Gear4music (holdings) Share Discussion Threads

[taurusthebear] 29/10/2016 17:38

Think at 375p it could be lower than a next fy PE of 30, myself. I'd say closer to 20.

Supposedly not selling in a certain timescale is disingenuous, IMO. I'd sell out if this rose to a tenner by Xmas. And look what happened with BOO...

As for the weak £, it's already been stated that own brand are bought in $, so it depends what % of sales these constitute. :0)

[dgbell7] 29/10/2016 16:31

As someone who follows Paul's blog it seems to me G4M is the keenest he's been on any share since BOO (which has gone up almost 5 fold since he tipped it.) I am looking to accumulate and hold here.

[paulypilot] 29/10/2016 13:49

I think the January trading update could be the catalyst for the next move up.

We know the company is trading its socks off, and has had a short term boost from Brexit too - because existing stock can either be reduced in price in Europe (now about 40% of total sales, and rising extremely fast) to stimulate demand, or the company can bank extra margin.

True, higher cost prices will feed through in due course (due to weaker sterling), but the CEO/FD didn't sound at all worried about this at the recent meeting.

By the way, a point I meant to mention before. The gross margin is published as being 26.6%. However, this is stated after absorbing carriage costs. So the product margin is actually a good bit higher, at 31.4%.
One of the reasons for opening warehouses in Europe, is to reduce carriage costs. So expect the published margin to rise in future. Although of course distribution costs will rise on the P&L due to rent, wages, etc on the new warehouses.

Furthermore, own brand products will increase over time, so these are higher margin, so again, another reason to forecast an improving gross margin in coming years.

I also agree with above posters saying that G4M shares which short-term traders are dumping will be mopped up by institutions (and long-term holders like me, topping up). Just look at the appetite to clear out Key Capital Partners' stake, plus the ease with which some Director sales were absorbed.

There again, the Director sales were trivial, apart from the 400k sold by the CEO. The fact that he retains over 39% of the company, and only sold 400k shares, could in my view be seem very positively. He clearly could have sold more if he wanted, but didn't. What does that tell you?

At the meeting I actually congratulated the CEO on having built an excellent growth business over the last 13 years, and that him taking £1.2m off the table (from a stake worth about £25m) is a reward that he thoroughly deserves, and isn't negative at all in my eyes.

Anyway, I'm going back to sleep on this one, and we'll see what happens. I'm not looking to sell any shares at all in the next 2 years. If current growth continues, then by that time people will be kicking themselves for having sold at just 400p. This is exactly what happened with BOO. I bought at the bottom, but thought I was being clever, top-slicing on the way up to 50-60p. Now look at it! It's more than doubled from there, just in the last few months!

Instis are happy to pay PERs of 50-100 for the fastest organic growth companies. We may or may agree with that, but it's the reality. So selling this on a fwd PER of about 30 (by my calculations) right now, is completely nuts. Each to their own though, some people have much shorter time frames than me.

Regards, Paul.

[taurusthebear] 29/10/2016 03:32

75k looked to be a rollover. It does seem that someone, besides me, is soaking up all those sells. :0)

[cfro] 28/10/2016 22:18

Clearly the institutions still do not have their fill as yet..

[saucepan] 28/10/2016 19:55

Late reported 75,000 trade sneaked through, I see. It is manifest that private investor sales are going into the hands of institutions.

[glaws2] 28/10/2016 14:59

Rocket fuel - how do you deduce the buy order being worked ?

[mr.elbee] 28/10/2016 14:57

Agreed flyposter...but Thomann can supply Stagg gear.

[rocket fuel] 28/10/2016 11:39

Big buy order being worked in the background here. With only a few million shares held by retail investors this will jump in multiples when the mm's have finished mugging off the sellers and start upping the offer again.

[taurusthebear] 28/10/2016 11:19

Squeezing a last few desperate sellers out. :0)

[flyposter] 28/10/2016 10:39

Stagg gear is pretty cheap and shoddy imo mr.elbee.

[mr.elbee] 28/10/2016 09:21

'ere we go

[taurusthebear] 28/10/2016 01:10

Hasn't done ASOS much harm. It's a business, not a charity. :0)

[11_percent] 27/10/2016 20:27

It's a hell. Of a draw back.

[taurusthebear] 27/10/2016 19:49

And ASOS don't sell Louboutins. So what? :0)

[mr.elbee] 27/10/2016 17:05

I tried to buy a Stagg guitar stand from them.

They dont do them..nuff said.This is a bubble..manipulated to get some people rich.

[che7win] 27/10/2016 13:35

A nervous bunch of holders it seems.

[taurusthebear] 27/10/2016 12:20

250p would be a market cap 50m for a company likely to do 》2.5m PAT. It's very unlikely to happen, unless European tariffs are announced before Article 50 kicks in...

300p could be a retrench on heavy profit-taking prompted by MM markdowns.

If so I, and no doubt many others, will likely top-up heavily. In the meantime, I've been nibbling away in case the uptrend continues, underpinned by (online retail) fundamentals. :0)

[franki8] 27/10/2016 08:37

guess they opted against waiting for it to drop to 250. but wtf do they know, right??..

[johnyee 7] 26/10/2016 09:36

Rns Old mutual just bought over 8%

[saucepan] 26/10/2016 08:37

Bought back a few of those I sold in the +400s. Will start averaging up again if uptrend resumes.

[rocket fuel] 26/10/2016 08:24

off to the races again

[bigbigdave] 26/10/2016 08:18

All buys this morning.

[taurusthebear] 26/10/2016 07:50

Time keeps on slippin', slippin', slippin', into the future. :0)

[interceptor2] 26/10/2016 07:48

Roger Waters......

Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day
You fritter and waste the hours in an offhand way.
Kicking around on a piece of ground in your home town
Waiting for someone or something to show you the way.

Tired of lying in the sunshine staying home to watch the rain.
You are young and life is long and there is time to kill today.
And then one day you find ten years have got behind you.
No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun.

So you run and you run to catch up with the sun but it's sinking
Racing around to come up behind you again.
The sun is the same in a relative way but you're older,
Shorter of breath and one day closer to death.

Every year is getting shorter never seem to find the time.
Plans that either come to naught or half a page of scribbled lines
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way
The time is gone, the song is over,
Thought I'd something more to say.