Gear4music (holdings) Share Discussion Threads

[suetballs] 10/3/2017 09:28

Looks like I got in tad too soon but still optimistic here.
Suet

[dgbell7] 10/3/2017 07:45

Small company shares can be volatile, often for no obvious reason, but the story hasn't changed' last trading update was fine. Looks like a buying opportunity to me.

[ksharlandjiev] 10/3/2017 07:08

This one I'm talking about. They are selling just a few shares but still holding 7.88% of the company.

[ali47fish] 09/3/2017 22:17

please kshaarlan which rns are you referring to- the only one i can see is the about old mutial reducing their holding?

[jitters3] 09/3/2017 20:21

Yep his password was cheeese

[ksharlandjiev] 09/3/2017 20:08

Well I must admit I was a bit worried with today's drop and I almost sold my position.Now after readings today's RNS I'm glad I didn't! It is amazing how our emotions can effect our decisions especially if your day was not so great!PS: I thing Paul's twitter account has been hacked :)

[melton john] 09/3/2017 19:08

Took advantage to buy more. Plenty of shares being held up by hot air eg DGB but this isn't one of them.

[ksharlandjiev] 09/3/2017 18:40

Old Mutual has sold few shares but nothing drastic. They still have a good chunk in this growing business.Today's fiasco is clearly a result of their sell.

[rathlindri] 09/3/2017 16:19

Anyone care to make a prediction for the final results in May?

[thevaluehunter] 09/3/2017 16:02

The last trading update was as follows: “the Board is now confident of delivering profits for the year marginally ahead of our increased expectations signalled in January”

The analyst coverage section on their investor website expected EBITDA at £3.2m back in January so I would expect ebitda of say £3.4m-£3.6m which would give an EV/EBITDA of c30x for the year to Feb-17 and I reckon c20x for the current year (FY18) which I think is pretty cheap for a company growing at this rate into new markets.

Also I think the Jan-16 and feb-16 the sales comps were very tough which probably impacted the jan/feb17 sales growth %

[hydrus] 09/3/2017 15:52

No it's not. It's on a trailing PE of about 55 for the year just finished. Then for this year (2017/18) the PE obviously depends on growth rate. Assuming 40% growth then it would be on a PE of around 30/35. However operational gearing may mean profits grow much more quickly, so PE could be a lot lower.

[che7win] 09/3/2017 15:11

Yes, these growth stocks well overvalued.

Current P/E an unbelievable 207, moving to a still unpalatable 68 in 2017 earnings, then 54 2018.

So 2018 PEG is 2.2.

Chart has keeled over, 350p target gets it to a P/E around 30, still high but more realistic IMHO.

[rackers1] 09/3/2017 14:59

broken uptrend
£4.00 here we come

[thevaluehunter] 09/3/2017 14:56

A bit of profit taking today I expect. In terms of the sales growth going fwd I just had a quick look on semrush and the prior year traffic comps look pretty flat (for the uk domain) from feb to july 16.

[suetballs] 08/3/2017 09:58

Topped up this am and looking forward to the ride.
Suet

[hitsha1] 07/3/2017 22:14

G4M huge potential, massive upside, boooom

[johnyee 7] 07/3/2017 22:03

Paul, off topic, any chance you could have a look at this new float and see what you think.Thanks

[paulypilot] 07/3/2017 19:37

valuehunter,

Remember though that this year's figures will include costs for setting up the new regional hubs. The benefit from them should then flow through in future. So at this stage of development, I wouldn't obsess over the detail.

The ultimate prize is that this could/should become a £200m+ turnover business in the medium term, and considerably bigger in the long run. Margins then move to a higher level once the business is established, and can reduce its marketing spend.

Therefore ultimately I imagine the net profit margin here could rise to say 10%?

Also, I think there's scope to greatly broaden the product range. So it doesn't need to necessarily remain fixed on the current niche market. The key thing is that an efficient & effective eCommerce business is being built here, and growing rapidly. That deserves a considerable premium rating.

I think eCommerce businesses are being valued more on top line growth, and to a certain extent the PER has gone out of the window. Just look at MYSL - that's on a PER of something like 260! But investors like that they are building a growth platform (slower growth than G4M too).

I'm not saying this share price at G4M should necessarily go up any more for now - I quite like it pausing for breath. But this is a stock that Instis want to buy. There's not much liquidity, so the only way they can get stock is to aggressively push the price up.

Regards, Paul.

[thevaluehunter] 07/3/2017 14:00

I'm just having a read of the analyst coverage listed on their investor section of their website and they have ebitda of £3.2m in for FY17 which would imply £1,862k ebitda for H2 with an ebitda margin at 5.4% of sales (H1 FY17 ebitda margin was 6.2%). This is a bit surprising because I think the margin normally goes up for H2 because of the xmas sales weighting (EBITDA margin: H1 FY15 -2.9%, H2 FY15 7.1%, H1 FY16 1.7%, H2 FY16 6.4%)

[suetballs] 07/3/2017 11:11

Still bouncing and will top up when in receipt of funds from a unit trust sale.
No more rises until then please!
Suet

[woodpeckers] 07/3/2017 11:04

Joined the party, nice dip for entry, managed to get some at 624p this morning,GLA.

[rathlindri] 07/3/2017 10:10

Nice bounce this morning

[bigbigdave] 07/3/2017 10:10

Nonsense dip yesterday, perfect time to add imo.
Transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.