Gear4music (holdings) Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 24/10/2016 17:00

Management seem very keen to exit at these prices...

[little minx] 24/10/2016 14:24

Plus the new distribution centres will create more awareness and will help reduce distribution costsGrowing very nicely as a company

[thevaluehunter] 24/10/2016 14:18

Agreed it's top up time. I think almost all companies will be sourcing from the far east so prices will need to go up a bit across the board. The benefit that g4m has is scale and no stores with expensive rent, rates and staff costs. There will be an fx benefit from sales in euro.

[little minx] 24/10/2016 14:08

A brilliant time to top up

[franki8] 24/10/2016 13:48

Paul's latest blog gives interesting info

"Although a very interesting point was made by the CEO of Gear4Music (G4M) in a meeting I attended last week. They import a lot of product from China, either directly, or via UK distributors. He said that UK prices would not have to rise as much as some people feared. This is because the Chinese Yuan has depreciated about 7% against the dollar in the last year. This partly mitigates the weakness of sterling against the dollar. Also they can secure lower unit prices by placing a larger order - so they might increase inventories to secure cheaper pricing."

[little minx] 24/10/2016 13:48

Funny who suddenly turns upWhat's the saying "get a life"

[multibagger] 24/10/2016 13:20

Sound decision bamboo2 IMHO :)

[bamboo2] 24/10/2016 13:20

Decided to sell today on the potential share price turn. Cheers, back in later, one way or another. Great start to the week. :-)

edit, chart added, showing apex based share price turn point

[multibagger] 24/10/2016 13:19

Re posts 343 & 344

Fantastic share price rise for those who got in early, but looks frothy to me given the near vertical climb. Smaller volume share trades coupled with new share price high, is something I have learnt to be cautious about.

People wondering if this will be the next ASOS/retail growth story and don't want to miss the boat...but I would be very cautious to enter at these levels, growth potential not withstanding. This is often the kind of share price climb that will often sway management into raising funds....good luck all :)

[rocket fuel] 24/10/2016 12:50

Great management, great products, great company. This must surely be a takeout target soon. I wouldn't be surprised if the likes of Amazon have the slide rule out already.

[kcr69] 24/10/2016 11:41

100% agree thevaluehunter, my estimates are earnings (e.g. undiluted EPS of 13.6p or 17.9p) rather than EBITDA.

[thevaluehunter] 24/10/2016 11:33

looking at the growth rate EBITDA of £5m is more likely for FY17!

[kcr69] 24/10/2016 11:19

Fruitninja84, let say you are being conservative.

rocket fuel, that's quite some upgrade in the space of 2 hours and 32 mins!

£3m+ earnings on revenue of £60m+ this year is looking more and more likely, outside of a major margin spend to be competitive, or major appreciation of sterling in the next 5 months. If you push it to the extreme (e.g. current running rate continues throughout H2), you can get to revenue of £67m and and earnings of £3.6m.

A share price of £5.00 is only a multiple of 33 on £3m earnings or 28 on £3.6m. Both pretty cheap given ongoing growth and strength of sector. A share price of £6.50 is 43x £3.0m earnings or 36x £3.6, for the record I don't think either of these are expensive.

My guess is earnings of £3m or a little over would be a sensible market appraisal for this financial year (Edison's are quite frankly ludicrous). The key point for me is that the next update will be in January, and at that point it is about how strong your belief is. If the update states growth continues at current running rate then forget £6.50 and think £8, £9 or £10 in very quick time. If however growth has slowed, then it all depends by how much. To use a horrible phrase, it comes down to 'do you want to be in or our pre that update'.

I for one will be in and think £5.00 - £5.50 is the absolute base as I have said all along ahead of Christmas 2016. £6.50 is more than feasible in the same time frame if the market starts to value the sector as they do pure play online clothing retail. One thing is for sure, the market are clearly waking up to the potential, whatever the outcome turns out to be.

Best of luck all, whatever your choice and flavour.

[little minx] 24/10/2016 10:55

Well not many spare shares around.

[stampylong trader] 24/10/2016 10:50

I type in "Yamaha keyboard" into google.

It is the TOP search result, beating Amazon. Running up to Christmas, who wouldn't to give a musical instrument to a child to pull them away from their video games?

Remember G4M was established in 2003, we've come full circle. All that time to develop the business brand, networks, suppliers, and team.

[rocket fuel] 24/10/2016 10:44

I fancy this baby will settle at c650p short term.

[panic investor] 24/10/2016 10:39

Mr Elbee - nice balanced post, excellent stuff.

Have a friend with a collection of guitars, never knew they were that expensive, he pays 5k for some. They look lovely mind although his wife doesn't appreciate it !

[mr.elbee] 24/10/2016 10:35

Look at the upmarket classicals..
NOT ONE IN STOCK..all to order.

I bought a John Verity Fretking Corona strat from a local shop for 650

699 from G4m

But why the company is good is that a musician would stock classical guitars...but there's no money in them.

A musician would heavily discount electrics.. but they dont. See? it's run by clever businessmen ,not dreamy musos like me.

[fruitninja84] 24/10/2016 10:30

@mr Elbee They have over 30K products you must want something very unique :p

[fruitninja84] 24/10/2016 10:28

The rise here has been outstanding for sure but they HAVE to deliver and beat Edison's upgrade of 55m now imo. Which makes me slightly uneasy going into January as my profit targets have been met and exceeded. Does anyone else share my concern or am I being chicken little? Hmm

[mr.elbee] 24/10/2016 10:26

I play the guitar too boys, but G4m DONT have what I want..

It's run by clever businessmen,..That is why it is a success..Good luck to you all. Wish I'd got in earlier.

But beware of a bubble.

[rocket fuel] 24/10/2016 08:12

route one to 500p on the chart.

[allstar4eva] 23/10/2016 22:50

Yep. That's why I expect the share price to be at £5+ short term. All imho of course. I could easily be very wrong...

[thevaluehunter] 23/10/2016 22:28

I reckon for the year to Feb 17 sales will be c£63m and ebitda at £5m giving an FY17 EV/EBITDA multiple of c15x which still looks cheap.

[panic investor] 22/10/2016 18:26

Might be adding further on Monday unless the whole world collapses in the mean time