Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[christh] 14/5/2015 12:27

WARNING
Avoid listening or taking advise from MONTYHEDGE.

Dangerous individual, clueless in all his advise and tips.
Ask him about his Sainsburys tips...or his BT advise with the rights issue which was telling people and never happen
.
Ignore him or filter him.

I find it very annoying telling people porkies.And misleading people...

AVOID/FILTER HIM
DO NOT REPLY TO HIS POSTS SO HE WILL GO AWAY

[wirralowl] 14/5/2015 11:50

Don't know where you get a PE of 26 from monty. Forecast EPS for this year is 88p, so @ 14.20 PE is 16.1 ?

And at 1050 the dividend yield would be 7.6%, highly unlikely unless we get a wider market crash.

[nick54] 14/5/2015 10:07

Am confused monty - is that £10.50 you're calling for gsk or for mobile streams
which you were calling a year ago - now 10p

[supermarky] 14/5/2015 10:01

Good post. I even gave you a thumbs up!

[cyberian] 14/5/2015 09:40

supermarky...you may be right but as I mentioned late yesterday I would add a few today after going XD, and rather surprised that I was able to secure some close to 1400p. Maybe as you say there will be further to fall with some looking to trade or play their luck with greater risks elsewhere. The market views (analysts/Institutions/small-medium sized investors) on GSK's forward strategy are quite varied but there is little doubt that the new Chairman will be closely watching from the inside with developments and if appropriate will act accordingly...he is no shrunken violet. Again, there is always the chance of a surprise which could result in a more encouraging view of events over the next year....however, the share price needs to find its base quite soon.

[montyhedge] 14/5/2015 09:37

P.e. 26 normally around 12. So in theory 700p, I'm being generous.

[supermarky] 14/5/2015 09:33

You drive a hard bargain!

[montyhedge] 14/5/2015 09:27

1050p forecast.

[supermarky] 14/5/2015 09:20

There is support at 1400 but 1300 is the biggie imo

[supermarky] 14/5/2015 09:19

Worrying how far this initially fell this morning. Much more than divi. This has further to fall imo.

[wirralowl] 14/5/2015 09:06

Had a little top up this morning at 14.07. Agree with much of anhar sentiments, and at this price gives me a yield of 5.69% for the next 3 years, which I'm more than happy with.

[steeplejack] 14/5/2015 08:37

Can't rule it out but ironically,the company will be at its most vulnerable when it can convince that it has a much improved product pipeline.Who needs to acquire Glaxo and why?Glaxo is the "vodaphone" of the pharmaceutical sector.In a way,it's best days appear to be behind it.Yet,Vodaphone addressed itself to concerns of it being something of a monolith by unlocking shareholder value by selling its interest in Verizon which arguably fuelled the shares recovery.By contrast,Glaxo has irritated with its change of plan to float off its HIV operations.Glaxo were standing at well over £20 as the new millennium started.The performance since has been abysmal and management must take responsibility for that.So,YES,I think (though Glaxo probably feels smugly safe in its mediocrity ) the company is very vulnerable to a takeover but it must be remembered the drug industry doesn't do "hostile"as a rule.

[christh] 14/5/2015 08:19

Will GSK be a takeover target?

Anyone any views on that?

Maybe a US or Swiss pharmaceutical go for Glaxo?

Glaxo has many brand products which bring a lot of profits.

[steeplejack] 14/5/2015 08:09

XD 19p first Qtr dividend today in UK.

[cyberian] 13/5/2015 14:14

ADR's have gone ex-divi today (us tomorrow) so don't panic with US fall today!! However, with the ADR divi added today they are trading at equiv. of 1462p...so not too bad! I also see someone (likely to be an Institution) appears to have bought 1 million shares at just above 1453p with the then share price at 1450p middle. Whatever, I will take my Divi tomorrow, and add a few more on the usual pull-back on going XD for holding through the next year. Interesting to see where the share price settles with the varied views on the company's forward strategy.

[dr biotech] 13/5/2015 10:59

I understand your point about healthcare costs in general. The western nations are facing a aging population and this will create stress on healthcare systems. It will also increase the market for cancer drugs though, as generally the incidence of cancers rises with age.

So I am not really convinced by Witty's reasoning. However I am perhaps more convinced of the benefits of vaccines over some other medical treatments that offer little or no benefit over older established medicines. Time will tell I guess.

[cyberian] 13/5/2015 09:32

anhar..I agree 100% especially the last sentence, and I sincerely believe that there are likely to be some upside positives. I also appreciate the individual comments after my MRI scan trailer, as that was purely meant to indicate what many here already appreciate, that there are significant changes happening in the commercial market place. Greater use of available/proven treatments, and far greater efficiencies in delivering them is critical. I believe that GSK has and is addressing all aspects of delivery within all its product deliveries. We just have to wait and see that this does in fact translate into profit growth. The goal of improved volumes targetted by GSK in the huge Asia markets (note: they are establishing extra production facilities in the region), and other developing countries is key and the growth in demand is pretty clear as Witty (supported by the Board) have indicated. Maybe the share price will drift a little until clear evidence is revealed over the next year or so BUT, the company's focus/plans are already in play and in motion.

[anhar] 13/5/2015 09:06

There is no guarantee on the dividend, if Witty is shown the exit
then expect a rebalancing of the payout with a new CEO IMV.

No ordinary share dividend can ever be guaranteed, especially three years ahead. You know that.

GSK has said it will pay 80p per year this year and the same for the following two years, plus a special for this year which should be about 20p.

Whilst these divis I agree could be altered, it is rare for a company to commit to three years payments in this way. So I conclude that it is far more likely than not that they will stick to the plan, Witty or otherwise. It follows that in my opinion these payments are very probably more dependable than divis from most other companies, not less.

[essentialinvestor] 12/5/2015 21:48

There is no guarantee on the dividend, if Witty is shown the exit
then expect a rebalancing of the payout with a new CEO IMV.

[philo124] 12/5/2015 21:16

The last thing the NHS needs is double and triple locks on it. It needs sorting out, as has been the case for years.

[tournesol] 12/5/2015 21:12

In discussing the cost of MRI scans, surely what is of most interest to investors is not the cost of an individual scan but the profitability of providing MRI scanning services - ie you have to factor in the number of scans that are provided and the cost/profit per unit. It is entirely possible for the cost of an individual scan to fall and at the same time for the profitability of scanning services to rise because costs go down and volumes go up.

The first time I had an MRI scan it was via the NHS. My local hospitals had so few scanners that I was quoted a waiting time of >6 months. I eventually went to a hospital 60 miles away which reduced the wait to 4 weeks. I was told that the scanners cost around £1 million each. I noted that the operation of the scanner was massively inefficient - there was just one team of staff and they worked 9-5 with an hour for lunch so the machine was used for only 7 hours per day. In fact the inefficient working process which had been adopted meant that there was about half an hour between patients. So only 14-15 scans were being done each day. And of course the thing ran only Mon-Fri so maybe 75 per week.

Last year I had a scan at a private unit at London Bridge. I booked it the day beforehand. I noted that the unit was running 7 days a week with every day being much longer than 8 hours and no downtime for lunch. I also noted that there was no interval between patients - we were processed very very time efficiently. Result - instead of 15 scans per day it was 25 x7 days = 175 per week. Clearly the profit potential of the second unit was much higher than the first. And because the prices charged were modest - £220 in my case - the demand from clinicians and patients was much higher.

As far as GSK is concerned a reduction in unit costs of medications can easily drive an increased volume which returns higher profits. This is particularly so when selling to developing countries where Western levels of prices will killl the market.

[dr biotech] 12/5/2015 16:13

Not sure the MRI term is relevant. Thats providing a service rather than a medicine, and in part is to cover the capital cost of the MRI and these have come down in cost quite a lot. Incidentally I had an MRI earlier this year and it cost me £240 - not a huge amount of difference.

For me the jury will be out for a while - I see it as a relatively low risk as the dividend will keep a platform on the price for a while, but I want to see signs of the increased volume before I would get any more. And thats going to take some time.

[jadeticl3] 12/5/2015 11:57

Bad day that cannot be GSK specific as both GSK and AZN have fallen by the same large percentage.

Sad all the same, but improves the divi for those getting in at 1435p

[bolador] 12/5/2015 09:43

This stock has taken to moving inversely with sterling so the recent rally of the pound on the election result has caused a drop in GSK. The earlier rise to 1640p went had in hand with the fall in sterling to the 140's v the US dollar.
Longer term the pound will probably fall against the US dollar, and short term there might be some profit taking on the pound making todays GSK price attractive.
There are so many problems ahead for the UK with the EU and Scotland uppermost.