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FML Frontier Min

0.025
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Frontier Min LSE:FML London Ordinary Share KYG368211093 ORD USD0.01(DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 0.025 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Frontier Min Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3051 to 3073 of 3275 messages
Chat Pages: 131  130  129  128  127  126  125  124  123  122  121  120  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
07/8/2014
10:37
shorters targeting this stock could be banged up for 2 years when MPs make manipulation illegal today...we know who they are dont we hereford?
temmujin
07/8/2014
10:35
You really do live in a bubble of your own jascat where long-established rules don't seem to apply to you. Your FML stake is now worth £125,000 less than you paid for it, which you're adamant is not a loss because it's on paper, which even the average Ostrich would have difficulty coming to terms with. If that's not enough, you continue adding to your losing position with every decline in the share price in the classic mode of catching a falling knife, but remain assured in your mind that you have a protective angel that will save you from any ultimate harm. In fact, according to your last post, you're convinced of a guaranteed fat profit based on your so-called enterprise (takeover) value?
It is naïve to believe that such a price will ever be realisable in practice.

Whatever happens to FML will be based on what most benefits FML management, who can vote through whatever terms they wish due to their unassailable share holding. You regularly criticise FML management for the lack of concern for private investors, but somehow believe that when push eventually comes to shove over a major decision that the leopard will change its spots and offer full support to the rank and file?

Ever since the time you tried to convince everyone that FML was being heavily shorted and you provided figures you said proved it (which turned out were for a different company!), it was obvious your imagination and aspirations far exceed your knowledge on equity investing.

The stock market is a game of percentages where you usually lose the further you deviate from the normal odds and rely upon lady luck. If the dream you chase should eventually materialise, it will be despite the manner you have approached it and with little credit of intelligence. You have a large loss-gap to fill before your head is above water because of diving into the deep end too soon.

I've always been a FML neutral trading according to market variables and have thusly accumulated healthy profits along the way, so I've not been reliant upon FML being a success to benefit. By keeping my main powder store dry awaiting real market-changing news, the risk taken on by LTBH investors is avoided. Most punters seem to have the mistaken obsession that they must get in early and hang on to win big, but they've taken on all the risk and are out of pocket as a result.

Patience in when to act has been shown to be more important than having patience after committing your funds. Still, there's always the fan club for the like-minded!

p.s. With nearly 2 bln shs issued and 25% free float, debt has been FML's only option.

vizz
07/8/2014
09:52
mrwindmill
I took a hit on this about 1 year ago so i know the pain. I'm looking at this with fresh eyes

if everyone is sick of it then there could be a short term opportunity


jascat, many thanks for your responses.

i reflected on management actions

pro: they could have issued equity or kept the buyer in back pocket.
con: in the past they have not been good- no pilot plant like CAML

their cons are what give a short term opportunity. i never put any value on the sold asset and the 30m goes along way to cleaning up the accumulated losses

but we now sit at 0.7 vs 5p

I think there is an opportunity here for a small stake, which can be rallied strongly into on news.

If they do manage to get 30m in cash for an underveloped resource. If this breaks even, surely they can flog the company for multiples.

ga11amar
07/8/2014
08:41
Great debate over pictures I bought at 5p got a long way and time to break even if ever.
mrwindmill
07/8/2014
04:29
ga11amar. FML hold around 72% of the total shares in issue & would need 75% to go private. It is always a risk (especially for AIM stocks) that they may be bought out by management.
The enterprise (takeover) value of FML is around $70 million, or over 3p per share. There is no reason to believe a buyout is likely, but even if it was, 3p would still give me a good profit.
It has always been FML's plan to see the share price rise & look for a buyout, so making a large profit. I am sure that is still their intention once the share price rises.
It is interesting that at no point in the past five years, has FML issued additional shares to raise cash, even when the share price was much higher. They have always went the additional debt route. This is good, as it shows they do not want to dilute the share price with additional shares & will add any increase in value of the company to the existing share pool.
The May/July photos show pad 5.
I have researched FML from many sources & built an opinion based on that.
FML have done themselves no favours by virtually ignoring the private investors. This, in part, has led to the fall in the share price The other reason is the constant selling by what appears to be one source.
Those with patience should see a bounce with the interims in September.
Be aware, that many who run down FML are previous investors who bailed out & lost money when the share price fell from around 10p. They are naturally bitter & I do not really blame them for being so. I am showing a paper loss, but will continue to hold.
Although always a risk, I believe FML is excellent value at present levels, but then again, I said that when the share price was 2.5p.
You must examine the situation, weigh up the pros & cons & act on your findings.
Halyk finance is one of the few that give an indication of a forward looking share price
They also give their views on the news & how it is likely to affect FML.
They are a Kazakhstan based finance company.
www.halykfinance.kz/en/site/index/research/er:77214

jascat
06/8/2014
19:45
i want to keep this objective and thank you for your responses.

jascat
i can see good progress between pic 174 in 183. Do you believe this to be pad 4 or 5

it seems like you follow this in detail, can you let me know what pictures you think relate to which pads so i can tie this back to announcements

It seems clear to me some progress is being made

The issue of majority holder is a worry and i am thankful for this being pointed out.

ga11amar
06/8/2014
19:30
thanks for both of your feedback, i will build this into my probability..it is a punt

Do you agree with his statement on pad 3/4

do you currently hold this?

ga11amar
06/8/2014
19:15
FML's stated RNS hope was to have pads 5 & 6 fully stacked by this coming winter so that leaching becomes possible when the thaw commences, with some chance of limited production beforehand if weather permits.

However, every positive aspect one cares to name about FML's prospects will mean nothing for rank and file shareholders if its decided to take the company private, which would be easy for management in view of holding 75% of the voting rights.

Why pay more than the current share price or even that, if FML can be gobbled up by corporate shenanigans? This is why institutional money won't go near FML.

ga11amar - If you knew jascat's history, you would not be asking for his advice.

vizz
06/8/2014
19:05
This is very helpful to a non expert. can i ask what your background is
and any good sources to educate myself? I hope this is not offensive.

i like the look play and would like to learn more.

If other people can obtain a clear view of the stock hopefully it benefits all

ga11amar
06/8/2014
18:43
At year end, leach pad three was completed. Parts of it were stacked at various levels up to six metres & part of it was stacked with the new agglomerate mixture.
Part of pad four was also in production over the winter, with forced air circuit installed to aid leaching.
Pad four was completed around April/May this year & all of it is stacked to six metres. According to the photos on the FML site, pad five looked to be almost completely stacked to six metres early July. Pad six will be stacking now & should be completed by October.
Constructing a pad to six metres takes around three months.
Leaching can start prior to the pads completion. From beginning of leaching to getting a solution strong enough to produce copper takes about forty five days.
FML planned to have all six pads producing solution by the start of winter this year & it looks like they will succeed.
This means they should be able to produce decent amounts of copper throughout the winter.
There is talk of a pad seven, but that will be for next year.

jascat
06/8/2014
18:08
do you have more knowledge on the leach pads you can share?

I was under the impression at year end. pad 3 was done and pad 4 being stacked.
5 and 6 had basic work complete.

Do you know how long it takes from stacking to leaching? and also construction times for pad 5/6

any sharing is appreciated.

I am not a ramper/deramping. im looking at this as a punt and want to get my odds right.

ga11amar
06/8/2014
17:58
I think it's a no brainer that FML will produce much more copper this year than last. They will have three new leach pads, stacked nearly three times higher in production.
Everyone is hungry for news & at the first sign of it, the price could rise faster than a rat up a drainpipe.
I now hold in excess of 9 million shares at average 2.1p.

jascat
06/8/2014
17:09
if people dont like my 3p, then please change it to something more agreeable to your view. 2p?. i hate to argue about the exact number as its speculation.

with 2p you are still better than a coin flip

There is huge potential here in the resource, good chance someone will come in and buy it on cheap

i wrote something similar about SHFT.L and it popped +50% today for a while on some news.

I think we need to set aside long term investing attitudes on this one. This is more like a call option than a stock IMHO

ga11amar
06/8/2014
17:05
I see both sides because i see it as a strong buy for new money:

I think we would all agree if the sale goes through and they can produce 4000 this will rally. they made 1700 with fewer pads, lower height last year. also the consultant only really helped from mid year. Their lenders also stood by (in case they wobble a bit).

if we agree 3p could be reasonable in the case i outline above, what is fair value


loss 0.7 = gain (3/0.7) -1
-100%= + 328%

i just see people disagreeing about the odds. if you think success is more than 30% likely an even bet.

the company may also not go bankrupt and you may get a buyout for something silly like 2p. its a horrible price for existing holders but its still 180% gain for new money

This stock will not move up on longtime holders as everyone is annoyed, they are not gonna pump more in. New money taking the punt will drive it, hence my analysis

the key thing for me is the sale proceeds, if they get this, given 1700 was produced last year, i do think 4000 is reasonable. I think there is more than 30% chance of takeover or success so i think its good

ga11amar
06/8/2014
15:45
No. I'm the cut my nose off to spite my face type.
hereford29
06/8/2014
15:26
If you thought the company was going downhill, why are still holding?
Surely you should have sold when you saw the last balance sheet.
Do you not act on your findings?

jascat
06/8/2014
13:59
why don't you look at the balance sheet two years ago and compare it to the balance sheet now? A picture is worth nothing. An RNS is a regulated statement. Why should I sell my shares? I'm a shareholder. The owners should sell their shares to me so I can run the business properly, rather than leave them to run it into the ground.
hereford29
06/8/2014
13:39
hereford. Why don't you look at the July photos & compare them with the photos from May. As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words.
It is not rocket science.
Sell your FML shares & put your money in the post office savings bank.

jascat
06/8/2014
13:27
If there are pictures showing progression in July, why not report this progression? Anyone can put up pictures on a website, and the pictures are not RNS statements, so carry no legal implications as far as I understand.
hereford29
06/8/2014
12:20
hereford. What more up to date financial info do you expect.
FML have stated that the asset sale has been approved by the Kaz government. They are getting $30 million.
This is more than enough to cover all 2014 debt & capital repayments.

FML did not release any production info for the first six months of 2013 prior to the interims in September,nor have they done so for 2014, so no big surprise.

Time indeed will tell.

I added 234k this morning

jascat
06/8/2014
12:02
Forced seller? unlikely. Do they know something we don't? Highly likely. Are we getting transparent and up to date financial information relevant to the solvency of the company? I don't believe so. Are there any parallels to Sunkar? Time will tell.
hereford29
04/8/2014
14:06
There does seem to be a forced seller, 250k chunks are regular and have been for weeks now. They switched to 300k last week but now appear to be back with the 250k. Why are they selling, who knows? Do they know something that we don't? Unlikely. As both of you have pointed out, FML aren't exactly forthcoming with their info.

Perhaps in a years time this period will be seen as a great opportunity to get cheap stock. FML should be producing more copper now than they've ever have in their history. All this talk of loans may be a moot point if they're generating enough revenue. We'll have to wait and see for the operational update next month. But I don't see any parallels to Sunkar and I'm not sure why it's keeps being brought up. FML is nothing like Sunkar.

induna123
04/8/2014
13:30
Then you should sell.
jascat
Chat Pages: 131  130  129  128  127  126  125  124  123  122  121  120  Older

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