Fresnillo Share Discussion Threads

[topicel] 20/1/2017 20:24

How do we know there is no gold? Urban myth?

I don't see what the IMF has to do with internal US policy regarding their own currency, the global reserve currency, which is basically "we do as we wish"...

The point, for I couldn't care particularly how the Yanks manage really, is that all roads lead to a weaker or disintegrating petro-dollar and means gold and silver will rise as a result.

This is the Fresnillo thread and the analysis about the dollar is relevant only as far as that goes as far as I'm concerned!

Topicel

[breaktwister] 20/1/2017 13:48

I concur Topicel but the US faces two major hurdles in respect of dollar weakening and any idea of a return to sound money: 1. The US treasury has no gold as Reagan discovered when they last considered sound money in the 80s. 2. US no longer has control of the IMF and the SDR plan. I hope Trump can change the mess that has been created since USA screwed the whole world in 71 by freefloating all fait currencies.

[topicel] 20/1/2017 08:59

If my analysis based on the main MAGA policy is correct, Trump needs a weaker dollar, has now roiled the markets last weekend by saying so and has numerous sound money and gold standard aficionados on his team.

His principal financial backers are sound money and gold bugs, such as Mercer, and he has a history of defaulting on things or even declaring aspects of his businesses bankrupt to avoid tax...so what on earth would make anyone calculate he won't be good for PMs and bad for the dollar.

Hell, even inflation is rearing its ugly head, and he won't want interest rate rises to counter it too fast as that will prevent him raising cheap money for his infrastructure dreams. These, btw, can only be successful if the dollar is weak so US industry can export again to MAGA!

The whole is a virtuous circle. It just hasn't been worked out yet as it's not been openly stated. You can have a trade war with China not by calling them currency manipulators but by simply knocking your own currency down. Devalue if you must.

I remember good old Harold Wilson doing it for the UK in 1967. A necessary evil as we were still struggling with our own debts of WWII much as Trump will be encumbered by the 20 trillion US debt mountain and the interest payments on that means rates can't go up very much.

If I've missed anything I'd be happy to be told. But this has been clear to me since the reversal on the night of the election, and that reversal was orchestrated IMHO. The correct reaction was what we saw in the hours after the vote was decided...and with a bit of luck we'll be back there as soon as Mr. T opens his mouth this weekend!

Topicel

[dt1010] 19/1/2017 15:26

Yeah I guess... Will be interesting to see how far we drop though

Maybe target 1300 ?

Power dry

[topicel] 19/1/2017 14:50

I know you bought then; it did indeed seem like you are expecting lower, more than wishful thinking...

Topicel

[dt1010] 19/1/2017 13:04

Top dude I bought at 11.58, my posts are there at the time.....

I guess I should rephrase....

I'd like more, cheaply ;)

All depends on the silver price!!

[dt1010] 17/1/2017 15:49

Agree but not in a straight line

I want to average down tbh

[saturn5] 17/1/2017 15:30

Dollar is likely to fall
Silver will rise and Fres will see £20 this year

[dt1010] 17/1/2017 13:29

Silver is gaining

Er...this isn't?

A lot of nervous people worried about short term pm resistance.

Bless 'em ;)

[hectorp] 16/1/2017 19:19

Yes your deck paved with gold My deck needs care and scrubbing.

[goldenshare888] 16/1/2017 08:01

MAJOR GAINS on deck!

:)))

[eriktherock] 15/1/2017 20:32

English 'O' Level ?

[saturn5] 15/1/2017 18:29

there is do much problem with the dollar that silver should rocket

[dt1010] 13/1/2017 15:06

The big and mid caps move first then the small and micro cap explorers.

Big money goes into big companies. Pension/trust money etc has to go into large caps as per fund rules.

Weakness of the Peso will help revenues here ;)

[stevea171] 13/1/2017 14:20

Hector. That is my view, yes. I hold some only for the short term and for diversification and liquidity. If a bull market in the PM's ever gets properly going again (like Trump abolishing the Fed Reserve) then the mid caps and small caps should give better % appreciation.

[hectorp] 13/1/2017 11:43

Topicel, good moaning,

The USD - even Ambrose - Prichard of the Telegraph believes the dollar will spike higher in coming weeks, though Mr Trump seems to have cut short his boost to the Dow by his talk two days ago.
but- there is an interesting idea floating around the Fed, they may do something to the balance sheet instead of more interest rate hikes ( after 1% I mean) but we will need to wait and see. Also "What will trump and his people wish the Fed to do" is another issue.
What such action will do of course is simply to " stave off the evil day" by another year or so. It also infers rates could fall then, " even negative".
There is even talk of cancelling the National Debt $200 Trillion, simply having Jubilee but I'd say that is far down the line.
We will see.
H

[hectorp] 13/1/2017 11:38

steve IS FRES perhaps just too large ( eg compared to small silver miners) to maker a large move back up assuming silver makes such a move?
anyhow, its down 35 points, noting this positive slant on silver here, gold has a rollover this month but not silver:


I'm having a look into this signal tool called extreme Hurst tool. ( as mentioned in the above article)
No pun intended.

[dt1010] 12/1/2017 17:12

2 weeks to reporting on final quarter and FY production result.

25 Jan 2017 Fresnillo 4Q/16 Production Report

[stevea171] 12/1/2017 11:43

Brink. Thanks for the article on FRES. Costs and capex shooting up, profits down but avoiding losses unlike many others.

HOC, another top 5 primary silver producer, was one not to avoid losses but it's gone through a transition and has come out much leaner and stronger:

AISC reduced from $21.7 oz (2012) to $12.9 (2015) to expected $11-11.50 oz (2016).

Company output increased from 20.5 to 35+ million Ag equiv oz (+70%) from 2013-16.

It's completed the heavy capex on it's 100% owned new world class Inmaculada mine in Peru with blue sky ahead!

Back in profit last year, 2016 and dividend restored. Ftse250.

It reports next week.

[brink] 12/1/2017 10:34

There's a very interesting (and, for those of us who've held Fresnillo for a long time, rather depressing) article on Fresnillo by Steve St Angelo, looking at the profitability, production and investment over a decade.

srsroccoreport.com/market-invention-crushed-profit-margins-at-largest-primary-silver-mining-producer/

[topicel] 12/1/2017 09:29

Lol GS, calm down mate!

All we need is for the Donald to be let out to play again and the wall of worry internationally will knock the dollar and boost PMs in equal measure.

Which, btw, is exactly what he needs to 'Make America Great Again' as the basic economics won't allow him to otherwise. Never forget the very real debt mountain and year-on-year oil price surge coming through of 100%-plus leading to PMs best friend inflation.

Which will be also Trump's bestest mate as he sees the debt eroded by rising costs. Just need to kill the Fed so the banksters don't go raising rates now...

Tough medicine but it's been coming and needed.

Topicel

[goldenshare888] 12/1/2017 08:59

:)))

WALL OF MONEY COMING! $1200+ GOLD seen as a critical level by many.

[shakeypremis] 12/1/2017 08:50

At the moment it looks like it might be FRES. But HOC is traditionally slow and decides to catch up several days worth of gains in a day.