|Geopark Holdings Ltd
||COM SHS USD0.001
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Oil & Gas Producers
Real-Time news about Geopark (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|tyler90: IMO this means they expect the share price to come under a lot of pressure over the next 3 months or so. What do others think?|
|tyler90: SJ, still around £5.60 after yesterday's news. This is around the same when it was announced to move the listing to NYSE. Since then all the good news and the extra capital raised for further investment in exploration has had no impact on the share price.Will keep saying this..the management need to look at proactively marketing the stock. There are too many good stocks out there and investors will not just appear. They need to be attracted!Absolutely no reason why the growth funds should not be fans of GPRK.|
|tyler90: Does anybody know if institutions over the pond are building a position in this stock or if it has had any good press. If not then the PR team need to get working...the whole idea of moving the listing was to get liquidity, more exposure and ultimately a higher share price. Was it not?|
|bbluesky: I know we have the share price graph but is anyone smart enough to make a prpoer new thread, as Geopark imv has always been worth following and whilst it is currently tanking, discussion would be good (and I personally miss the contributions). Two thoughts, firstly that I saw that the brazilian deal was to be extended, which did not read well but imv not the end of the world and the other is that the stags are bailing out (bitterly!)|
|tyler90: Still around 480 in sterling equivalent. Even after taking the dilution into account the share price is still too low. If GPRK continue with the (& no reason to suggest they will not) operational progress and their regular updates, the stock will attract friends very quickly and $8 will seem very cheap.|
|tyler90: PS I meant to say US investors and since there are more of them across the pond the interest in the stock even if it is proportionally greater will have an impact on the share price. As usual AIMHO and DYOR.|
|tyler90: Stevenlondon3, a lot depends on what your reason was for buying in the first place. The company have never promised a dividend and feel that capital growth will be better achieved by making the stock more liquid and listing in the US.I think this is the right move and will be the catalyst for propelling the company's share price. As I stated yesterday, institutions are getting a good discount at even $10 so I expect the offer to be oversubscribed and the price will be nearer $20 pretty soon.There, I have put my head on the block now haven't I?|
|tyler90: 'The company has determined that it will not implement the share consolidation contemplated in the Circular'...sensible move. This decision will allow greater liquidity for the stock. I can see the share price trading higher than $10 in a months time. Happy to hold and accumulate on weakness.|
|tyler90: Happy New Year to all! I have a feeling 2014 is going to be the year that GPK's share price is going to reflect the true value of the company....eventually!|
|zengas: Always liked the look of Geo-Park but after today the company certainly looks compelling (usual risks, dyor etc).
I've held a few Parex so decided to switch them into GPK today for obvious reasons.
Recent deals makes GPK look very cheap and with circa 60 mmboe P2 (circa 200 mmboe P3 category after latest Colombian acquistions) and massive exploration potential over 17 blocks (3 Argentina, 8 Colombia, 6 Chile = 17,850 km2 = 4.4m acres).
1st 10% of GeoParks Chile Upstream assets sold for $70m with a 2nd 10% sold for $78m all to the Koreans in 2011.
GeoPark stated that the Koreans deal for the part 20% sale of Chile quote "sets a valuation benchmark for GeoParks Chile business of $780m" (ie some $630m of Chile value remaining) page 10 Sept 2011 presentation.
This must leave the remaining 80% valued at circa $630m (£1/$1.59) or worth £396m to Geopark.
They have still circa $100m/£62.5m cash by the looks of things ($200m/£125m prior to Colombian acquistions).
The 2 Colombian acquistions this 2012 year cost $108m/£68m.
$133m/£83m of notes due on December 31st 2015 - over 3.5 years away.
80% Chile Valuation = £396m (based on 20% sold to Koreans for $148m), remaining cash = £62.5m + Colombian acquisitions =£68m = total £526m less £83m notes due end 2015 = £443m value - against current m/cap of £248m (42.5m shares in issue at todays closing price of 585p) and in my opinion undervalued by £195m or another 460p = imo upside to fair value which should be closer to 1045p and equal to that £443m valuation figure i arrive at.
In January 2011 the share price was nearly 900p and at lower production and without acquistions and 41.7m shares in issue (just 750k more shares now than a year ago - yet valued then at almost 900p - imo worth looking at the shape and direction of the chart now as the potential and deals made, deserve further recognition as to what GeoPark is doing)
Half 1 revenues to end June 2011 from Chile/Argentina operations was $41.8m.
Based on production increasing from 6300 boepd at end of Dec 2010 rising to 8,000 boepd end June 2011.
Production stated today 27/3/12 at 9500 boepd (45% is stated as oil on 2/1/2012 from Chile/Argentina so forward revenues now will be higher than end June 2011.
Full year revenue generation from Chile/Argentina should be in the region of $90m - $100m at todays rate production figure (using the supplied GeoPark figures).
The 14th Feb 2012 - $30m Colombian acquistion of Winchester Luna added 800 bopd net. They had revenues of $27m for 9 months to end Sept 2011 (so around $3m/month or $30m/yr of new additional revenue).
Todays 27th March 2012 - $78m Colombian acquistion of Hupecol adds 2000 bopd and their revenue was stated as $68m full year to end of Dec 2011.
Add these new Colombian revenue streams to the existing Chile/Argentina revenue stream and GeoPark is generating circa $200m revenues per year (from total current 12,300 boepd ) and you can see how the company is entering an entirely new phase .
I've given my reason for a valuation that should be closer to 1050p now. In fact Directors took shares in lieu of fees and certain benefits at nearly 700p in September 2011. A non exec director bought 130,500 shares at 480p in the October lows for a total of £626,000 and holds over 2.1m shares or 5%. Directors in total hold around 16% of GeoPark and with just 42.5m shares in issue imo fairly tightly held and the potential of the company overlooked by many .
New Colombian wells planned for 2012 operating year are put at 18 - 22 wells.
New Chile/Argentina wells planned for 2012 operating year are put at 17- 20 wells.
That's a whopping 35 - 42 new wells for 2012 that could have a material impact on production/reserves if only 33% come in imo. GeoPark have had a stated circa 70% successful drilling rate.
Someone asked about 100 posts back on how it could be a £1b company. I think Sailing John put it nicely that the Koreans had already paid the equivalent of £11/share for their share of Chile alone. Potential imo to grow this to a £1b+ m/cap company which would indicate a target (subject to continuing success) and if little dilution, somewhere in the region of £24. With 35 - 42 wells in this current year - then at the very least due to the number of blocks and acerage, there should be a significant number of further wells in the following year.
As a valuation barometer which shows why i also beleive GPK is also significantly undervalued -
Parex (Canada PXT) Colombia and Trinidad Ops.
at $7/share is valued at c$750m or £470m.
$93m/£58m cash at end of Dec 2011 and $85m/$54m notes due in June 2016.
Overall valuation m/cap + cash, less notes = £474m (which would equal £11.15 comparable to GPK) and again why i see them undervalued by about 460p and should be trading closer to 1050p and is indeed a 2nd valuation barometer to what the Koreans paid just on Chile.
Current oil production 12,500 bopd (all Colombia 8 blocks of various interests = 843,000 acres, no production in Trinidad but with interests in another 200,000 acres ). GPK produce 12300 boepd in total = 7,000 bopd + 5200 boepd gas = in real terms just about 2.5k bopd less that Parex overall.
Full year revenues to end Dec 2011 = $96.1m very similar or as close to GPK but now with GPK acquistions, revenues should almost double that of Parex.
Parex P2 oil reserves are just 10.7 mmbo at the end of Dec 2011 so GPK trounce them on reserves.
Parex 12 wells scheduled 1st half 2012 - GPK at least double that this year.
Perhaps the low shares in issue, spread and perhaps not that widely studied has left GPK somewhat overlooked and hoepfully that will change as it just appears much too cheap.|
Geopark share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange