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|See my article / on FNM & FRE: "The Twin Towers of Debt"
"This is how I believe the bubble will burst: Banks and securities buyers will stop providing debt on the same easy terms as before.
A tightening of credit availability, will slow the housing market, and turn it down. Once it becomes apparent that credit is tighter and house prices are falling, the current virtuous cycle, pushing house prices higher and higher, will reverse and go into a vicious cycle. Houses prices will fall, and put loans in jeopardy. The lenders will react by lending less, and on less attractive terms. This will dry up demand for housing. The timing of this turn in housing may be soon. Indeed, it may be happening now, right in front of our eyes."
|Just read Trevor Baylis's book "Clock this" thought provoking, shocking in places, historically informative, a good laugh and optomistic all in one, highly recommended.
Interesting to compare with James Dyson's "Against the Odds".
The only thing is you will want to buy a clockwork radio as soon as you put the book down!|
|Yield curve has inverted NOW.
History suggests an 88% chance of a Recession|
Weekly and Monthly|
|I covered my FRE shorts (sold puts actually).
I am waiting for a bounce to reload|
|Banc Of America Securities Repeats Sell Rating On Fannie
By Dawn Kopecki, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Banc of America Securities repeated its sell recommendation Tuesday on embattled mortgage finance company Fannie Mae (FNM) after the company outlined a longer-than-anticipated restatement process in a morning conference call with investors.
Fannie's stock price fell on its recent disclosure, tumbling $2.36 a share or more than 4% in afternoon trading to $52.47 a share.
Equity analyst Robert Lacoursiere told investors in a "flash" research note that Fannie's slow restatement process, delayed financial results, lack of public disclosures and restrictive regulatory environment, among other things, make the company's stock price unattractive. He placed a 12-month price target of $53 on Fannie.
"Our sell rating is based on Fannie's poorer relative capitalization relative to peer Freddie Mac (FRE) and the company's slower and relatively more opaque restatement process," Lacoursiere told investors, noting that "transparency is still a major issue" at Fannie.
Fannie's new Chief Executive Daniel Mudd and other top executives outlined a longer-than-anticipated earnings delay, indicated the company could scale back several voluntary disclosures while it completes a multi-year, multi-billion earnings restatement, and refused to provide details for riskier assets the company has been adding to its portfolio in recent months.
Mudd said Fannie's restatement and 2004 earnings results won't be completed until the last half of next year and were vague on when the company's 2005 earnings would be completed. Mudd told investors Fannie's 2005 results would be released sometime after the restatement was completed late next year, indicating that those disclosures may not come until 2007. Executives also said they were reconsidering several supplemental disclosures Fannie provides to investors on a regular basis, declining to elaborate.
"This timeline will likely disappoint the market, which was discounting a more timely re-audit," Lacoursiere told investors, noting that his original forecasts for Fannie assumed the restatement process could take several years.
Lacoursiere initiated coverage on Fannie Mae with a sell recommendation on July 18.|
Fannie Mae in trouble?|
|More: 15 Days ............................................ : Intraday: 1 minute....