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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
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Freeplay | LSE:FRE | London | Ordinary Share | GB00B010Q778 | ORD 5P |
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- | O | 0 | 4.75 | GBX |
Freeplay Energy (FRE) Share Charts1 Year Freeplay Energy Chart |
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1 Month Freeplay Energy Chart |
Intraday Freeplay Energy Chart |
Date | Time | Title | Posts |
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23/8/2008 | 01:31 | Freddie Mac: Credit Risk & Rate Sensitivity | 26 |
25/4/2008 | 12:33 | Freeplay any views | 7 |
21/7/2005 | 17:46 | Freddie & Fannie in Crisis: CONVEXITY Risk | 5 |
14/8/2003 | 23:17 | friends profvident - buy some more to stag | 5 |
20/7/2002 | 21:19 | Freeserve Virus? | - |
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Posted at 23/8/2008 01:31 by energyi See my article / on FNM & FRE: "The Twin Towers of Debt""This is how I believe the bubble will burst: Banks and securities buyers will stop providing debt on the same easy terms as before. A tightening of credit availability, will slow the housing market, and turn it down. Once it becomes apparent that credit is tighter and house prices are falling, the current virtuous cycle, pushing house prices higher and higher, will reverse and go into a vicious cycle. Houses prices will fall, and put loans in jeopardy. The lenders will react by lending less, and on less attractive terms. This will dry up demand for housing. The timing of this turn in housing may be soon. Indeed, it may be happening now, right in front of our eyes." /see: |
Posted at 10/8/2005 21:55 by energyi I covered my FRE shorts (sold puts actually).I am waiting for a bounce to reload |
Posted at 10/8/2005 21:40 by karzy Banc Of America Securities Repeats Sell Rating On Fannie By Dawn Kopecki, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Banc of America Securities repeated its sell recommendation Tuesday on embattled mortgage finance company Fannie Mae (FNM) after the company outlined a longer-than-anticipa Fannie's stock price fell on its recent disclosure, tumbling $2.36 a share or more than 4% in afternoon trading to $52.47 a share. Equity analyst Robert Lacoursiere told investors in a "flash" research note that Fannie's slow restatement process, delayed financial results, lack of public disclosures and restrictive regulatory environment, among other things, make the company's stock price unattractive. He placed a 12-month price target of $53 on Fannie. "Our sell rating is based on Fannie's poorer relative capitalization relative to peer Freddie Mac (FRE) and the company's slower and relatively more opaque restatement process," Lacoursiere told investors, noting that "transparency is still a major issue" at Fannie. Fannie's new Chief Executive Daniel Mudd and other top executives outlined a longer-than-anticipa Mudd said Fannie's restatement and 2004 earnings results won't be completed until the last half of next year and were vague on when the company's 2005 earnings would be completed. Mudd told investors Fannie's 2005 results would be released sometime after the restatement was completed late next year, indicating that those disclosures may not come until 2007. Executives also said they were reconsidering several supplemental disclosures Fannie provides to investors on a regular basis, declining to elaborate. "This timeline will likely disappoint the market, which was discounting a more timely re-audit," Lacoursiere told investors, noting that his original forecasts for Fannie assumed the restatement process could take several years. Lacoursiere initiated coverage on Fannie Mae with a sell recommendation on July 18. |
Posted at 26/7/2005 14:24 by energyi More: 15 Days ..................... |
Posted at 21/7/2005 22:18 by energyi "if their risk-based capital were raised to the level of where commercial banks are that would assuage a good deal of the problem"If implemented, they would have to SELL alot more equity... at a lower price |
Posted at 21/7/2005 22:13 by energyi Greenspan Warns China Of 'Serious' Threats Greg Levine, 07.20.05, 4:40 PM ET Related Quotes FNM 58.52 - 0.74 FRE 65.53 - 1.20 Chinese roulette? Alan Greenspan had some strong words for Beijing Wednesday. Speaking to the House Financial Services Committee, he said the teeming Asian nation faces "very serious" dangers to its economy if it persists in holding its currency's value down. The U.S. Federal Reserve chairman explicated his view, saying that China's financial engineering required amassing "very large" amounts of U.S. Treasury securities. He maintained, "Unless they sterilize that very substantial inflow, they create significant distortions in their financial system and ultimately could be very serious for the Chinese economy." However, the Fed chief reiterated his view that the U.S. ought not to impose tariffs as a means of forcing China to revalue the yuan. He argued that such force was unlikely to lead to an increase in U.S. employment and could have unintended consequences. "Anything that we do which restricts world globalization, at the end of the day rebounds to our disadvantage," Greenspan was quoted as saying in various reports. On the home front, the chairman cautioned, "The significant rise in purchases of homes for investment since 2001 seems to have charged some regional markets with speculative fever." As scrutiny of mortgage giants Fannie Mae (nyse: FNM - news - people ) and Freddie Mac (nyse: FRE - news - people ) intensifies, Greenspan opined that greater use of such instruments as interest-only mortgages were of "particular concern." He said these types of mortgages left home buyers "vulnerable to adverse events" if home prices begin to fall. The chairman called for the Fed to continue gradual interest-rate increases @: |
Posted at 30/7/2003 18:27 by geologic CONVEXITY?A Strange Sounding WORD? What does it mean? By the end of the year, you will be hearing alot more about this. This risk, may/has put Freddie & Fannie into a Financial Crisis First, a look at some charts: : FRE ............. : FNM ............. : TNX ............. : SPX CONVEXITY has to do with... The "Duration" (or time risk) within a portfolio. In the case of FRE & FNM, it arises because of a feature of the US Mortgage market: many US borrowers enjoy Fixed Rate loans, and the lenders that provide those loans, have to deal with the risk of early repayment. In practice, the loans get repaid early (get "refinanced") when rates drop. Maybe not all the loans, but a substantial proportion get repaid when there is a sharp drop in rates. This creates a problem for FRE & FNM because they aim to match the Duration of their assets with the duration of their liabilities. So when loans are repaid early, the liability remains, and this leaves a potential mismatch. If they do nothing to restore the match, they can lose money in the way the Amerucan S&L's did some years ago. If the Lend Long, and Borrow Short, and rates rise, they can go bust. How? Rising rates would mean that they could wind up paying a higher interest rate on their liabilities than they receive on their loans. They can alos get hurt if rates drop, because their high earning assets melt away as mortgages get refinance. But they are left with the more expensive debt. To minimise this risk, they frequently "rebalance" their durations, to avoid being left with mismatched time frames. But there is another more complex risk they are stuck with, and this rates to volatility. More on that later. How do these lenders deal with this? The funds they receive from early repayment, they invest in 10Year or longer duration bonds, and this serves to increase the duration of their portfolios, helping to keep it in match with their liabilities. ACCELERATORS As rates fall, there is an "acceleration effect". To rebalance their portfolios, they must add bonds. So this happens: when yields fall, and bonds are rising in price, FRE/FNM expect to see refinancings, so they BUY BONDS to lengthen their duratiosn, putting MORE UPWARD PRESSURE on Bonds (and downward pressure on rates.) They are so large, that their buying matters to the market, and thus a slight push by the Fed is accelerated by the actions of these two. Of course, it acts in reverse too. When rates increase, and refinancing pressures ease, they sell bonds, and this puts upward pressure on rates. Small moves are thereby exaggerated and enhanced by these two. Overall volatility in the rate market rises. Have a look at the recent movements in 10year rates (TNX): You can see HUGE VOLATILITY: First, a drop from about 4.0% in late April, to a low of 3.1% in early June. Followed by the shapest move in Bond history, from the 3.1% important Low to 4.4% in recent days (late July.) How does this effect the GRE's (FRE & FMN)? The acceleration and huge reversal meant that they were aggressively buying bonds into early June (when prices were pushing up to historical highs), as they anticipated a jump in refinancing activity. As rates reversed, and bonds fell sharply, they have been forced to sell those bonds (at much lower prices) as bond prices showed one of their most rapid collapses in history. ...BIG LOSSES in their portfolios... # # # # # Convexity Class: |
Posted at 23/9/2002 17:15 by limpsfield chartist This can't be good news:Congressman Frank Open to Ending Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac's Credit Line at Treasury WASHINGTON -- A top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee Monday said he would consider proposals to remove Fannie Mae (FNM, news) and Freddie Mac's (FRE, news) line of credit at the U.S. Treasury, as well as the special tax exemptions that the two government-sponsored enterprises currently hold. Rep. Richard Baker (R., La.) has been pushing to eliminate Fannie and Freddie's $2.25 billion line of credit with the Treasury, saying it implies the federal government will bail out the publicly traded companies if they should ever fail. |
Posted at 18/9/2002 00:46 by limpsfield chartist Some interesting news yesterday:Fannie, Freddie, Others Decry Sen. Durbin Bankruptcy Bill Fannie Mae (FNM, news), Freddie Mac (FRE, news) and other housing-related entities told Sen. David Durbin, D-Ill., that a bankruptcy bill he introduced recently poses "a significant risk of destabilizing the secondary mortgage and mortgage-backed securities markets and causing and immediate and substantially adverse effect on the economy." |
Posted at 11/9/2002 09:16 by energyi I'm trying order these stats a bit: (OFHEO report):Amts.in Bn's of$ .Year: 2000. .Year: 2001. ................ FNM FRE Tot : FNM FRE Tot change Pct. MBS Issuances... 334 289 623 : 515 387 902 +279 + 44.8% MBS Purchases... 105 +59 164 : 180 158 338 +174 +106.1% Pct. Purchased.. 31% 20% 26% : 35% 41% 37% Net Issuances... 229 230 459 : 335 229 564 +105 + 22.8% Total Assets.... ... . $1.1Tr. ... . $1.4Tr. .. + 27%? Total Debt...... ... . $1.0Tr. ... . $1.3Tr. .. + 24.0% The worrying thing is that the huge increase in issuance (as US home owners rush to buy homes and refinance existing ones) has not been matched with an increase in demand for MBS. Consequently, the two F's had to increase the amounts they are holding on their own balance sheets which are becoming massively over-geared (40:1). They will need to raise new equity (many $billions?) which would depress their share prices, or to sell/distribute MBS more aggressively. To increase Distribution, they may need to raise rates, to make those securities more attractive to the market. This will increase borrowing costs for home owners. The system is creaking under the pressure of these massive financings! And they show no sign of slowing. |
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