ADVFN Logo

We could not find any results for:
Make sure your spelling is correct or try broadening your search.

Trending Now

Toplists

It looks like you aren't logged in.
Click the button below to log in and view your recent history.

Hot Features

Registration Strip Icon for alerts Register for real-time alerts, custom portfolio, and market movers

GSM Gart.Sml.Co

262.00
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gart.Sml.Co LSE:GSM London Ordinary Share GB0005323091 ORD 25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 262.00 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Gartmore Smaller Cos Share Discussion Threads

Showing 51 to 69 of 250 messages
Chat Pages: 10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
21/7/2007
18:18
15 cents to a dollar?
smilewithme
18/7/2007
09:58
Guys,

Up to you and this ain't investment advice.....

Buy this one on the market if you want - you get free trading stock etc etc and can cash them in ....

Buy in placement and you get a full warrant worth - you can exercise later at 25 cents, so IF the stock goes up to over that price then you get free money.

I exercised my FRA warrants at 11p for stock at nearly a pound - get the picture.

Of course if the price does not go up the warrant is worth less.

Plus if you buy in placement, the company actually gets the money for drilling!

And more importantly, I get a finders fee instead of some nameless broker!

PS Placement stock has 4 month hold period.

smilewithme
18/7/2007
09:40
Hi John

How are things long time no hear, DWY doing really well i don't no how much steam is left in there but going well, will probably do the same?

bobby c
18/7/2007
09:29
I will put some of my dwy profit in here if I can time it right.. Thanks smile...I'll keep looking.
johndavison
17/7/2007
18:00
Looking good

Massive upside potential here

Watch the hordes arrive when they like the chart cause its a ten bagger!

smilewithme
17/7/2007
17:33
Thanks for setting this up smilewithme. Hoping to get involved in the placement within the next few days.
chris1983
13/7/2007
22:56
yikyak

hope you dont mind but have started a new thread

smilewithme
13/7/2007
22:55
GSM has massive potential and the market is going to waken up some time.

They are trying to raise cash to keep them going till the Fall and to drill the flagship Monte Christo project - that has similar geology to what started Gold Corp going!

Market cap should be a lot higher since the actually have a resource 43-101 95,000oz Gold but could be 1.5 million oz gold.

Their is no minimum subscription to the placement which should close in a week or so, so if anyone fancies a risky but high potential punt...

At this stage, best place to buy is in the placement - since full warrant is available so if the price soars you can exchange warrant for stock.

ie pay 25 cents to exercise for stock at a dollar!

This one may sleep for a while but it will rocket sometime.

Similar company Piedmont Mining was stuck around 10 cents but a group got involved and are pushing the stock price up to 20 cents/ 30 cents in matter or months....

smilewithme
13/7/2007
22:49
Private Placement Opportunity in Gold Summit - gold play in the Carolinas and Nevada.

Placement should close next week. This is exploration so no guarantees of success etc etc etc

But the company seem to have a tiny market cap of around $5 million (compared to peers at 4X that)

Please dont take my involvement as any sign of success or investment advice etc etc

Anyway if anyone fancies a risky exploration punt, contact details on the web site.

smilewithme
13/7/2007
22:46
Western Nevada. A 43-101 compliant resource of 365,000 tonnes at 5.7 g/t gold has been estimated"






March 29, 2007

Gold Summit To Raise Money In London For Drilling In Nevada.



When our Canadian Correspondent last took a look at Golden Summit Corporation back in 2006 he reckoned that the shares presented good value. If he was right then, such an opinion must be even more right now as the shares are a little lower if anything and , in the meantime, the company has signed umbrella agreements allowing access to two gold districts in the Carolina Slate Belt which saw the first gold rush in the USA, from 1799 to 1849.There are over 400 recorded gold occurrences and mines in this greenstone belt, but limited modern exploration has been carried out there since1980 when Amselco Minerals discovered the Ridgeway Mine, a 1.4 million ounces gold producer.
These umbrella agreements permit the use of mineral location, soil and rock chip data, and geological information collected or compiled by two exploration syndicates that have considerable expertise and a discovery track record in exploring in the Carolinas. Surprise, surprise these syndicates contain ex-Amselco geologists responsible for the Ridgeway discovery including Dr Tony Taylor who is now chief executive of Gold Summit, so there was plenty of accumulated knowledge from the start. In North Carolina soil sampling back in 1997 produced anomalies in five separate areas at Beaar Creek with values ranging between 30 and 8500 ppb gold. One anomaly has soil samples averaging 1000 ppb over a surface width of 25 metres and this compares with the soil sample at Ridgeway itself which averaged 223 ppb gold. Another location was subject to mining at the turn of the twentieth century and the archives back in 1903 reported high assay values. Insufficient work has yet been done to verify this information, except for a tailings sample that assayed 29 g/t gold, but that surely indicates that the company is on the right track.

Down in South Carolina in South Carolina, the geology appears to be similar and an encouraging soil anomaly was detected on the Rinehart Tract. In the middle of this anomaly a small pit of mid-1800 vintage exposes vein quartz from which a grab sample assayed 12.5 g/t gold. Systematic sampling work on the Tract has come up with some encouraging values, but it was rock samples taken at other sites where quartz veining or alteration was noted which really got Dr Taylor's heart racing. A sample from a small working 100 metres northwest of the big pit assayed 7.0 g/t gold and a float sample at the edge of a new road, 70metres south east of the big pit, assayed 31.6 g/t gold. A further three confirmatory samples from the big pit assayed 21 g/t, 3.4 g/t and 144 g/t gold. Visible gold was present in many quartz float samples in the vicinity. The results are encouraging confirmation of widespread gold mineralization in bedrock over a strike length of 150metres within a broad soil anomaly at least 100metres wide.

Drilling was the next step, but Gold Summit has tended to live a somewhat hand-to-mouth existence through a series of modest financings so, very sensibly, decided to joint venture the work with Astral Mining earning a 51 per cent interest in any property within two designated gold districts in the Carolinas by spending US $300,000 over a two year period. After earning its 51 per cent interest Astral and Gold Summit will fund exploration pro rata unless Astral decides to take its share up to 75 per cent by sole funding further exploration and completing a feasibility study. If it actually develops a mine its interest in the project will rise to 80 per cent.

Tony Taylor certainly gets around as he subscribed for seed capital in Astral, still holds some shares, and reckons the company has strong financing capabilities. Certainly makes for a good mix given the knowledge already possessed on these districts by Gold Summit's geological consultants who will be in the operating team. He can therefore leave Gold Summit's ventures in the Carolinas in good hands while he concentrates on Monte Cristo which is his company's flagship property in the Walker Lane district of western Nevada. A 43-101 compliant resource of 365,000 tonnes at 5.7 g/t gold has been estimated at the McLean Lode and field mapping and compilation is complete along the whole 11 kms belt of alteration and major faulting running through the heart of the property. Eleven targets are now ready for drilling this year and there should be no trouble over permitting.

The Monte Cristo belt has many similarities to the famous Comstock Lode and lies in the same belt of Miocene andesite host rocks. The Mclean Lode, which is open at depth, but displaced by cross faulting, is the equivalent in size to one of the Comstock Lodes. The new drilling is intended to demonstrate that a series of lodes or shoots of high grade gold/silver mineralization is present along the controlling fault. The presence of a lode at the Ohio Camp is inferred from gold intersections in RC holes drilled by Atlas in 1987 where 2metres true width intersection assayed 12.5 g/t gold. It is information such as this which must encouraged VSA Resources, not one of the best known brokers in London, to step up to the plate and offer to raise up to US$7.3 million on a 'best efforts' basis to fund the drilling. This is a bold move as fund managers here have let it be known of late that exploration projects should be well along the road to production. The best of luck!

smilewithme
13/7/2007
22:43
Shot at 2007-07-13

Richmond Club: Gold Summit Corporation (TSX-V: GSM) Gold Summit's President and CEO Dr. Anthony Taylor outlines Gold Summit's Gold Exploration Projects in Nevada
6/18/2007

Toronto, Ontario CANADA, Jun 18, 2007 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX News Network) --
Richmond Club (RC - 0),
Investors and interested parties were brought up to date by Dr. Anthony Taylor, President and CEO of Gold Summit Corporation, during his presentation to the Richmond Club June 13, 2007, including an update on the Monte Cristo Gold Project in Nevada. Gold Summit Corporation is a TSX-V listed junior exploration company that, using its considerable technical experience, searches for high grade, underground, gold/silver targets in the USA. Ultimately, shareholder value is created by discovery of high quality, low cost resources by drilling carefully selected targets. Underground high grade gold/silver targets were largely ignored in the modern exploration era in favor of large, low grade deposits, and are under-explored. Apart from superior economics, underground mines have a smaller environmental footprint and are more socially acceptable. Over the past three years the company has assembled an enviable portfolio of epithermal, bonanza drill targets in Nevada and has a small discovery on its Monte Cristo property to its credit. Recently, it has expanded its geographical reach to the gold rich Carolina Slate Belt where no underground exploration has taken place since the mid 1800's.

smilewithme
13/7/2007
22:30
yikyak,

are you taking part in the private placement at 15 cents with full warrant?

i am - this company is undervalued unloved etc etc

and may have a massive gold resource in nevada

already 43-101 90,000oz

and could have 1.5 million

market cap 5m to 100m plus possible

they need our money for drilling!

smilewithme
10/7/2007
21:10
Thanks YikYak.
a.fewbob
10/7/2007
13:15
GOLD SUMMIT CORP



Gold Summit/Astral JV Intersects 1.98 m of 17.8 g/t Au at Saluda, South Carolina
7/10/2007

RENO, NEVADA, Jul 10, 2007 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX News Network) --
Gold Summit Corporation ("GSM"),(TSX VENTURE: GSM), and JV Partner Astral Mining Corporation ("Astral"), (TSX VENTURE: AST) report further assay results from quartz veins intersected in core drilling on the Rinehart Property, Saluda County, South Carolina.

A total of 525m in 6 holes were completed along a 135m long segment of a northwest-trending shear zone containing several sub-parallel gold-bearing quartz veins dipping southwest at approximately 45 degrees.

The Main Vein, first identified and sampled in a prospect pit (3.4 to 144 g/t gold), was intersected by Hole S1 (14.4 g/t Au over 2.16m and 7.8 g/t Au over 1.95m in duplicate intersections) 55m to the northwest (reported May 24, 2007 News Release) and now in vertical hole S4 which intersected 1.98m (drilled interval) assaying 17.8 g/t Au 75m northwest of the prospect pit (see attached Map).

Where intersected, the Main Vein has an interpreted true width of 1.3m: it strikes northwest and dips approximately 45 degrees southwest. Although the Main Vein does not appear to continue southeast of the pit outcrop, potential exists for extensions down-dip and along strike to the northwest. Geological observations so far confirm the "greenstone" lode gold model with potential for a stand-alone, high grade, underground deposit.

Sub-parallel mineralized veins also exist and additional sampling of altered felsic and mafic schist host rocks is in progress to determine if broader mineralized zones occur between veins. This possibility is suggested by historical trench sampling (1.4 g/t Au over an interval of 56.4m in channel samples from weathered, altered, volcanic rocks --see May 24, 2007 News Release). Positive assays results would open up potential for an open pit, bulk tonnage deposit.

Once all assays have been received, plan will be finalized for the next stage of work on this project.

Technical Details:

A summary of the Rinehart drill hole information and assay results for intervals containing greater than 1.0 g/t Au is provided below. Hole S4 intersected 1.98m (drilled interval) assaying 17.8 g/t Au, approximately 20m further along strike to the northwest from the previously-reported Hole S1 intersection (see above). Visible gold associated with galena occurs in a massive quartz vein between 18.14 and 20.12m from which 83% of the core was recovered. This intersection demonstrates that the main vein has a true width of approximately 1.3m (in the Prospect Pit and Holes 1 and 4) over a strike extent of at least 75 m.

Quartz veins, sub-parallel to the main vein, were also intersected in Holes S2, S3 and S5. The Main Vein was not intersected in Hole S2, drilled across strike close southeast of the prospect pit outcrop, suggesting it is either cut off by a fault or rapidly pinches out below outcrop.

Hole S3 was drilled to the northeast to intersect the Main Vein between the prospect pit and the previously reported high-grade intercept in Hole S1, 40m down-dip. A 3.8m wide zone of quartz veining was intercepted between 46.50 and 50.30m. However, only 0.45 m of core was recovered and contained only background gold values. However, because of extensive core loss the result may not be representative of the gold content of the whole interval. A deeper interval of veining in Hole S3 contained anomalous gold values in the 0.2 -0.3 g/t range.

Holes S5 and S6 drilled were drilled from the same collar location 53m to the northwest of Hole S4 to test the northwest extension of the shear zone. These both intersected quartz veining but did not intersect the Main Vein. Further drilling will be required to determine if the Main Vein pinches out or is offset in this area.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------Hole Easting Northing Azimuth Angle Depth From To Interval Au# (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) g/t--------------------------------------------------------------------------S 1 445812 3767283 125 -45 157.00 22.13 24.23 2.10 11.3 degrees degrees--------------------------------------------------------------------------S 2 445845 3767212 045 -45 129.00 21.10 22.86 0.76 1.20 degrees degrees--------------------------------------------------------------------------S 3 445797 3767222 045 -60 85.00 NSR degrees degrees--------------------------------------------------------------------------S 4 445807 3767285 -90 43.00 18.14 20.12 1.98 17.8 degrees--------------------------------------------------------------------------S 5 445768 3767322 045 -60 55.00 32.92 33.23 0.29 5.2 degrees degrees--------------------------------------------------------------------------S 6 445768 3767322 -90 56.00 NSR degrees--------------------------------------------------------------------------- NSR equals No Significant Results
Terms of the joint venture allow Astral to acquire an initial 51% interest in any defined property within two designated gold districts, one both in North Carolina and South Carolina after total expenditures of US $300,000 over a two year period. Of that, $100,000 is a commitment within one year.

Astral has the further option to acquire a total 70% interest in any designated property by funding further exploration and completing a feasibility study. In addition, Astral has the option to acquire a total 80% interest in any designated property by placing a mine into production. GSM's consulting team in the Carolinas operates the joint venture subject to budget and programme approval by Astral.

The Carolina districts, previously described in a press release dated July 19, 2006 both contain old workings with outcropping, "greenstone" style, quartz veining from which samples containing visible gold, confirmed by assay, were obtained. They are part of a an island arc greenstone belt that extends 1000 km and containing over 400 separate gold occurrences, many of which lie unexplored since the early 1800's.

In other news, GSM has retained the services of The Richmond Club Corp ("Richmond Club") of Toronto to provide investor relations services to the company, subject to TSX Venture Exchange approval. The Richmond Club receives $1,450 a month for 12 months and options to purchase 276,000 GSM shares at $0.155c/share for three years, vesting as to 25% every three months, subject to TSX-V approval.

The Richmond Club is a media company showcasing 3-4 companies that it feels have an excellent chance of out-performing the market over a 1-2 year period. These companies are presented to the Club's 612 members by website and investor luncheon meetings held monthly at the National Club at Bay and King Street. Members are a mixture of brokers, fund managers and high net worth investors.

Ronald D McDaniel, BSc.,MSc., a registered Professional Geologist in the State of North Carolina, is designated as the Qualified Person supervising Gold Summit's technical work in the eastern United States.

All assays quoted in this release were performed in duplicate by standard Fire Assay/AA methods on sawn, half core samples submitted to American Assay Laboratories in Sparks, Nevada

The securities referenced by this news release have not been registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or any state securities laws, and unless so registered may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or applicable exemption from registration requirements. This news release does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities of Gold Summit Corporation in any jurisdiction.

This news release includes certain "forward looking statements" within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Without limitation, statements regarding potential mineralization and resources, exploration results, and future plans and objectives of the Company are forward looking statements that involve various degrees of risk. The following are important factors that could cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward looking statements: changes in the world wide price of mineral commodities, general market conditions, risks inherent in mineral exploration, risks associated with development, construction and mining operations, the uncertainty of future profitability and the uncertainty of access to additional capital.

To view a copy of the "Map : 2007 Phase I Diamond Drill Hole Location Map - Saluda Gold Project", please visit the link below:



Shares Outstanding 42,172,313

The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.

Contacts: Gold Summit Corporation Hillary Vonich (775) 284-7200 Website: www.goldsummitcorp.com

SOURCE: Gold Summit Corporation



Copyright 2007 Market Wire, All rights reserved.

yikyak
07/7/2007
11:09
"Western Nevada. A 43-101 compliant resource of 365,000 tonnes at 5.7 g/t gold has been estimated"

Private Placement Opportunity in Gold Summit - gold play in the Carolinas and Nevada.

Placement should close next week. This is exploration so no guarantees of success etc etc etc

Placement is 15c with full warrant at 25c (Stock trading around 14 c)


But the company seem to have a tiny market cap of around $5 million (compared to peers at 4X that)

Please dont take my involvement as any sign of success or investment advice etc etc

Anyway if anyone fancies a risky exploration punt, here is some information, with contact details on the web site.

Also since I am new to this company, cannot enter into sensible discussion but would welcome opinion from others.

smilewithme








March 29, 2007

Gold Summit To Raise Money In London For Drilling In Nevada.





When our Canadian Correspondent last took a look at Golden Summit Corporation back in 2006 he reckoned that the shares presented good value. If he was right then, such an opinion must be even more right now as the shares are a little lower if anything and , in the meantime, the company has signed umbrella agreements allowing access to two gold districts in the Carolina Slate Belt which saw the first gold rush in the USA, from 1799 to 1849.There are over 400 recorded gold occurrences and mines in this greenstone belt, but limited modern exploration has been carried out there since1980 when Amselco Minerals discovered the Ridgeway Mine, a 1.4 million ounces gold producer.
These umbrella agreements permit the use of mineral location, soil and rock chip data, and geological information collected or compiled by two exploration syndicates that have considerable expertise and a discovery track record in exploring in the Carolinas. Surprise, surprise these syndicates contain ex-Amselco geologists responsible for the Ridgeway discovery including Dr Tony Taylor who is now chief executive of Gold Summit, so there was plenty of accumulated knowledge from the start. In North Carolina soil sampling back in 1997 produced anomalies in five separate areas at Beaar Creek with values ranging between 30 and 8500 ppb gold. One anomaly has soil samples averaging 1000 ppb over a surface width of 25 metres and this compares with the soil sample at Ridgeway itself which averaged 223 ppb gold. Another location was subject to mining at the turn of the twentieth century and the archives back in 1903 reported high assay values. Insufficient work has yet been done to verify this information, except for a tailings sample that assayed 29 g/t gold, but that surely indicates that the company is on the right track.

Down in South Carolina in South Carolina, the geology appears to be similar and an encouraging soil anomaly was detected on the Rinehart Tract. In the middle of this anomaly a small pit of mid-1800 vintage exposes vein quartz from which a grab sample assayed 12.5 g/t gold. Systematic sampling work on the Tract has come up with some encouraging values, but it was rock samples taken at other sites where quartz veining or alteration was noted which really got Dr Taylor's heart racing. A sample from a small working 100 metres northwest of the big pit assayed 7.0 g/t gold and a float sample at the edge of a new road, 70metres south east of the big pit, assayed 31.6 g/t gold. A further three confirmatory samples from the big pit assayed 21 g/t, 3.4 g/t and 144 g/t gold. Visible gold was present in many quartz float samples in the vicinity. The results are encouraging confirmation of widespread gold mineralization in bedrock over a strike length of 150metres within a broad soil anomaly at least 100metres wide.

Drilling was the next step, but Gold Summit has tended to live a somewhat hand-to-mouth existence through a series of modest financings so, very sensibly, decided to joint venture the work with Astral Mining earning a 51 per cent interest in any property within two designated gold districts in the Carolinas by spending US $300,000 over a two year period. After earning its 51 per cent interest Astral and Gold Summit will fund exploration pro rata unless Astral decides to take its share up to 75 per cent by sole funding further exploration and completing a feasibility study. If it actually develops a mine its interest in the project will rise to 80 per cent.

Tony Taylor certainly gets around as he subscribed for seed capital in Astral, still holds some shares, and reckons the company has strong financing capabilities. Certainly makes for a good mix given the knowledge already possessed on these districts by Gold Summit's geological consultants who will be in the operating team. He can therefore leave Gold Summit's ventures in the Carolinas in good hands while he concentrates on Monte Cristo which is his company's flagship property in the Walker Lane district of western Nevada. A 43-101 compliant resource of 365,000 tonnes at 5.7 g/t gold has been estimated at the McLean Lode and field mapping and compilation is complete along the whole 11 kms belt of alteration and major faulting running through the heart of the property. Eleven targets are now ready for drilling this year and there should be no trouble over permitting.

The Monte Cristo belt has many similarities to the famous Comstock Lode and lies in the same belt of Miocene andesite host rocks. The Mclean Lode, which is open at depth, but displaced by cross faulting, is the equivalent in size to one of the Comstock Lodes. The new drilling is intended to demonstrate that a series of lodes or shoots of high grade gold/silver mineralization is present along the controlling fault. The presence of a lode at the Ohio Camp is inferred from gold intersections in RC holes drilled by Atlas in 1987 where 2metres true width intersection assayed 12.5 g/t gold. It is information such as this which must encouraged VSA Resources, not one of the best known brokers in London, to step up to the plate and offer to raise up to US$7.3 million on a 'best efforts' basis to fund the drilling. This is a bold move as fund managers here have let it be known of late that exploration projects should be well along the road to production. The best of luck!


And.....





This has video link below:

Richmond Club: Gold Summit Corporation (TSX-V: GSM) Gold Summit's President and CEO Dr. Anthony Taylor outlines Gold Summit's Gold Exploration Projects in Nevada
6/18/2007

Toronto, Ontario CANADA, Jun 18, 2007 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX News Network) --
Richmond Club (RC - 0),
Investors and interested parties were brought up to date by Dr. Anthony Taylor, President and CEO of Gold Summit Corporation, during his presentation to the Richmond Club June 13, 2007, including an update on the Monte Cristo Gold Project in Nevada. Gold Summit Corporation is a TSX-V listed junior exploration company that, using its considerable technical experience, searches for high grade, underground, gold/silver targets in the USA. Ultimately, shareholder value is created by discovery of high quality, low cost resources by drilling carefully selected targets. Underground high grade gold/silver targets were largely ignored in the modern exploration era in favor of large, low grade deposits, and are under-explored. Apart from superior economics, underground mines have a smaller environmental footprint and are more socially acceptable. Over the past three years the company has assembled an enviable portfolio of epithermal, bonanza drill targets in Nevada and has a small discovery on its Monte Cristo property to its credit. Recently, it has expanded its geographical reach to the gold rich Carolina Slate Belt where no underground exploration has taken place since the mid 1800's.

Gold Summit's portfolio of projects, including diagrams, as presented at the Richmond Club's June 13, 2007 Resource meeting are available by pasting the following link to your browser:

smilewithme
02/5/2007
08:28
in 1787, Alexander
Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the
University of Edinburgh, had this to say about the
fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years
earlier: "A democracy is always temporary in nature; it
simply cannot exist as a permanent form of
government."


"A democracy will continue to exist up until the
time that voters discover they can vote themselves
generous gifts from the public treasury."


"From that moment on, the majority always vote for
the candidates who promise the most benefits from
the public treasury, with the result that every
democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal
policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship."

yikyak
02/4/2007
14:33
March 29, 2007

Gold Summit To Raise Money In London For Drilling In Nevada.





When our Canadian Correspondent last took a look at Golden Summit Corporation back in 2006 he reckoned that the shares presented good value. If he was right then, such an opinion must be even more right now as the shares are a little lower if anything and , in the meantime, the company has signed umbrella agreements allowing access to two gold districts in the Carolina Slate Belt which saw the first gold rush in the USA, from 1799 to 1849.There are over 400 recorded gold occurrences and mines in this greenstone belt, but limited modern exploration has been carried out there since1980 when Amselco Minerals discovered the Ridgeway Mine, a 1.4 million ounces gold producer............

yikyak
08/3/2007
00:30
free stock charts from www.advfn.com
yikyak
02/2/2007
12:26
My view on HUI and Gold (Abstract)
Thomas Z. Tan, CFA, MBA
January 30, 2007

I published an article last August about gold and HUI on 5 websites (gold-eagle.com, goldseek.com, 321gold.com, savehaven.com, theaureport.com) and have received many comments and feedback from viewers. It has been 1/2 year since and all my views have remained the same. Here is the abstract of that article. Personally I have started trading gold and miners since 2003 and really enjoy reading the enlightening insights from Jim Sinclair's (Mr. Gold) website. I want to write this to show my appreciation for all the work and guidance he has given to us all here.

My main points of this article are: 1) We should view HUI as a derivative of gold, and it will give better indication and wave count than gold itself; 2) Gold is at the early phase of Elliott wave III.

Part One - HUI
I view HUI as a very long- term call option of gold. The best movement of HUI is from the bottom of $38 at the end of 2000 to $160 in 2002 (400% return in 1.5 year), while gold itself has gone only from $250 to $325 (30%) with HUI leveraging 10x. However, from 2002 to now, for 4 long years, HUI is up only from $160 to $320 (100%), in par with gold from $325 to $650 (100%).

The average cost on gold for the HUI miners is believed to be around $325/oz. When gold reached the bottom of $250 in 2000, HUI behaved like 100 calls ($0.38/call) with $75 out of money, and not worth much. Then gold slowly rose to $325 in the next 1.5 years and finally put HUI at the money (at its strike price) with $160 per 100 calls due to their time and volatility premium according to the Black Scholes model. When gold price keeps improving, HUI becomes more and more in the money. The ratio of change between HUI vs. gold is approaching one, the so-called delta hedging of a call. That is exactly what has happened last 4 years when HUI has moved from $160 to $330, or 100% return, "magically" matching gold from $325 to $650, also 100%. The option nature explains the leading nature of HUI to gold. It also implies that any technical analysis (TA) on gold alone such as Elliott Wave Projection (EWP), would only make sense if the same analysis on HUI is correct.

HUI has deviated short term from gold several times, with the longest deviation during 2004. Gold was able to creep up to a higher high but HUI couldn't and lagged behind. This is due to the lack of arbitrage mechanism between HUI and gold since there is not a good basket of companies or index which is closely but inversely correlated to gold, thus unable to engage put-call parity trades (c-p = S-X). Why is the deviation then? In 2004, even gold rose slowly and made new highs, no one believed that gold would stay at the level of $400-$450 very long, people's expectation was that gold would eventually go back to $300-$350 level (again near the strike price). HUI as a composition of 15 unhedged miners, correctly reflected the mass public views at that time by discounting the future earnings and reserves, and traded at "discount" to gold. Will this happen today? I don't think so. The public consensus has accepted a higher gold price with a much more positive sentiment now than in 2004.

Will HUI ever trade in "premium" to gold in the future? My view is unlikely and the reasons are: 1) Companies have too many risks such as geopolitical, reserve, management, capacity, operations, capital. 2) Reserves will eventually run out and finding and securing new reserve is always the biggest risk. 3) Even if gold trades at stratospheric levels, due to capacity constraints, gold miners can only excavate gold so much and so fast each year up to the longevity of reserves, reflecting profit or earnings based on an average gold price substantially less than the peak price, even with low grade ore becoming profitable.

When HUI is more in the money, the market will evaluate gold miners less by earnings or P/E ratios, and more by the values of their reserves minus excavation costs. It makes more sense to invest in junior miners with large and good quality reserves.

Part Two - Gold
Long-Term Gold Target
I expect gold peaks at $4000-$5000 at the end of this bull market based on the following ratio analysis:

Gold vs. DJIA. With a secular bear stock market, DJIA should drop to $5000, a 50% reduction, the DJIA/Gold ratio could reach 1:1 from current 18:1, thus gold at $5000.
Gold vs. CPI. If we use the pre-modified CPI formula prior to mid 1990s, economists have calculated the current inflation should be around 7%-8%, with compounding and higher future inflation, gold should reach $3000-$4000 range to be comparable to $887.5 of 1980 $.
Gold ties more to M3 than any other factors. M3 is running out of control and rising exponentially. Economists have come up with $4000-$5000 gold in order to tie back to M3 in 1970s. There will be a repeat in the future when public views the greenback as worthless as in late 1970s.
Gold vs. Oil. At peak, Gold vs. Oil ratio could reach 30, putting gold to $4000 with oil at $133.
Gold now vs. 1970s. Gold was up from $35 to $887.5 (2500%) in 1970s. Using the same ratio from $250 bottom low, gold could reach over $6000.
From above, I believe gold will take us higher than just the CPI-adjusted $2000 (equivalent to $887.5 in 1980 $). Globalization will bring much higher demand for gold than in the 1970s with more severe scarcity of gold supplies along with larger and wealthier population. The western lifestyle would cause natural resource consumption increase exponentially and thus all commodity prices. It brings competition to devalue paper currencies of all countries alike to gain trade advantage. If the greenback, as the dominant and strongest currency in the world, collapses in the future, all paper currencies will collapse together, resulting in gold as the last currency standing and the only universal one everyone can trust. Central banks (CBs) will turn from sellers of gold to buyers, will have to compete to increase their gold reserves.

From cycle standpoint, gold should have bottomed in 1999 or earlier. The early 2001 bottom, according to GATA, is more a manipulation and collusion of CBs than real demand and supply driven (a good example is that the real purpose of Bank of England selling half of their gold reserves in 1999 is still unknown). But this kind of manipulation (if true), the discontinued M3 and new CPI "adjustments," the lack of audit on CB's real gold positions, could backfire in the future. Just as $250 was an anomaly of gold at the bottom, public dissatisfaction, anxiety and insecurity will cause an irrational behavior at the top, bringing gold to stratosphere. Also with gold's bull market, the large bullion banks, acting as front for CBs, would not be able to short gold and collect coupons on treasury to generate profit trades anymore. Thus the CBs have less ammunition to depress gold and eventually are defenseless to protect their fiat currencies.

EWP of gold
I feel using EWP long term on gold makes more sense than short term, especially in conjunction with HUI. The key here is to define where major wave II is. Many think we are currently at wave II due to the sharp drop in gold from $730-$550. I tend to disagree. Just look at HUI instead of gold, the major wave I was obvious from the end of 2000 to the end of 2003, lasting 3 years, while wave II was during the end of 2003 to mid 2005, lasting 1.5 years, and all other drops were not long enough to qualify as wave II. During the same 1.5 years, gold did creep up slowly, forming a diamond shape wave II, unusual but possible and bullish for wave III. There is also debate whether gold bottomed at 1999 or 2001, from HUI perspective, gold reached bottom at 2001. As I indicated, EWP of HUI is more logical and accurate than gold EWP, due to both its derivative nature of gold and its ability to deviate to better reflect the real psychological level of public expectation and perspective on gold. EWP basically reflects mass public emotions.

If true, we are currently at wave III, with length reasonably estimated for 3 years. Today wave III is only 1.5 year, the run from $420 to $730 could be sub-wave 1 followed by $730-$550 sub-wave 2 ending Q4 2006. We are in sub-wave 3 of wave III which should be the strongest and last until Q4 2007. The whole wave III should last until around end of 2008, bringing us to $1800-$2000, a 400% return from wave II bottom. After wave III, I expect a serious correction from wave IV, lasting for two years, similar to 1974-1976, bringing us down to about $1200 (50% correction) before a run away upleg to my final $4000-$5000 target, another 400% gain. Anything is possible in the market, so don't take all the targets as granted. The upcoming wave behavior should give us better clues on both time and price targets.

If true, by using the same ratio of peak of $887.5 at 1980 to $250 at 2001, gold should bottom at $1100-$1400 as the absolute bottom at the next major bear market that can last for another 20 years. Even so, gold will still remain at four digits for this and next generation, thus never be at three digits again.
When will be the best time to buy gold? Answer: If not now, when?

Thomas Z. Tan, CFA, MBA
thomast2@optonline.net

Disclaimer: The contents of this article represent the opinion and analysis of Thomas Tan, who cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this opinion and analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their brokers and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.

yikyak
Chat Pages: 10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1

Your Recent History

Delayed Upgrade Clock