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Real-Time news about Genbel S.A. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|miamisteve: I'm surprised at the share price action with VST. Last QD update seemed quite reassuring withg the encountering of a large potential payzone. Not expecting the $15+ figures some are using. But we shall find out shortly. Guyana and Egypt stories are far from over for GSA.|
|alexwest7: I smell no volume unfortunately. Interesting to see the decline in share price of all the K-2 partners gsa,cne,sgi all on insignificant volume. Seems no one is buying in expectation......Maybe Canacol shouldn't have said news this week as the later it gets in the week the more the nervous nellies come out.|
|robbo126: Much better share price reaction to last nights new here then over at VST.|
|robbo126: Would be nice! Especially if we have some good positive news at K2 to move to share price back to 60 odd cents, will ease all our nerves for QD, I bet!|
|alexwest7: Not a problem thelung, happy to help. I agree, but it did seem that the Egypt spud acted as some sort of catalyst in sparking the share price into life. At least we can be thankful that Egypt is no Libya, not just for the share price but the people too.|
|robbo126: The reason for Sagres' (should apply to GSA aswell, but we weren't named!) share price rise IMO..
Which gets us yet again to Sagres Energy, a junior in Guyana, and we've written about this play before...but never with Kozak talking about numbers this big. We now have to call SGI a lottery ticket, because while words like potential, possible and hoped for, if tiny SGI has an interest in a successful well in this play...this could be huge... or bigger...one of those plays speculators live and sweat for.
In Kozak's report were comments that would make a speculators heart rush and hands go sweaty. Sagres and their partner have the potential for size on their Guyana exploration play. "On their K2 well, they are targeting a prospect with 180 million bbls potential, with results expected in March (it spudded late December) and will follow up with a second well-the Rewa B, a prospect with 300 million bbls potential."
Yes Sagres has sold off more than most junior oils as a private placement has come trade-able, and constant delays have tested even the most patient speculator. And yes this was the play Home Oil drilled 30 years ago with some success, at least by standards of that day. It's a big old world out there, but amazing that of all the big speculative plays out there, two of the biggest this year will be SGI/CNE and CGX Energy, both in tiny Guyana. Which gets us to Union Securities analyst Warren Verbonac, who yesterday tells us his three favorite plays remain the same...Sterling Resources for its long list of exploration plays this year, and Winstar Resources which should be reporting results on their testing in a few weeks and Sagres Energy for their exploration potential. Yes Verbonac is the guy that discovered Xcite Energy (XEL) way back at 35 cents.|
|robbo126: I hope so Pana... although I can wait 45-50 days for the real fireworks to start!
I've just worked out (using my NAV) for the the 3 wells which are drilling (not including the larger prospects drilling next in both Guyana and Egypt and QD upside from the the CPR figure and the Teriary 64m net pay in QD) that we have an unrisked potential share price of $4.60 and a risked price of $1.53. Success on anyone of the 3 drills should underpin the share price at a price higher then todays, ready for drilling the other prospects.
So 50c - 60c pre results isn't too unrealistic if you ask me! :)
Edit: Forgot to add that we now know prospect B will be the 2nd prospect drilled in Egypt, this is the biggest of all the prospects on this license and could be worth around $2.60 unrisked, based on the P50 potential figures.|
|robbo126: Spnk, I can totally understand why you have done that, although I still have the opinion that the better value is still here. Here's why...
The risked value (My calculations, it serves me no purpose as an investor to be biased though, so they are pretty accurate) of GSA in total (all assets) is 748.76%, while the risked value of the 3 prospects they are / will be drilling in the very short term is 329.11%, at the current share price. The risked value of VST at it's current share price is 216.13%.
However, if you believe that VST will prove QD to be much bigger (on this drill alone) then the CPR has stated, then VST's risk value will slowly catch GSA's. So if you believe VST and GSA will prove QD to be 7bn OIP from the Cretaceous and 3bn OIP from the Tertiary then VST have a risked value of 533.46% and GSA have a risked value of 526.35%.
Hope this helps people understand the differences between the two investments and as ever, it's your own perception to which is the 'better' investment.
Good luck all.|
|robbo126: From memory, GSA should be trading at (around) 55% of Vast's share price if you only take into account QD. GSA's other assets would be valued at nil.|
|jfjfjf2: Robbo - Risky strategy, Canaccord are pumping Sagres and CNE with no mention of GSA. Sagres up 25% today thanks to that article, they won't be doing that for us. Just because a share is undervalued it doesn't mean it can't stay that way. Having said that, I share your enthusiasm for GSA, I have just over 150,000 (eek!! Who needs sleep?).
Vast is high profile and share price is more likely to reflect true value, I got into GSA as a way to increase my exposure to Vast at a discount but I do like the reassurance that GSA is no one trick pony.
Genbel S.A. share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange