Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[hastings] 16/1/2017 15:09

My take too TheGaminginvestor.I visited this morning and should have got the bike out, very hard to find a parking spot!Anyway, I've penned a piece that may or may not be of interest which I'll pop up later.

[thegaminginvestor] 16/1/2017 14:59

The company has previously indicated that they want to start earning money on a 3rd franchise already in 2018 so I am pretty sure the development costs are related to that third franchise.I am guessing we will see a trailer in a not to distant future as it will be difficult for them to report high development costs in the H1 report for an unnamed project. If it is a cross platform game from the start shares should really take off.It would be pretty cool if they did an ARG reveal around the third franchise in ED or PC or both combined.

[culford] 16/1/2017 11:47

Agreed makw61. PC good as expected and Ed slightly disappointing. Overall 66% increase in revenues when 2nd game only out for 2 weeks of half is pretty good!! Cash down slightly but that is explained by 30 days terms from Steam, they get paid 30 days later meaning that debtors will be very high at end of half with 14 days or c300,000 sales of PC not yet banked.
Revenues/results for full year will be driven by PS4 launch but can assume revenues will be up nearer 100% to near £40m before this, reflecting 6 1/2 months of new game. Underlying cash/profits should be c£15m as discussed before.

Results are out in early February and it will be interesting to hear what the increased development is - could be new game underway? The comment of lots of PC releases planned for 2017 and beyond bodes very well.

[makw61] 16/1/2017 10:05

Happy with £18.1m revenue to end November. My model suggests that taking into account trading since then they may be near £26m for the financial year to date, with four and a half months to go until year end.

Would have liked some detail on the third franchise and on the timing of the PS4 launch for ED though.

Was a bit intrigued by the comment they have increased development and "other business activities". Not really sure what the last bit means?

Not surprised they were fairly conservative about the full year outlook as they have essentially no forward visibility on sales. Some companies have order books equating to months or sometimes years of sales but obviously not the case here. Hopefully they will be in a position to increase expectations as we get closer to end May.

GLA

[p1nkfish] 16/1/2017 09:56

Some of the sellers at open doors today could well regret it.
Don't let go of a share with these catalysts and drivers in play over the next 2 years.

[makw61] 15/1/2017 12:09

Look forward to that, Hastings. I'm assuming the trading update will be tomorrow then! Management will then be in a better position to talk to you, plus I think it was around this date last year. Be good to see some concrete numbers. Steamspy seems all over the place still.

GLA

[hastings] 15/1/2017 09:51

Me neither p1nkfish- Off for a visit and meet up with management tomorrow morning.
Will pen something for later in the day on the back of that.

[p1nkfish] 14/1/2017 17:40

I wouldn't be clever enough to trade.

[bamboo2] 14/1/2017 13:08

My calculated guess about the update turned out to be wrong, and the potential turns in the price never showed up. There is, however, a noticeable change in the angle of the uptrend on one of the turn marks.

This highlights the one of the problems of trying to use these apexes to time trades, another problem is that is impossible to know the depth of the turn, ie is it worth trying to trade them at all?

The price is currently constrained by historical resistance.

[hastings] 13/1/2017 20:44

Mamas & Papas!

[nmulm] 11/1/2017 18:13

Suing Atari for $2.2 mil

[marbenswe] 11/1/2017 09:26

Also, for top grossing positions for all of G5 Entertainment's games, go to:

hxxp://www.g5info.se/spelstatistik_ipad.php

Updated daily

[marbenswe] 11/1/2017 09:20

Have you read about Swedish game developer and publisher G5 Entertainment? Prestigo Research issued this report a while back. In January 2017, the company released its sales figures för Q4-16. 184 MSEK,+82% and the stock is booming. Listed on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Small Cap

G5EN:SS

hxxp://www.g5e.com/corporate
hxxp://www.g5e.com/documents/PRESTIGO_Flash_Note_G5E.pdf
hxxp://www.g5e.com/corporate/share

[culford] 10/1/2017 14:30

Mark4231
Yes - i take gross sales figure (price of game x numbers sold) and divide by 1.12 to get to net sales (i.e. after the 12% average VAT FDEV pays). I then multiply by 70% (or deduct 30% for the Steam/Xbox distribution charge) giving the gross profit or contribution.

FDEVs cash costs, mostly salaries, are running at c£14m, meaning that at sales of c£20m (past two years) it has broadly broken even in cash terms. This was on one cylinder, Elite Dangerous. From end November it has been on two cylinders and most of the gross contribution of Planet Coaster should fall to the bottom line. It looks as if in first full year it might sell between 1m and 2m games at an average discount of say 15%. At the bottom end of that range that would be 1m games x £30 x 85% = £25.5m gross sales, £22.8m net sales after VAT and a gross contribution of £15.9m. If cash flow has gone from break even to >£15m then the market cap should rise to at least £150m, or 450p. At top end of range then the cash flow will be double and valuation significantly higher too :)

[bamboo2] 10/1/2017 13:28

abrar, The apex of trendlines that form wedges or triangles potentially indicate a turn in the price. These are marked by a vertical red line on my charts.

Will update chart later. There are a few of these imminently, that could indicate some potential volatility.

culford, yes target still 366

edit, abrar, basically it's a calculated guess.

[mark4231] 10/1/2017 13:04

Culford, do your figures take into account that Steam take a big cut in sales through their store? Something in the region of 30% I read elsewhere.

[culford] 10/1/2017 12:59

Bamboo - will still look v cheap at 366p - is that still showing up as your target?
Lets hope update comes Thursday.

[abrargundroo] 10/1/2017 12:49

Bamboo2 what signals are telling you the update is coming on Thursday?

[bamboo2] 10/1/2017 12:48

Added. Somewhat difficult to buy, placed order eventually.

[bamboo2] 10/1/2017 07:24

Chart suggesting to me that update will be this Thursday.

[culford] 10/1/2017 00:31

Planet Coaster is in third tier (Silver or top 40 games) of Steam's best selling games (gross revenues) for 2016, not bad for a 17th November launch. ED is not in top 100 games for 2016, although this may be a result of it being split into 3 offerings; ED, ED Horizons and Commander the combined offering.

SteamSpy was down for 24 hours and has just resurfaced with significantly higher owners for many games including PC. We will need to wait to see whether the data gets corrected but at present owners/sales have leapt to 665k last night, up from just over 500k previously. This would imply gross sales of c£18.3m to date, net sales (ex vat) of c£16.3m and gross profit/contribution of c£11.4m.

[hastings] 09/1/2017 18:59

Is there anybody out there!http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/business/technology/scary-video-confirms-existence-aliens-12427284

[culford] 09/1/2017 11:08

The alien Thargoids have been seen in ED which has caused a flurry of interest and driven sales of the game back up the Steam best seller charts. Pretty good timing in advance of PS4 launch in next few months. PC sales beginning to fall off but still in top 10. Overall a period of consolidation now and I am very interested in see trading update and what new game might be!