Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[dr biotech] 16/1/2019 17:30

Vaccines don’t really have generic copies in the way that other medicines do either, so the patent cliffs aren’t so crucial. Just google generic vaccines for some decent articles. They are lower margin though.

Surprised Mylan haven’t updated the market on their generic advair yet. That’s a few months later than planned already. I know the people working on that in the uk..

[essentialinvestor] 16/1/2019 17:25

The estimated peak revenue may be in £ rather than USD, we are already
near £700-750 million.

[alphorn] 16/1/2019 17:12

Monty - that was not the point. A generic drug is (bio) equivalent to a brand-name product in dosage, strength, route of administration, quality, performance, and intended use etc.

The market penetration of generic launches (once the main drug goes off patent) can be extremely rapid and is a huge market (around USD 200bn in 2015 and growing at a CAGR of around 10.8 % from 2016).

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 17:03

They are really hyping it in USA. Its shortage is being blamed by democratic senator for NY on shutdown.

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 16:54

GSK vac 95% effective I thought I read, good luck any company trying to compete with GSK product.

[alphorn] 16/1/2019 16:33

Tm - thx for your replies.

I had read that a re-vaccination after 3yrs (?) may be recommended. Think still under consideration and separate from the initial doses. Will google when I have time.

I have some knowledge on Pharma IP and the layers of IP protection that are applied to the entities, process etc. Do you know when there could be the first date for generic competition for Shingrix?

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 16:28

That sounds reasonable based on proposed increase in production

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 16:16

We know Shingles vac already blockbuster 750m pounds, 1 billion dollars thats classed as blockbuster status, this will be a double blockbuster 2 billion dollars coming years easily. 1 in 3 will get shingles.

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 16:10

Currently in Belgiuom but French facility being upgraded.

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 16:07

Shingles vac a blockbuster as we know, I paid 130 pounds for private shingles jab.

[tradermichael] 16/1/2019 15:47

erm, isn't it made in Belgium?

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 15:14

Upgrading French facility for this aim

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 15:10

Significantly more than 1bn if they intend to produce vaccines in high teens of millions for USA market.

[tradermichael] 16/1/2019 13:57

Alphorn:
The situation wrt IP on vaccines is often complex, and I suggest that for Shingrix there may exist multiple elements of patent cover.

Just as there are many forms of vaccines and components to vaccines-particular compositions, delivery systems, components, and distribution networks-there are a variety of intellectual property (IP) protections applicable for vaccines. IP rights such as patent, copyright, trademarks, plant breeders' rights, and trade secrets may all be applicable to vaccines. Thus, discussion of IP rights and vaccines should not begin and end with the application of one IP right to a vaccine. The discussion should engage considerations of multiple IP rights applicable to a vaccine and how these can be utilized in an integrated manner in a strategy aimed at supporting the development and distribution of the vaccine. Such an approach to IP rights to vaccines allows for the integrated rights to be considered in light of the justifications for protecting vaccines with IP rights, as well as the issues relating to specific IP rights for vaccines, such as compulsory license regimes, available humanitarian purpose IP credits, etc. To view vaccines as the subject of multiple IP protections involves a refocusing, but the outcome can provide significant benefits for vaccine development and distribution.

[essentialinvestor] 16/1/2019 13:34

It's estimated at around $1 billion in revenue a year, Adavair it ain't!,
Helpful though.

[tradermichael] 16/1/2019 13:32

Alphorn: SHINGRIX is administered as a 2-dose series:
The second dose should be administered anytime between 2 and 6 months after the first dose to complete the 2-dose series as directed.1

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 12:51

Shingrix must be one of the main reasons for EW having confidence in a future GSK without consumer products.

It would appear to bode well for future but share is suffering short term.

[alphorn] 16/1/2019 12:07

That was an issue with Imigran; in some countries it was also given for headaches which, of course, did not work. An interesting snippet on that subject was that there were more migraines reported north of the Thames than the south at the time.

Btw does anyone have the IP details for Shingrix. When does it come off patent?
Also there may be a need for re-vaccination at a later date which would also help sales. Last time that I looked that was not clear.

[tradermichael] 16/1/2019 12:02

Because a second shot is necessary to give optimum protection, it is important that supply is maintained in existing markets to existing patients. Otherwise there is a risk of confidence in the product.

Advertising and new licence application activity etc. should be held back to interface with upscaled manufacturing capability.

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 11:47

Shingrix supply problems are hampering share price Such a pity as this an absolute blockbuster.

Will underpin gsk for years

[chessman2] 16/1/2019 10:29

Roger, there were unsound points made by both sides, probably more by the remain side and certainly more money spent by the remainers.

I’m pretty sure no government would trust us with another referendum in the future. What is also interesting is that many labour constituencies are split.

We do not get much press about the high level of EU youth unemployment and their economic woes which of course are continually ignored by Brussels. We must also realise that the unelected Brussels elite were always going to make it difficult for us to leave especially as we are net contributors. In the absence of a clean and managed break, Boris’ solution this morning appears to be the way forward.

[rogerrail] 16/1/2019 09:41

@WBthere is nothing in the concept of democracy that prevents decisions from being reviewed and an alternative course of action set. Those that spout off that another referendum is going against democracy especially when it is clear that the result of that vote was based largely on a load of half truths and political spin are in themselves being undemocratic in the furtherance of their own personal agenda

[philanderer] 16/1/2019 09:19

Stronger £ this morning.

Morning all.

[tradermichael] 16/1/2019 07:37

Exactly right wbecki

[philanderer] 16/1/2019 00:07

What WB said 👍