Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Frontier Dev LSE:FDEV London Ordinary Share GB00BBT32N39 ORD 0.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +1.00p +0.30% 332.00p 325.00p 332.00p 332.00p 325.00p 328.50p 15,899 16:35:01
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Software & Computer Services 21.4 1.3 4.2 79.0 113.25

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Date Time Title Posts
19/4/201718:16Frontier Developments - Elite gaming.....404.00

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Frontier Dev Daily Update: Frontier Dev is listed in the Software & Computer Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FDEV. The last closing price for Frontier Dev was 331p.
Frontier Dev has a 4 week average price of 285p and a 12 week average price of 270p.
The 1 year high share price is 359p while the 1 year low share price is currently 169.50p.
There are currently 34,112,529 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 51,852 shares. The market capitalisation of Frontier Dev is £113,253,596.28.
makw61: I'm sure there would be a number of willing buyers at the current valuation, so the fact it hasn't been sold means that Braben doesn't want to. He seems to very much enjoy what he does in any case. The fact he has a controlling stake removes any bid premium from the share price and probably holds it back a little in the short term. however, i'm very happy to hold for the long term and see greater value creation that way. Presumably Braben has a significant proportion of his net worth tied up in this company which adds to my confidence that it will be tightly run, without excessive equity dilution or overpriced acquisitions. GLA
p1nkfish: Problems are to be overcome especially if there is a big prize by doing so. I see a couple of things outside of "just" gaming, 1) A way into VR content and augmented reality and "other" areas that are in research elsewhere currently (involving headsets but not just for VR/Aug use in the current sense) 2) A way into the spiders web of future entertainment that is hard to imagine with a 10 yrs view More to it than just that given FDEVs own capabilities/tools. I also like the idea, if it plays out, that someone like Braben has control with a high % of ownership and a 10 year ambition outside of quick spikes in share price. As usual, nothing guaranteed and a lot of macro economic garbage is coming down the tracks but this has elements of a buy and forget that I like. Not without risks but a leader with a vision, a good track record & skin in the game is an asset that can help compensate for some of them.
makw61: GI, I've subscribed to the Investors Chronicle print edition for a lot of years. It caters to a range of investors from novice to more experienced and its coverage reflects that i.e. broad rather than detailed and covers funds as well as individual shares. The companies section is mainly driven around interim and full year results so there will be an update on FDEV on Friday 10th Feb, or possibly the following Friday depending on their print deadlines. Coverage is generally one-third of a page per company so it's not very in-depth tbh. having said that, it still enjoys a decent readership so a buy recommendation does tend to move the share price. They will sometimes update tips between results but this is only a single paragraph typically. Beyond the Chronicle, investors in smaller caps are not well served in the UK in either print or online media. I'm not a big fan of share prophets for various reasons. As an aside, I think it's a good move by management to discount PC by 15% to keep up interest. It always amazes me how price sensitive demand is; £4.50 isn't a massive saving but it seems to have pushed it right back near the top of the Steam charts. GLA
hastings: Cheers for that mathewawood and glad my scribbling's have been of some use. As you say, I have covered FDEV for a few years now in my column and also visited a few times too. My first penned piece was back in late 2013 which came after the shares for some inexplicable reason slumped from £1.15p to 93p in one day. I had actually been monitoring the stock for a while and on the day in question put a call into the company to get a feel for the business and ask the inevitable question as to whether there was an imminent update in offing. As it transpired, all was well with the business, which saw one of the Directors make the most of the share price slump by picking up circa 80k shares on the day. My own maiden purchase was somewhat more modest,although having been struck at 95p has since served me well and although having taken some off the table at the £3.00 level,I continue to hold and am looking for more considerable longer term upside. For anyone else that may fancy a look at my more recent coverage which will be updated next month (Interim's) links below. Http:// Http://
culford: Good idea GI. VR still a small % of market but should grow rapidly as prices fall. Looking at Steam global top sellers today after the end of the sale, PC lies 6th. It is priced at £29.99 and all other games above it are priced at 1/2 that price or less with the exception of GTA5. Steamspy shows it has sold c1/2m copies now and it clearly has "legs" and will keep selling as reviews are >90% positive and suggest it is the new benchmark in roller coaster games. Share price is understandably reacting to the vertigeous rise in December but would expect the ascent to begin again in due course. As outlined above, PC game alone is probably worth 450p per share and there is also ED and a lot of further games to come from this emerging Cambridge success story in the games publishing industry.
culford: PC slipped down to bottom half of top 10 today but global owners went up by 20,000 to 450k on Steamspy. It is hard to understand versus its position in steam global top sellers list but underlying trend good and thats another £1/2m of gross revenue booked in a day! I would think the company needs to update stock market in early January as to the level of success of its second game which is clearly impacting on the share price!! Less turnover on the stock market today than on Steam with 100k shares or c£300k in value traded. That is improving liquidity for FDEV though and this should get better now it is above the £100m market cap. level. The share price closed above its historical high which Bamboo has said makes it v difficult to forecast now; he suggested c370p next i seem to remember. Thanks to GI we now know the comparative multiples of other listed emerging game publishing companies (8-10x revenues). If its heading that way we are very early in this share price action!
culford: GI Your comparative valuations are very interesting and, as you say, make FDEV look very cheap. If these early stage quoted games companies are being valued at 8-10x revenues, that would be £300m-400m for FDEV (revenue run rate c£40m), or 900p to 1200p per share. On the face of it that looks very high. However it reflects the trends that Mckw61 kindly pointed out in post 183 above. The easing of distribution has increased the value of content makers like these games publishers. They are creating franchises with long term value and receiving much of value that previously went to Nintendo, Atari, Microsoft (Xbox) or Sony Platstation. In a post above I crudely valued the PC franchise at £150m, or 450p per FDEV share on its own. To set out my crude forecasts in a little more detail, taking into account a franchise profile as set out in post above for Planet Coaster: 2 million games sold at gross value £30 each = £60m Years 1 & 2 3 million games sold at gross value £20 each = £60m Years 2 & 3 5 million games sold at gross value £10 each = £50m Years 4 & 5 2 million DLC1 sold at gross value £10 each = £20m Years 2 & 3 4 million DLC2 sold at gross value £10 each = £40m Years 3 & 4 6 million DLC3 sold at gross value £10 each = £60m Years 4 & 5 Total = £290m over 5 years The PC franchise would thus generate £290m gross over 5 years. Realistically there will be sales through this period so lets discount all sales by 15% - giving gross sales of £246.5m. FDEV's average sales tax is 12%, so the net revenue it might receive over 5 years would be £220m under above scenario. If one then deducts 30% distribution costs, that would leave £155m for PC's franchise vale to FDEV or 450p per share. If one applies similar maths to ED one can see how a sales multiple of 8x and a value of 900p could be reached. As FDEV has pointed out, analysing the company on 6 monthly or even annual cut off points can be misleading due to timing of launches etc. Thus H1 2016/7 should look good with 2 weeks of launch of PC included. Likewise H2 will look good with a full 6 months of two games; ED and PC. It could be spectacular if PS4 launch is included - but that may fall into H1 2017/8. Overall, market needs to look through this and decide whether the company has created a long term franchise or not. The successful launch of PC (>400k units sold in first 5 weeks) and c2m unit sales of ED sold suggest FDEV has two franchises and share price is beginning to wake up to this. Incidentally GI, the £220m forecast net Planet Coaster sales for FDEV over 5 years averages out at £44m per annum which is significantly higher than your forecasts. Perhaps I have had too much brandy?
culford: PC is having a Steam good winter sale, consistently in the top 5 and often 2nd as now. This is the biggest period of volume sales in the year and to be in this position whilst only discounted by 15% (most games are 33%-67% discounted) is very encouraging. PC is starting its 6th week of full release and it has probably sold 1/2 million games already. Frontier's previous game in this genre, RCT3, sold >10m units. The market is now much bigger and with such a positive reception (reviews >90% positive), it would be surprising if PC did not follow suit. There will also be paid for DLCs to follow as this game is developed over the next 5 or so years. If one took this franchise on its own and assumed, with DLCs, that it generates £30 each over 10m purchasers (core game's price will probably reduce to c£15 in due course), then that is £300m gross, or c£150m net after VAT and distribution costs. That is 50% more than the market value of FDEV, which also has Elite Dangerous (perhaps of similar value over a longer period), £10m in cash, an experienced management team and skilled workforce, the unique Cobra software and many more games to come!! In other words, PC on its own probably warrants a FDEV share price of 450p and the other assets the same again. Not sure what Bamboo thinks of chart now, but this has plenty more upside in 2017 if underlying value is now c900p.
makw61: Isa, I agree with the other posters, not too late on this one if you have some money you are prepared to commit for a few years. I try to ignore the day to day share price movements (always difficult tbh) and focus on what I think the company is worth. The market will nearly always recognise that in time (I've been in here since the IPO, with most of my purchases over the summer once I'd seen some early PC, so I've had to be reasonably patient). I believe that Culford's £15m is a reasonable estimate of the run-rate profitability of this company (with potential significant upside from further franchises). If I subtract 20% UK corporation tax that gives earnings of £12m. The average PE of the UK stock market over the past 50+ years is 15. That implies a market value of £180m. With 34.1m shares in issue that equates to a share price of £5.28. You might add in a little more for net cash. Now you may feel £15m is too high, or that the PE multiple is wrong, but my view is that these need to be quite a bit wrong to make this bad value at current levels. Everyone will have (and should have) their own opinion of course. The bigger picture is that the economics of games developers have improved significantly in recent years. Distribution is moving almost entirely to electronic rather than physical and that includes Xbox/PS4, marketing is increasingly viral/community based, server and bandwidth costs continue to reduce dramatically. In addition, successful franchises are good at monetising expansions/DLC e.g. GTA V, Sims etc. All this is good for profitability and David B seems to run a tight ship in terms of costs, which makes sense as he is the largest shareholder. If you get chance, read e.g. Take Two Interactive's 10-k to get a feel for some of the trends. All the best and GLA
makw61: I'm not expecting the H1 result to be dramatically different to 2015 (which included the Xbox launch of ED). PC sales will be c.300k units and ED something similar I would guess, compared to ED sales of c.600k in H1 2015. The uplift will be seen mainly in H2 when we see a full six months sales of PC and I expect management will not feel comfortable updating full year guidance until they've seen the level of sales in the key December trading period. I hope I'm wrong as I think it's going to take a trading statement to get the share price moving. There appears to be plenty of stock available - Chris Sawyer has been a seller in the past so maybe he is trimming his holding. We will only know if he goes below the 3% disclosure level. Been some decent buys today so hopefully the share price will soon start to reflect the progress the company has made. GLA
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