so about let us say 8.5p interim EPS.... well for a full year (double that) we would have 17p...

but I think next half is supposed to be much more than 8.5p.... we shall see...

I will certainly be listening into this conference call today...

slap

[cockneyrebel] 21/2/2008 07:55

Stunning numbers - 8p eps in H1 and a 5p divi?

Looks a screaming buy.

CR

[slapdash] 20/2/2008 22:37

well we all know tomorrow will show large increase in profits etc... the key is can this translate to a change in sentiment...

slap

[cockneyrebel] 20/2/2008 15:11

MM's paying 2p over the bid for stock

CR

[slapdash] 20/2/2008 13:56

will be interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow.... an illiquid stock so hard to call...

I would like to see it slowly edge up to 140-150p...

if they announce a good dividend that should spur confidence

slap

[cockneyrebel] 20/2/2008 10:38

Some chunky buys on Monday and someone took 107K of someone yesterday.

Interesting imo.

CR

[and then] 19/2/2008 13:03

Chart looking good now for a run, 25/50dma's turning upwards, roll on golden cross, Forward PE looks very conservative...

[cockneyrebel] 19/2/2008 11:20

More than that I'd have thought considering the cash return to shareholders thatthey have suggested.

Results Thursday I think.

Bought back in today.

CR

[simonparker5] 19/2/2008 11:09

With Goc's foward utilasation for 2008 at 83% and profits of 23p a share this should really be sitting at 140-150 IMHO.

[matt123d] 19/2/2008 11:06

Looking good, a few buyers about pushing it higher.

[courant] 18/2/2008 09:50

Last time I looked (after both GOC and GLBS had fallen back), GLBS was marginally cheaper on forecast PE, EV/EBITDA, P/Fleet Value. Plus has the positives of: younger fleet, more flexible fleet, lower operating costs, higher gearing (if you're a shipping bull), a couple of ships on the spot market and the potential to significantly boost 08 earnings (if you're a shipping bull, again!). Need to redo the figures, but you get my gist.

Sorry for the briefness, don't have too much time on my hands at the minute!

Courant

[slapdash] 18/2/2008 00:05

Courant - can't get forecasts as easily.. more illiqued stocks or seems to have high spread... appears to release quarterlies but I think reports in U.S. style accounting... but will look again...

courant... can you give me your thoughts on GLBS in more detail?? will look again at it..........slap

[courant] 17/2/2008 23:53

Slap, what don't you understand about GLBS? Same fundamental business model as GOC, only more attractively priced :-) (or, put a little better, with a more attractive risk/reward tradeoff IMO).

Courant