Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Fresnillo plc LSE:FRES London Ordinary Share GB00B2QPKJ12 ORD USD0.50
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.00p -0.12% 1,646.00p 1,648.00p 1,650.00p 1,659.00p 1,634.00p 1,653.00p 1,156,341 16:35:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 980.3 144.1 6.5 210.1 12,129.27

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Date Time Title Posts
21/10/201608:07FRESNILLO precious metals3,878
29/9/201607:06Analysts' Perspective on Fresnillo PLC (FRES)-
17/5/201616:40Lower Silver & Gold prices are hurting Fresnillo profits1
01/7/201407:59Darren Sindendiscusses Fresnillo on Tip TV1

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Fresnillo plc Daily Update: Fresnillo plc is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FRES. The last closing price for Fresnillo plc was 1,648p.
Fresnillo plc has a 4 week average price of 1,702.70p and a 12 week average price of 1,765.15p.
The 1 year high share price is 2,056p while the 1 year low share price is currently 612.50p.
There are currently 736,893,589 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,035,087 shares. The market capitalisation of Fresnillo plc is £12,129,268,474.94.
topicel: Maybe with all that dosh slopping around they will start, perhaps with a special divvy as Fresnillo so often have done in the recent past when the commodity price cycle has swung up, as it has this year? Speaking of which, the battle to force the Yen up further against the US dollar continues with the most bullish FX strategists calling for $95 USD/JPY which would return silver to well above $20 and reinvigorate the FRES share price. The sell on the news of increased production appears to be over and it is back to watching all the other indices for a few weeks IMHO for guidance as to the next direction. Oil could impact again of it rallies back towards $50 a barrel, but the link seems more tenuous these days... Next week we will see the BoJ make some important decision and potential linking to gold in other areas, notably Shanghai, which could be interesting. Bon weekend a tous. Topicel
topicel: There are corrections, and there are corrections. There is profit-taking and then there is profit-taking. Certainly these have been applied here, would you not say?! Each time, the share price falls it fights back. Clearly some are not too worried and have buying opportunity stakes and buys in as it drifts lower as we move towards the next set of company results next week. It may be too soon to dip in again unless you're averaging down, but after Turkey is Trump and the embattled precious metals will not decline much this year IMHO. All good bottom line for Fres and RRS, look out for another special dividend announcement as profit margins must be really good. Topicel
topicel: Whilst nothing has come to pass yet, my comments above in post 3770 are still genuinely held. Even the explosion beyond £20, should anyone be in any doubt and wish to invest a small amount here. Bullion in the Post are currently finding it necessary to advise a delay in sending out customer orders for bars and coins...and silver, just for Chickcrumbs, is fast approaching $20 an ounze... The bottom line profits of Fres will be huge, and a special dividend is also being muted, I've no doubt, if not a share buyback of billions of pounds worth as just announced by US banks stuffed with cash... The management have long felt the disconnect between the valuation of Rangold in share price terms is too large and a buyback would address that and return more to investors too...that £30-plus a share is perfectly realistic given the global worries yet to come. Oh, and QE is rather good for goldies, at least it was in 2008/9! Topicel
topicel: Suggestions of a special dividend as two years ago are being discussed to reinvigorate the share price. The word is the present paltry dividend is holding back big funds from taking a position here given the volatility in the PM markets so such an announcement that it is under consideration again would be welcome. It is beginning to look like macro issues alone are not enough to break out from the £9-10 range...even the yen strength is having little impact on silver prices really. Topicel
sami69: Dollar going to get stronger I think - It's not going to help Fres share price in short term and expecting to see 670-680 before I get back in.
sami69: No idea what is happening to increases in silver output by FRES. It was just a parameter to think about in trying to forecast FRES share price direction in short term. I have just seen quite a few articles recently on general oversupply recently. eg If demand is slowing globally, may not help silver prices in the short term as well as a stronger $ but on the other hand Greek issues may drive up prices. I am a Fres buyer below 680 and shorter at 870+. In my opinion, Fres is not a share to hold onto for long term unless there is a definite trend of $ declining...
mike740: Fresnillo Close to the Bottom By Gary Newman | Wednesday 25 February 2015 Silver and gold prices have taken a tumble over the past couple of years but now seem to be settling. That has to be good news for Mexican miner Fresnillo (FRES) which has seen its share price more than halve over that period and now trades at around 810p with a market cap of £6 billion. The company has extensive operations in Mexico and is the largest silver producer in the world, and second largest gold producer in Mexico, with silver currently accounting for over 60% of its total revenue. Silver prices rose sharply in 2010 and reached more than $46/oz in March of 2011, and were still as high as $30 at the beginning of 2013, but since then has declined steadily to today’s price of around $16. The good news though is that many analysts now think that it is at or close to the bottom, and increased investment in solar power could help increase demand. Plus there is plenty of interest in silver exchange traded funds (ETFs) – including the largest, iShares Silver Trust – and expectations of renewed interest from other investors at what some see as bargain prices. The dollar has been strong recently and any further strengthening would have a negative impact, in the same way that it also will do with gold.In terms of gold, many are also predicting that a bottom has been found there – even some of the more pessimistic such as Goldman Sachs at least see price increases for 2015 before further drops – and some analysts are now quite bullish. There are still a number of factors though to be wary of though over the coming year which could negatively impact gold prices, as well as dollar strength, and these include any interest rate rises in the US; increased quantitative easing in Europe; and the direction that oil prices take, as at current levels gold doesn’t make as an attractive hedge against inflation as it did at higher oil prices. Fresnillo has already warned that full year results for 2014 have been impacted negatively by a number of factors – ahead of preliminary results being published on March 4. The latest update contained news of a $17 million write-down on the Soledad and Dipolos operations, and also that depreciation and increased cost of sales would reduce gross profit by around $20 million. At the last interims the company reported that gross profit, EBITDA and profit from continuing operations were down by 43.1%, 33.3% and 50.6% respectively. On a positive, cost of sales reduced by 6.1% though, and the amount spent on exploration was 39.9% lower, but this still resulted in the drop in gross profit to $295.1 million. The company currently has a little over $800 million in debt, which costs it $25.5 million to service for the six month period, but looks in a good position with $414 million in cash and a further $750 million in short term investments. The dividend for 2014 is expected to be in line with that of 2013 (exluding the 14p special dividend for that year) at around 7.2p, and the company plans to maintain its policy of paying up to 50% of post-tax profit in dividends. This isn’t one to be holding for the income though, and I would be happy to buy from the current share price level, and lower if you get a chance – there is still a possibility that circa 700p could be seen again, especially if the market reacts badly to annual results and it is worth holding some money back until they are out. In terms of notifiable shorts, Lansdowne Partners is the only major shorter with 0.97%, but that has been held since last July. But from these levels, and as long as you believe that silver and gold prices have upside from here, then it represents a good buying opportunity.
topicel: indeed Hectorp, it is likely to be hedged both for currency fluctuations and those of silver and possibly gold. I guess asking the company is the answer to be certain, but I'd be amazed if they left it simply to market swings for a company this size. The drop in silver did not register in Fres share price as the previous Monday drop of 4pc-plus probably had already been overdone. Agree that there will be wild fluctuations, hence the wide divergence between just four brokers in their recommendations Topicel
cestnous: From I.C. today. Fresnillo's silver bullet Fresnillo's silver bullet SHARE TIPS AND UPDATES Fresnillo PLC (FRES) SPECULATIVE HIGH RISK Bull points Gold/silver ratio implies convergence Silver market in deficit Falling silver inventories Bear points Federal Reserve tapering Bearish sentiment on precious metals At the beginning of March, we closed out a short-term contrarian buy call on Mexican precious metals miner Fresnillo (FRES) after its share price moved back in line with historic earnings multiples. Despite the prevailing negative sentiment dogging its sector, the market value of the stock had increased by 41 per cent in the six weeks since we had originally suggested buying - an impressive short-term gain! But if you missed out first time around, we think that the miner's share price could be in for a repeat performance during the second half of this year. This time our tip isn't based primarily on Fresnillo's valuation. Currently, the miner is trading broadly in line relative to the performance of industry peers, and to the stock's historic earnings multiples. And we won't be delving into Fresnillo's current operational profile; suffice to say that it remains on track to achieve its production targets of 43m ounces of silver and 450,000 gold ounces in 2014. Our renewed faith is linked more to a conviction that the outlook for precious metals markets, particularly that of silver, should improve significantly in the coming months. We maintain our view that Fresnillo is as well managed as any of the precious metals pure plays, but it's hard to ignore the correlation between the miner's share price and spot prices for the underlying commodities, particularly as it does not hedge exposure to gold and silver prices. So any sustained downturn in prices tends to have a commensurate effect on Fresnillo's valuation. That's hardly surprising when you consider that the adjusted gold/silver revenue split for the company during 2013 was 48/47, with the remaining 5 per cent attributable to by-product lead and zinc output. Given this exposure, a note of caution is probably warranted. If anything, since we exited our tip, market sentiment towards gold and silver spot prices has weakened. Inflows into the US dollar increased, while gold demand from both India and China receded. But we view the latter factor as temporary, although it must be acknowledged that treasury demand for gold will invariably slacken when the US Federal Reserve eventually starts to meaningfully reduce its bond-buying programme. But sentiment towards the yellow metal can change quickly. Last week, traders reported an upsurge in demand as concerns mounted that the US recovery may be stalling and on the insurgency in Iraq, which boosted demand for the metal as a safe haven. FRESNILLO (FRES) ORD PRICE: 795p MARKET VALUE: £5.9bn TOUCH: 795-796p 12-MONTHHIGH: 1,322p LOW: 654p DIVIDEND YIELD: 1.8% PE RATIO: 17 NET ASSET VALUE: 309¢ NET CASH: $416m Year to 31 Dec Turnover ($bn) Pre-tax profit ($bn)* Earnings per share (¢)* Dividend per share (¢) 2011 2.2 1.5 126 103.0 2012 2.2 1.2 103 57.9 2013 1.6 0.4 33 27.3 † 2014* 1.3 0.3 26 21.0 2015* 2.1 1.0 77 24.0 % change +56 +200 +196 +14 Normal market size: 2,000 Matched bargain trading Beta: 1.00 £1=$1.68 †Excludes the special dividend of $50.1m, equivalent to 6.8¢ a share. *VSA Capital forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures We also maintain that - based on 'all-in' industry cash costs - the price of gold is unlikely to fall below $1,200/oz (£714/oz) for a sustained period. That contention - and it is just that - is potentially significant when weighed against the gold/silver price ratio, which currently stands at 68. That is roughly the level recorded just prior to the last upward price surge recorded by silver five years ago. It is also well above the long-term average ratio of 50-55. It's logical to suggest that the ratio will converge with its historic average. Admittedly, this could conceivably be brought about by a fall in the gold price. But given that gold - despite overtly bearish predictions - has held its own around the $1,250 mark, we believe that a new floor has been established. So if the gold price stays where it is, then the only way the ratio will narrow is if silver outperforms gold. It's probably overdue anyway, given that gold has outperformed silver by a margin of around 17 per cent over the past two years. There are a number of other compelling reasons why silver - and by extension - Fresnillo is set to outperform. Silver futures trading in China have soared, underlining an overall step-up in investment demand. Last year, trading volumes of silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange finally eclipsed COMEX/CME traded silver futures. And while physical imports of gold into China trailed off in the early part of this year, silver imports registered a double-digit percentage increase. Fabrication demand for the metal has also increased substantially. All this is taking place at a time when silver inventories have been drained due to the collapse in the secondary market for the metal. The metal's current market price simply doesn't outweigh recycling costs. Though miners like Fresnillo have managed to increase primary supply, the overall market is actually in deficit. The fragility of the supply/demand balance is reflected in the ratio of mining supply to inventories, which has narrowed from 7:1 to 1.2:1 since 1990. IC VIEW: Despite the naysayers, market fundamentals are undoubtedly moving in silver's favour. That means that Fresnillo, despite a dearth of stock-specific price catalysts, is back in play. Buy. Last IC view: Take profits, 949p, 4 March 2014
cestnous: A little bit of good news from I.C. today; Fresnillo worth a contrarian bet Fresnillo worth a contrarian bet SHARE TIPS AND UPDATES Fresnillo PLC (FRES) SPECULATIVE HIGH RISK Bull points Low-cost producer Expanding production base Dividend growth rate US indutrial recovery Bear points Falling precious metals prices Free cash-flow constraints in 2014 We've been shying away from precious metals miners since prices went into a tailspin last April. Over the past 12 months the price for an ounce of gold has fallen by over a quarter, silver by over a third, while the plight of the miners has been reflected in a 37 per cent contraction in the Dow Jones Precious Metals index. As ever, debate rages about the likely trajectory of gold and silver prices, but we think there is at least one viable recovery play following the sector meltdown: Mexican silver/gold producer Fresnillo (FRES). Admittedly, Fresnillo's performance over 2013 makes grim reading. The world's biggest primary silver producer lost more than two-thirds of its value relative to the blue-chip index, making it the worst performing FTSE 100 stock. Aside from dwindling receipts linked to its precious metals output, Fresnillo has had to contend with cost pressures domestically, while an as yet unresolved suspension of its explosives permits at the Herradura and Soledad mines has reduced guidance on 2013 gold production by 8.4 per cent to 425,900 ounces (silver production guidance of 41m ounces for 2013 remains unchanged). Matters weren't helped by analysts at JPMorgan Chase who recently reduced their price target on the stock from 1,000p to 965p a share. FRESNILLO (FRES) ORD PRICE: 672p MARKET VALUE: £5.0bn TOUCH: 672-674p 12M HIGH / LOW: 1,770p 658p DIVIDEND YIELD: 2.1% PE RATIO: 25 NET ASSET VALUE: 323¢ NET CASH: $571m Year to 31 Dec Turnover ($bn) Pre-tax profit ($m) Earnings per share (¢) Dividend per share (¢) 2010 1.41 1.02 93.0 44.8 2011 2.19 1.53 126 103 2012 2.16 1.16 103 57.9 2013* 1.64 472 31.0 24.0 2014* 1.79 690 29.0 23.0 % change +9 +49 +22 -4 Normal market size:2,000 Matched bargain trading Beta:1.21 *JPMorgan Cazenove estimates £1=$1.65 So despite the short-lived rally in gold and silver prices at the start of this year, Fresnillo's shares now trade close to their 12-month low. At this level, there is certainly reason to suggest they've been over-sold. The group trades on an enterprise-value-to-operating-profit (EV/EBIT) multiple of 14 times, which is 16 per cent below the sector average rating and half that of its nearest rival Hochschild Mining (HOC) . Relative to its peers Fresnillo has historically traded at a 12 per cent premium on a EV/EBIT basis, based on two years of Bloomberg consensus data. Applying Fresnillo's historic premium to the 16.6 average multiple commanded by competitors implies a share price of about 900p - a third higher than the current level. That said, the shares have lost some dividend support recently based on the forecasts of a large fall in the payout. While the majority ownership of Fresnillo by Mexico's Industrias Peñoles means long-term dividend largesse can be expected, spending commitments are likely to hamper payments in coming years. The group is intent on driving up production to 65m ounces of silver and 500,000 ounces of gold by 2018. To fund this expansion capital expenditure is expected to rise from $690m to $875m this year, which combined with the gold/silver price falls, will constrict free cash flows. However, the group's ability to return cash to shareholders will improve through 2015. JPMorgan Cazenove anticipates that cash profits for the group will rise from $962m in 2014 to $1.23bn in the following year. IC SHARE TIP: Share prices for precious metals producers have come under renewed pressure after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch cut its average 2014 forecast for gold by 11 per cent to $1,150 an ounce and silver by 21 per cent to $18.38 an ounce. Fresnillo maintains that its projects will deliver internal rate-of-returns of 13 to 26 per cent at $1,100/oz gold and $18/oz silver prices. The argument runs that marginal support for gold prices is linked to investment demand from physically-backed exchange traded funds. While this has obviously faltered since the second quarter of 2013, many of the world's biggest gold producers are struggling to keep their all-in sustaining cash costs under $1,250 an ounce, and if economic recovery in the US becomes entrenched through 2014 industrial demand for silver could lift the precious metal's prices enough to attract investors who have turned their backs on the precious metal as a safe haven. And because the benefits of scale enjoyed by Fresnillo are linked to volume growth and its low-cost production, it is better placed than its peers to bounce back from the current industry malaise. Buy. Last IC view: Hold, 925p, 7 Aug 2013
Fresnillo plc share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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