Glencore Share Discussion Threads

[topazfrenzy] 11/11/2016 09:18

francois,

I'd be careful shorting miners and commodities as they may have much much farther to go. Whenever I have lost money big time it's been shorting so am now sticking to stock picking undervalued assets then watching them soar. Timing when spread betting shorts is paramount and unless one has unlimited leverage it's way too dangerous, I think I've now learned my lessons. Good luck however with your choices.

[swerves1] 11/11/2016 08:29

Maybe was good time to go short this morning!

[francoismyname] 11/11/2016 06:24

Yes went short.

Should have remembered the old saying that markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain liquid.

Will have another go shorting but maybe not for a few days.

[losses] 10/11/2016 21:00

Sorry to hear that mate... no one expected markets to react this way.. take it you went short?

[francoismyname] 10/11/2016 18:34

That was my quickest loss of £10k in a day.

[topazfrenzy] 10/11/2016 18:02

For those interested in tiddlers, check out #ZIOC, which has a JV with Glencore, it is one of the biggest and best iron ore projects in the pipeline. The share price for #ZIOC was over £2 in 2011 and is now around 3p, so huge risk reward for those interested. The market seems to have missed it so far. Over 73% of the shares are also locked in trust and therefore the free float is very small and there aren't that many shares. Also capitalised with cash for next couple of years while funding to develop the project is pursued.

Here is the latest presentation from September 2016
hxxp://www.zanagairon.com/pdfs/ZIOC-Investor-Presentation_21-Sept-2016.pdf

Good luck with your investments and sorry to barge in.

[losses] 10/11/2016 16:20

24p... 350-400 in this next few months

[umitw] 10/11/2016 16:13

Stocks are beginning to lose their sparks!Trump excitement is fading !

[arja] 10/11/2016 14:34

copper did pull back to 250.4 but now recovered to 254 and a really nice looking chart .

[arja] 10/11/2016 14:30

yes, much better to buy on a dip than to short unless of course a stock is overbought on the day for an intra day trade, eg maybe when GLEN hit 290 earlier today . But need to be spot on with timing to do that well .

[panic investor] 10/11/2016 13:29

on what basis ? metals are rising, indeed copper just broke out of down trend. Good luck with shorting miners at the moment.

Edit: added to that they have all been forced to look at the overall cost of extraction over the last couple of years. They had it easy, then they were nearly forced under, they have learnt - and fast !

[wantmorethan24p] 10/11/2016 13:14

a good SHORT this is noW.way OVERVALUED.

[losses] 10/11/2016 12:17

Arja... agreed been there too many times... now is not the time to sell in my opinion

[gxgxx] 10/11/2016 12:11

I do not see my post but 10 Cents was being reasonable not greedy

Glencore PLC (LON:GLEN) was the recipient three upgrades today as analysts reassessed prospects for miners after Donald Trump’s presidential victory.

Credit Suisse’s Liam Fitzpatrick upped his target price to 300p, from 250p, as he believes the recent re-rating of the shares has a lot further to go.

“As long as global growth is not derailed, the earnings trends and valuations for the mining sector remain compelling,” he argues.

For Glencore specifically, borrowing targets have been met, a dividend restart is imminent but the recovery in cash flows is yet to be fully priced in by the market.

“We understand investors' nervousness around high coal prices, but even under our conservative base case estimates the company should generate FCF (free cash flow) in 2017 of over US$4.3bn/10% yield and the underpin from marketing gives the group added cash flow stability versus peers.”

Jefferies, meanwhile, likes Glencore’s coal exposure and cited it as a reason for its upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’.

“While the recent spike in coal prices may be unsustainable, we think consensus forecasts are far too low (especially for coking coal).

"Higher than expected coal prices should lead to higher than expected prices for other commodities. We have increased our coal, aluminum, copper, zinc and iron ore price forecasts.”

The broker says Glencore is trading at a free cash flow yield of 8.9% in 2017 and 11.9% in 2018, while the reinstatement of the dividend when it reports full year results should be a positive catalyst”

“This stock should perform well over the next year and would recommend buying it at current levels,” it adds with 300p the target.

HSBC, meanwhile, tips Glencore as the stand-out, (along with Rio Tinto PLC (LON:RIO), in a comprehensive overview of the mining sector as the emphasis switches to cash generation in a low demand environment.

It too has a 300p price target and a ‘buy’ recommendation.

[v8vantage] 10/11/2016 12:05

gxgxx - Glen has just over 14bn shares in circulation, Doesn't the $4.3bn of free cash flow/10% yield referred to in the article imply a dividend of 30c per share, not 10c? Or am I getting carried away?

[arja] 10/11/2016 11:48

losses - do not get ahead of yourself as markets can turn suddenly . OK, chart looks good at present for a move to about 300 but who knows after that .

[umitw] 10/11/2016 11:27

Commodities well overbought IMO.

[foxy22] 10/11/2016 10:39

3.00 pounds today?unbelievable

[losses] 10/11/2016 09:05

Good luck younas... personally think 350-400 coming soon..Expecting ups n downs on the way lol.Divi announcement will bring in the big boys.

[younasm] 10/11/2016 09:00

My limit orders to sell completed this morning-- final one at 283.5p.Just have short positions left --- showing losses, but I can wait/adjust later in the year.Good luck -- most profitable stock of 2016 for me.

[shortarm] 10/11/2016 08:09

Copper flying!!!

[losses] 10/11/2016 08:07

I think 450-500 by next year

[gxgxx] 10/11/2016 08:06

Start today dealing madness - mayhem.
I am enjoying every second.
The Dividend announcement which must come any day will just fuel this rocket.
2 - £3 updates will soon be history.
Will £4-£5 put too much value on this company???

[losses] 10/11/2016 08:04

Mining Companies Seen as Winners After Trump VictorySource: Dow Jones NewsBy Alex MacDonald Mining and metals company stocks surged on Wednesday after the election of Donald Trump, as investors looked to the president-elect's promises to revive U.S. manufacturing and rehabilitate the country's aging infrastructure.Swiss commodities giant Glencore PLC was up 3% while the world's second largest miner by market value, Rio Tinto PLC gained 2.5%. ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, was up 3.9%.Overall, in London, the FTSE 350 mining index was up 3.4% compared with a 0.2% drop in the FTSE 100 index. Among the biggest winners here was Mexican precious metals producer Fresnillo PLC, which rose 9%."The market is telling you that the mining sector is the biggest beneficiary of a Trump election, particularly precious metals," said Jeremy Wrathall, senior analyst at Investec Securities.Mr. Trump had made rejuvenating the U.S. coal industry a large part of his platform, but that wasn't seen as the main factor driving global mining company stocks higher.Other reasons include a weakening dollar, making it cheaper to purchase U.S. dollar denominated commodities. Both copper and nickel were up 2.7% and 2.9% respectively.Over the longer term, investors expect Mr. Trump's promise to spend more on infrastructure, hospitals, highways and railways to result in extra demand for commodities such as copper, steel and aluminum. This "volume effect would take at least a year or so" to hit miners' earnings, said Mr. Wrathall.Mr. Trump has also called upon Mexico to pay for the construction of a long wall on the U.S. border and to revisit trade agreements with key partners to extract a fairer deal. The Mexican peso fell to its lowest level ever against the U.S. dollar as a result, following Mr. Trump's election.Mr. Trump's promises have appealed to many voters in the rust belt-states that were formerly a bastion of U.S. manufacturing but which are now suffering from increased competition abroad.It has also raised the specter of economic uncertainty among some investors who fear Mr. Trump's talk of protectionist trade policies and higher fiscal spending could hinder U.S. growth prospects, according to Liberum Capital analyst Richard Knights.Investors responded by piling out of the U.S. dollar to invest in gold, a safe-haven asset class that investors typically flock to amid economic uncertainty as a way to preserve capital. Spot gold was up 2.2% at $1,302 an ounce.The gold price rise spurred shares in West Africa's Randgold Resources Ltd. and Russia's Polymetal International PLC to rise 7.9% and 6.5% respectively.Fresnillo, however, climbed the most out of the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index given that it earns all of its revenue in U.S. dollars (through the sale of gold and silver) and incurs a significant chunk of its costs in Mexican pesos. This means its profit margin should expand in U.S. dollar denominated terms due to gold and currency movements.