Global Energy Development Share Discussion Threads

[hezza123] 22/3/2016 10:20

Added a few more earlier. Over 50% discount to NCAV (62p) at these levels, which is a decent enough margin of safety for me. Hopefully the cash will be deployed effectively and the discount narrow.

[hugepants] 20/3/2016 20:50

I reckon this should be a win-win ie. if the oil prices stay low they SHOULD be able to pick up bargains eventually. If the oil price rises to say $50-$60 they'll have to consider reinstating their reserves.

[papillon] 15/3/2016 17:35

Bought some of these today. Massive discount to cash. Will they make good use of it? That's the big question.

[pavey ark] 02/3/2016 09:42

Having bought these last August I've now sold the last of them for a very small profit overall (very small).

The return of cash now looks unlikely and I'm certainly not happy with any oil purchase at any price.

I've been following the progress of electric vehicle technology off and on for some time but rather more closely in the last six months and this looks like being a major game changer for the oil industry (in spite of OPEC trying to play it down)

I doesn't take a massive adoption of EVs to displace a few million barrels of oil a day and the current "glut" is a result of only 1 or 2 million bod surplus.

Hard to see a recovery in the oil price and if it does recover my personal view is that it won't be a massive rise nor will it last.

A major conflict in the gulf would cause a spike but that would just accelerate the uptake in EVs


Just my view but "you pays your money you takes your chance"

Battery technology is improving by the day
Battery price is come down fairly dramatically
Air quality in urban areas is very bad due to car exhausts.
China is going big in renewable energy sources AND EVs

[hugepants] 02/3/2016 09:34

A secured loan at 12% doesn't look too bad

[fairman] 02/3/2016 09:07

But all this connected party loan stuff is a red flag.
- Increasing the amount
- extending the maturity

[hugepants] 02/3/2016 08:39

Balance sheet is stronger than I expected. Most of the liabilities have gone. In fact net liquid assets position (accounting for all liabilities) has only dropped $1.5M over 12 months.
Writing off the fixed assets the company has a 59p NAV which is mostly cash.
At the current 30p share price these should be a screaming buy especially since they are looking to acquire assets at the bottom of the cycle.

[mister md] 02/3/2016 08:10

I suppose there are opportunities to be had now, but need to act quick to acquire something good on the cheap ? Or is that not even their intention ?

[skyship] 02/3/2016 08:08

Looks like the usual suspect governance - directors want to continue with the gravy train rather than pay back cash to shareholders:
=====================================================

Finals Extract:

Conclusion

With regard to the Group's strong cash balance, there are a number of options for the use of the cash including, for example, utilising the cash for an acquisition or investment. Presently, the Board believes that utilising cash to unlock the value in existing assets of targeted energy sector companies may create the greatest long-term value for shareholders.

Mikel Faulkner

Chairman

[boystown] 02/3/2016 07:14

Surely it's time for this lot to pack up and go home? Even after ripping shareholders off in the usual way, we'd still see 45-55pps?

[wigwammer] 19/1/2016 17:01

Not sure how that's better - you now state the cash metric you use in 2662 is simplistic, and concede aey does trade at a vast discount to cash. Thanks anyway.

[loverat] 19/1/2016 14:07

I can do better than that. I held AEY for a while and it went nowhere, so am fully aware of the merits.

Time for you to think about what others are saying and beyond the simplistic multiples of cash.

GED has 23M GBP cash - up until a few days ago it had 15M cash in excess of the MC.

AEY has about 6.5M in cash - 4M cash in excess of the market cap.

The point being is that GED has meaninful cash. AEY has a few million which unless it goes back to shareholders - is likely to disappear quickly.

[wigwammer] 19/1/2016 12:05

Come on, loverat. At least look and think before commenting.Aey's cash is 3x the market cap.

[loverat] 19/1/2016 11:21

I'm not so sure about AEY. This one has meaningful cash above and well beyond its MC.

Anyway, I think given the continued fall in the oil market and no guarantee when it will recover, perhaps a return of cash is being considered here.

[horndean eagle] 19/1/2016 10:28

Is the rally ST induced? If not the alternative could be they are looking to wind up and return cash but probably not the best of ideas to rely on that.

[loobrush] 19/1/2016 09:28

Still way below cash at 67p

[wigwammer] 19/1/2016 09:21

AEY is a similar story. But hasn't rerated yet.

[wigwammer] 19/1/2016 09:21

8 shares then?

[spob] 19/1/2016 08:44

Twice in fact

[spob] 19/1/2016 08:42

Glad I doubled up here

[loverat] 19/1/2016 08:24

Only a matter of time on stocks like this. Even in these markets I was astounded at the massive fall here.

[loobrush] 18/1/2016 15:25

GED on the up investors beginning to realise how cheap this is

As Simon Thompson in IC noted last week
"However, with shareholders losing patience, the shares have drifted to such an extent that the cash pile is now almost three times the company's market value. In addition, the company owns property, plant and equipment valued at $22.3m on its balance sheet, so after deducting liabilities net asset value of $54.3m equates to £37.2m at current exchange rates, or FOUR TIMES times the company's current market value."
That's cash 67p a share plus assets.Share price 30p !!!!

[wigwammer] 16/1/2016 21:59

"Lessons learnt:1. Avoid Aim2. Avoid all oil stocks3. If cash > market cap, odds are cash will bleed to prevailing market cap and you won't see the implied value .4. Go back to rule 1."Sorry chap, but this is now a very consensual view.