Geiger Counter Share Discussion Threads

[drewz] 09/2/2014 11:27

Why I have recently started buying GCL (courtesy of Casey Research):

Energy Outlook: What's Hot in 2014

HOT: Uranium

During a recent trip to London, I spoke with Lady Barbara Judge, chairman emeritus of the UK Atomic Agency and an advisor to TEPCO on the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. I asked her point-blank whether Japan was willing to bring any nuclear reactors back online in 2014.

Her answer was an unequivocal "Yes." The Japanese have no choice, really, because the alternative-importing liquefied natural gas (LNG)-is far too expensive.

Japan is the world's largest importer of LNG and has had to double its imports since the Fukushima incident. For that privilege, the country pays some of the highest rates on the planet-almost four times more than what we pay for natural gas in North America.

South Korea also shut down its nuclear plants post-Fukushima to do inspections and maintenance upgrades, and it, too, has had to import a lot of LNG. Both countries are looking to restart their nuclear reactors so they can stop paying a fortune to foreign energy suppliers. When these countries restart their reactors, they'll also restart the uranium market, so we expect uranium prices to begin to shake loose of the doldrums this year.

Another driver will be throwing the switch at ConverDyn, the US uranium facility that is slated to start converting natural U3O8 to reactor-ready fuel in late 2014 or early 2015.

We currently hold two solid uranium companies in the portfolio-one is a US-based small-cap producer (one of the very few in America), the other is the lowest-risk way to play the uranium market that I know of. Both, we believe, will take off in 2014 on the renewed interest in uranium and the associated stocks.

[tonsil] 15/1/2014 22:23

current moves are just closing the discount to NAV gap. Smart purchasers getting into quality U stock at a good discount before the bigger moves up over the years.
Me i just want to recover my losses

[gokelstone] 15/1/2014 20:31

really good to start seeing some up upward movement here. I guess this year WILL see the return of u308 and about time too!

[tonsil] 15/1/2014 16:59

latest fact sheet




ADVISER COMMENT
Announcements of supply cut-backs by two of the world's top uranium mining groups provided
welcome news during the month. Due to the current unattractive price environment, Kazatomprom
announced spending cuts which will halt its expansion plans. Similarly, Russia's ARMZ group
indicated that it was shelving expansion projects and curtailing production at some of its operating
mines in Russia, the US and Australia.

Notably, TSX-listed Energy Fuels indicated that it was placing its White Mesa mill on care and
maintenance and that it would fulfil supply contracts by acquiring products on the spot market.
Though involving small volumes, such action may prove attractive for other higher cost operators.

Elsewhere it was leaked that Goldman Sachs was seeking to offload its uranium trading business
which, depending on the buyer, could increase the cost of capital for the physical traders thereby
boosting prices.

The spot U3O8 price traded up US$1.9/lb to close the month at approximately US$36/lb. The
improvement in sentiment was reflected in the price of the Uranium Participation ETF which traded
up to an 11% premium to the value of its underlying physical holdings. The fund NAV was barely
changed at 30.48p.

T O P F I V E H O L D I N G S
Gross Assets

1. Uranium Energy 11.0%
2. Fission Uranium 9.7%
3. Cameco CAD 9.6%
4. Uranium Participation 9.6%
5. Denison Mines CAD 8.5%


Top 5 Holdings Represent:

48.4%

Total Number of Shareholdings: 55

[tonsil] 15/1/2014 11:16

small bull run starting in U stocks - this will continue thru 2015

all downtrend indicators are now broken and a ne up channel has started
volume is up by factor of 5

[tonsil] 18/12/2013 08:02

CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT - FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2013

General outlook

There is a growing belief that had Fukushima happened in any other
country than Japan, a much more positive commentary would have emerged
from the event. Consider the facts:-

1. Age of reactors involved - Forty two years

2. Number of fatalities - nil

3. Cases of people affected by serious radioactivity - nil

To understand why the operators of the nuclear reactors, Tokyo Electric
Power, have not adopted a more positive approach, it is necessary to
understand something of the Japanese psyche. Although the events were
brought about by one of the worst tsunamis in history; the company
adopted a typically honourable Japanese stance and accepted
responsibility for this disaster. To a certain extent this was correct
insofar that the reactor might well have been de-commissioned by that
time. Modern technology decrees that the current design of reactors has
made them hugely more efficient and capable of resisting extreme weather
conditions. I have no doubt that given the lack of environmentally
acceptable alternative sources of energy, it is only a matter of time
before a new strategy for nuclear power will be implemented led by the
Government of Japan.

In the meantime, the markets for both the commodity and the relevant
shares, remain subdued. In spite of China continuing to expand its
nuclear capacity and even the UK embarking on a new policy, sentiment
remains less than positive. It would appear that the spot price for
Uranium has bottomed at around the US$35 per pound level but until it
shows definitive signs of appreciation, share prices will remain around
the current low levels. Although my observations might be interpreted as
somewhat cautious, I am, in fact, an unrequited bull. In the long term I
have no doubt that countries other than China eg Argentina, South Africa,
Finland and Saudi Arabia will adopt a similar policy embracing the fact
that modern technology had made the sector an integral part of safe and
competitive energy.

Revision of Fees

The Board is only too conscious that the market capitalisation of the
Fund has fallen considerably over the last two years and following
consultation with the investment manager agreement has been reached to
reduce the management fee from 2 percent to 1.375 percent effective from
1 January 2014.

The Board has also agreed that as from the same date our Directors' fees
will be reduced by 20 percent as a contribution towards reducing the
total expense ratio.

Continuation Vote

At the forthcoming Annual General Meeting expected to be held in March
2014 shareholders will be given the opportunity to vote on the
continuation of the Company. Although the following year will continue
to be a challenge the Board will be recommending that shareholders vote
in favour of the continuation resolution as the underlying fundamentals
remain attractive in the medium to long-term.

Finally..I would like to thank the Company shareholders for their
continued support, my fellow Directors for their diligence and our
advisers for their advice and guidance over the last year.

George Baird

Chairman

December 2013

INVESTMENT ADVISER'S REPORT - FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2013

The spot price of uranium appeared to be bucking the trend of a
depressed resources market by holding the $40 per lb level for most of
the year. In July however it fell to a seven year low as the delays in
restarting the Japanese nuclear fleet weighed on market sentiment. We do
not believe that this price is sustainable over the long term as this is
below the cost of production for many existing mines and certainly below
the level required to incentivise new mines to be built or to be
profitable.

Uranium equities followed the spot price lower and were also caught up
in the general resources malaise, particularly the smaller exploration
companies. It was encouraging, however, to watch the market's reaction
to the Patterson Lake South discovery and the performance of both owners,
Alpha Minerals and Fission Uranium. Despite the falling market, Fission
more than doubled and Alpha rose more than 1500% over the year. This is
fast becoming a tier one deposit and the recent history would suggest
that it may well end up in the hands of the majors. The strategic
players have displayed a much more positive view of the Uranium market
post Fukishima with Mantra Resources, Extract Resources, Kalahari
Minerals and Hathor Exploration all falling to bids from the larger
producers. This trend continued this year when Uranium One was acquired
by a subsidiary of Rosatom, the Russian parastatal. Such deals will also
be helped by the recent change in legislation that now allows foreigners
to own producing uranium mines within Canada.

Two and a half years on, the shadow of Fukishima lingers over the
nuclear industry and it does need a leader to forcibly present its case
as the low cost, reliable, carbon neutral and safe source of base load
power.

Recent announcements regarding the UK's nuclear future are positive, and
we are very mindful of the focus on air quality by the new regime in
China for the nuclear build within that country.

We believe that the nuclear industry has an important place in the
energy mix going forward and that a higher price of uranium is required
to produce the necessary supply. With uranium equities shunned by
investors and trading at compressed valuations, any upward move in the
spot price could be amplified as interest returns.

Will Smith

New City Investment Managers

December 2013

[tonsil] 14/11/2013 12:44

From Cameco results conf call

The good news is that the Japanese reactor restarts continued to edge ever closer to reality. As of today, 5 utilities have applied to restart 14 reactors, and Japan's regulatory body is currently carrying out those evaluations. As one of the biggest catalysts for improvement in our industry, this is important progress that we are pleased to see.

And while it certainly doesn't capture the headlines as much, there continues to be growth in our industry, significant growth, in fact, to the tune of 69 reactors under construction today. China is leading that growth with 30 reactors under construction, having started on 2 more just this past quarter. India, South Korea and Russia are some of the other countries with aggressive build programs. As a result, by 2022, we expect over 90 net new reactors to be added to grids around the world. As we've said before, it's just a question of how long it will take for that growth to become the more dominant force in the market than the challenges currently being faced.

So for the time being, we've pulled back our own growth and have put serious cost restructuring into place. But let me assure you that we have not lost that forward focus. We still want to preserve the ability to be rewarded over the long term for the industry growth we see coming our way. That's why you see us taking the path we're on now, continuing with our plan to increase production, but in a more moderate way, the way that is appropriate for today's market conditions.

So just before we move to questions, I'm going to ask our CFO, Grant Isaac, to say a few words about our cost of sales and our average realized prices, both of which have generated a few questions. Grant?

[p1nkfish] 24/9/2013 17:31

I think they might be looking for new bombed out investments and want to raise capital to exploit them.

[energiser01] 24/9/2013 11:55

Its always possible, but I think until U price shows some sustained improvement they would get a luke warm reception, more likely to increase gearing I'd guess to improve any bounce back in the short term (next 6 months)..

dyor etc...

[p1nkfish] 23/9/2013 23:33

Any feelings for a cash raising at GCL?

[energiser01] 23/9/2013 11:58

Update Fission.

Is now GCL's 2nd biggest holding as of 31/8/13 @ 9.9% of trust nav, up from 7% in July(not sure what's going on as Cameco has dropped from 13.1% to 6.4% - was it sold down on cigar lake delays?

Fission Hits 5th High-Grade Zone; 7.62m Total Composite Off-Scale in 76m Total Composite Mineralization

Full release @ hxxp://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=62815446&cp=off&webmasterId=101020


KELOWNA, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Sept. 23, 2013) - FISSION URANIUM CORP. (TSX VENTURE:FCU)(OTCQX:FCUUF)(FRANKFURT:2FU) ("Fission" or "the Company") the Operator, and its Joint Venture partner Alpha Minerals Inc. are pleased to announce the discovery of a fifth zone of high grade uranium mineralization with off-scale radioactivity on its Patterson Lake South (PLS) property in the Athabasca Basin, Saskatchewan. The first hole on line 585E, PLS13-098, intersected 76m total composite mineralization, including 7.62m total composite off-scale radioactivity. The R585E Zone is located approximately halfway between the R390E and R780E zones: 150m grid east of easternmost edge of the R390E Zone (PLS13-078 on line 435E, see news release August 22, 2013). PLS now comprises five separate zones on strike of each other along a 1.05km trend.

This is also worth a read for the m&A around denison, mega, rockgate, fission, alpha etc.

hxxp://resourceclips.com/2013/09/20/ambitiously-acquisitive/

dyor etc..

[tonsil] 17/9/2013 19:16

Low U price background info

I am calling the bottom here as the HEU program is terminated when the last delivery was made this August

While long-term demand is steadily growing, short-term demand is affected in a large part by utilities' uncovered requirements. Utilities normally purchase the majority of their fuel requirements under long-term contracts. To the extent that they have uncovered demand in the near term, they will purchase on the spot market which in turn affects the spot price. Currently, there is relatively low uncovered demand, so utility buying is purely discretionary and price driven.

Primary Uranium Supply
Uranium supply is the biggest variable in the supply-demand equation. During the time that the accumulated inventories from over production in the 1970s were being drawn down, primary mine production accounted for only approximately 50% of demand. A number of new mines have been brought into production over the last few years while others are in various stages of development. However, production still only accounts for approximately 70% of demand and many more mines are required to meet the increasing future demand and to replace mines that are being depleted.

UxCo has estimated in its "Uranium Market Outlook – Q2 2010" that existing mine production plus new planned and potential mine production will increase primary uranium supply from 132 million pounds in 2009 to 225 million pounds in 2020, falling short of expected demand of 255 million pounds per year.

One of the key factors currently impacting the supply/demand picture is the growth in primary production. In 2009, according to UxCo, worldwide production increased by 16% to 132 million pounds U3O8. That level of growth was higher than expected and contributed to the pricing softness. Nearly 80% of the increase came from Kazakhstan where a number of joint venture mines ramped up production during the year. Production increased so much in Kazakhstan that they are now the number one uranium producing country in the world, stealing the title from Canada, which had held it for the past 17 years. But industry analysts do not expect Kazakhstan to maintain that level of growth. Analysts speculate that they may have already developed their best assets and those that remain may have a variety of technical, operational, and infrastructure challenges, which would require higher uranium prices to support their development.

Primary mine production currently supplies approximately 70% of demand. The balance of demand is supplied from secondary sources such as remaining excess commercial inventories, reprocessing of spent fuel, inventories held by governments and the downblending of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) from nuclear weapons programs. By far, the most significant of the secondary supplies currently is the 18 to 24 million pounds per year being provided from the HEU downblending program. The HEU program is scheduled to terminate in 2013. The supply gap created by this termination will need to be made up from new primary mine production.

Excess commercial inventories, which were once one of the major sources of secondary supplies during the period from the early 1970s to the early 2000s, have largely been consumed. The disposition of government inventories held by the United States and Russia will have a market impact over the next 10 to 20 years; however, the rate and timing of this material entering the market is uncertain.
Reprocessing of spent fuel is another source of secondary supply but is expected to satisfy only 3 to 4% of demand. Expansion of this secondary source would require major investments in facilities which could only be supported by a significant increase in long-term prices.

UxCo expects that secondary sources of supply will fall from 52 million pounds to 19 million pounds per year from now to 2020.

[energiser01] 17/9/2013 14:19

Update Denison & Rockgate.

As of 31/3/13 GCL held 600,000 Denison (1.8% of NAV)and 4,297,500 Rockgate (2.4% of NAV). However since then Denison did the deal with Fission (prev 8% of NAV 31/3/13). So we can not be sure of exact holding, although if the trust still holds Denison it would be no more than 6% as it was not in the top 5 hodlings as of 31/7/13. Rockgate may have been added/reduced in the intervening period also.....

Full rns @ hxxp://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=62712089&cp=off&webmasterId=101020

Denison Announces Superior Takeover Offer for Rockgate Capital Corp.

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Sept. 17, 2013) - Denison Mines Corp. ("Denison") (TSX:DML)(NYSE MKT:DNN) (Currency: CAD$) today announced that it intends to make a takeover bid to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Rockgate Capital Corp. ("Rockgate") in exchange for shares of Denison. Under the terms of the offer, each Rockgate common share will be exchanged for 0.192 of a common share of Denison (the "Offer") with an implied value of $0.23 per Rockgate share and a total purchase price for all outstanding Rockgate shares of approximately $26.7 million.

The Offer represents a 47% premium over the closing price of Rockgate shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange (the "TSX") on September 16, 2013, the last trading day prior to Denison's announcement of its intention to make the Offer and a 38% premium to both companies' trailing 20-day volume-weighted average prices ("VWAP").

dyor etc....

[tonsil] 12/9/2013 10:23

Excerpt from Energy Report: During your last interview in January, you, along with many analysts, were expecting that 2013 was going to be the turnaround year for the uranium market. With the current price hovering around $35 per pound [$35/lb], what's it going to take to get this market moving?

Rob C: The uranium spot price has not moved as quickly as we were forecasting. However, uranium equities have shown some strength over the past year or so, as investors started buying ahead of the uranium spot price moving. Spot prices depend more on utilities and their short-term requirements, which translates into their activity in the spot market. However the spot market accounts for a small portion of the total market. Most transactions occur in the long-term prices, and the long-term contract price is at a healthier level in the $50/lb range. We believe the uranium spot price is currently below the marginal cost of production and therefore unsustainable, as half the producers around the world are losing money.

What's really going to drive the price higher is utility demand. Most utilities will go back into the market at some point to buy more material. We expect that will happen later this year or early next year. For this year, we're forecasting roughly flat to slightly higher prices if buying activity does heat up, and a much higher price next year, starting in Q1/14 or Q2/14, depending on how quickly utilities move. We are very bullish and forecasting an average 2014 uranium spot price of $49.50/lb. Investors primarily focus on spot prices, but they really should be looking at the long-term price instead.

TER: On August 21, the Russians made their final shipment of LEU [low enriched uranium] under the Megatons to Megawatts HEU Agreement. This was one of the milestones many were looking for as a positive market catalyst. Is this going to help the market?

RC: This eventuality has been baked in for four or five years now, but the generalist investors who don't focus on resources may see this as an important milestone and start looking at uranium.

[tonsil] 06/8/2013 06:36

This page shows uranium production by country:

[tonsil] 06/8/2013 06:28

The spot uranium price for U3O8 reached a 7-year low last week at $36.50 per lb. Those who have followed the uranium sector know that uranium prices collapsed after the Fukushima incident in 2011. However, I believe the odds favor a rise in uranium prices in the long-term for the following reasons.

1) Japan will be restarting some of its nuclear reactors perhaps as early as this year. Following the Fukushima incident, all of Japan's roughly 50 nuclear reactors were shut down for safety reasons. Earlier this month, however, Japanese utilities have applied to reactivate 10 of those reactors. The Japanese central government supports the reactivation. It may or may not happen in 2013, but expect this first wave of reactors to be activated by 2014 with perhaps a second wave to come sometime after.

2) New nuclear reactors are being built across the world and will come online in the next several years. Currently, there are over 430 nuclear reactors operating around the world. 64 new ones are currently under construction. More than 150 are in the planning stages and 300 more have been proposed according to the World Nuclear Association. It takes several years for a reactor to be built, but demand will increase in the next several years as these reactors come online.

3) Uranium mine supply has fallen short of global demand for many years now. In 2013, global demand is expected to be 170 million lbs, growing to 220 million lbs by 2022. The shortfall has been made up by Russia's Megatons to Megawatts program, which converts highly-enriched uranium from Russian bombs into low-enriched uranium used by nuclear reactors. Russia is expected to supply about 24 million lbs of uranium this year through this program. The agreement with Russia ends at the end of this year leading to some uncertainty about future supply in 2014 and beyond. More than likely, a new agreement with Russia will be reached, but as of today that has not happened.

4) New mines need a uranium price of at least $60 per lb in order to justify the costs of developing and operating them. Uranium prices thus need to increase by more than 50% to make building new mines economic.

In the US, if you're looking at any new production, you're going to probably need $65 to $70 uranium

[p1nkfish] 29/7/2013 14:11

Would be an idea if they cut the exorbitant management charge.

[p1nkfish] 27/7/2013 08:22

Money wasted on ausgold?
Looks like a gonna for as long as it will take to be useful.
Repeated t/o of key personnel.
That value looks like toast.
Anyone disagree?

[defcon3] 26/7/2013 13:58

Tick up again. Nice to see some blue!

[defcon3] 25/7/2013 21:21

Tonsil, thanks. I'll have a look as seeking alpha.

[tonsil] 25/7/2013 16:48

there are some very encouraging long articles on Uranium miners on Seeking Alpha
eg DNN - Dennison Mines in your dummy portfolio will bring them up - well worth a read. Encouraged me to invest directly in DNN alongside GCL. Just discovered you can invest directly in US stocks in HL accounts - they kept that quiet.

[defcon3] 25/7/2013 12:47

I hope so. Added a little more to my holding this morning

[tonsil] 25/7/2013 12:16

long overdue signs of life today - is the bottom behind us now? i believe so.