Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 20/12/2016 09:58

The ViiV valuation suddenly became more valuable!.

Although so did the put option.

Poor Gilead who not so long ago dominated this sector, not any more.

[ny boy] 20/12/2016 09:22

Yes good phase III results, onwards we go, vols winding down for the holidays now. Q1 should see some healthy buying interest

[essentialinvestor] 20/12/2016 08:48

Positive news for ViiV on the two-drug regime non inferiority trial.

This likely to be the next step in HIV treatment, reducing the number of
medications required to maintain viral load suppression.

[essentialinvestor] 19/12/2016 14:46

It's understandable why there is sometimes a conservative bias,
if your livelihood depends on your analysis, how you are viewed by your
peer group etc, perhaps easier to follow trend in those circumstances.

[alphorn] 19/12/2016 14:34

Analysts can sometimes make huge blunders.
Some years back I called in an analyst from a major IB who had issued a piece that move the pharma sector. There was a mathematical error in their models that gave a rubbish conclusion. There were red faces but it went under the carpet.

[essentialinvestor] 19/12/2016 14:12

Often, not always, analysts tend to be reactive and behind the curve.

In the case of GSK the Company was until recently lambasted for supposed lack
of innovation and new drug development, when even some
rudimentary research revealed the opposite to be the case, it just took sometime
for consensus to alter.

AZN frequently compared very favourably re GSK over the last couple of years,
AZN lauded for their innovation and exciting oncology pipeline.

Very few people pointed to the major risks with AZN- failure to commercialise
this potential would quickly leave the valuation looking very expensive.

[ny boy] 19/12/2016 12:49

I like the idea of growth, either way suits me, as bought for a long term hold. Keeping 80% in cash for any decent market correction in Q1/2 - 2017

[zho] 19/12/2016 12:28

Here's another one:

Claim that cost of hydrocortisone tablets has risen from 70p to £88 a tablet, costing NHS millions extra, comes after record fine for Pfizer

[essentialinvestor] 19/12/2016 12:03

The FT ran another article on pharma pricing yesterday,
the price gouging example given was jaw dropping, comparing the UK and US price for a
particular medication.
No GSK product has been mentioned in any example I have seen.

GSK are pricing US new product launches below the level of their medications
they are replacing/competing with.
The CEO again underscored this last week, also mentioning
market response (in take up) was very encouraging as a result.

My take on the dividend outlook is very different from consensus,
GSK better viewed as a growth company now.
There are two potential put options looming in ViiV and the Novartis JV,
a dividend rebasing in the context of an investment for growth strategy
is what I see- the market should respond very favourably, all just IMV only.

[philanderer] 19/12/2016 10:17

Agree with the pull back. Keep plenty of cash available for the time being and wait.

[tim 3] 19/12/2016 10:16

Good point NYB.

Still plenty of appetite for defensive high yielders.

The only time that would change is when interest rates rise considerably imo.

[ny boy] 19/12/2016 10:11

When the markets pull back after this Trump puff rally, gsk may see cash move in as a defensive play.

[woodhawk] 19/12/2016 10:03

My portfolio has done remarkably better in recent years - notably since I stopped taking any notice of brokers' recs. They're just noise.

[tim 3] 19/12/2016 09:59

Broker rec price targets follow rather than lead in my experience.

[essentialinvestor] 19/12/2016 09:38

Another Phase 111 study underway.

Broker recs as good as meaningless imv, they can alter price targets in the
blink of an eye.

2017 a big year for GSK with a new CEO and possible clarifaction of strategy
going forward, would expect another cost cutting programme to be initiated.

[ny boy] 19/12/2016 09:31

0n hl.co.uk web site broker recs.. shows 8 out of 15 as a strong buy

Chart resistance at 1715p

[philanderer] 19/12/2016 09:20

19th dec Jefferies buy tp 1700p cut from 1850p

[linton5] 19/12/2016 09:10

I agree ny

[ny boy] 19/12/2016 09:01

I have been buying this morning, support 1510p, looking for a move to 1700p+ next year and the divi is over 5%! ffs!

[essentialinvestor] 16/12/2016 13:55

More positive news for ViiV, would hope that is a limited demographic.

[essentialinvestor] 16/12/2016 08:54

Could have been this time next week, so hopefully out of the way before the 25th.

[essentialinvestor] 16/12/2016 08:19

On the Beechams Max Strenght today, at least the share price looks a little
better atm.

[philanderer] 15/12/2016 17:23

GlaxoSmithKline plc’s (ADR) (NYSE:GSK) Opens Its First Fully Dedicated Vaccines R&D Center In Rockville

[essentialinvestor] 15/12/2016 09:08

Approx 18x on the forecasts I use, however there are so many bloody ways
of calculating EPS now, core, non core etc.