|Jan 2016 "Confirmed orders to date for 2016 are currently €3.5m"
Jan 2016 re: Eboracum "large order ...for a total of €2m ... shipment of this order [is] expected in Q1 2016"
Dec 2016 "Fox Marble anticipates revenues ... for the 12 months to 31 December 2016 to be in the region of €0.7m,"
That's not a good conversion rate EUR 3.5m of confirmed 2016 orders result in EUR 0.7m of sales.
Yes, it's all history. These are just my own notes|
|" we will all know by the end of this year if Fox can sell their marble"
Hasn't that sentence been as valid as it is now every year for the past 4? I thought Chris confirmed that the lack of orders was not based on any inability to supply?|
Wouldn't you expect FOX to conduct some due diligence before entering into agreements with companies that wish to place large orders? And before making official announcements to the stock market?
If you run a company and I come in and place a 2 million Euro order, would you just accept it, or check me out and ask for a reference, and ask me a few questions first?
At the very least wouldn't you check out my registration on the internet? If I can download their registration from the Gibraltar Companies House, upon paying a small fee, surely FOX could have done the same?
Banyan placed a 1.8 million order 5 days after being registered as a company!|
|I am still alive and still a large holder. Investing not my top priority when sitting on a beach in Jamaica!!|
|EC I agree you can't blame the management for taking these orders and some even paid money upfront. The obsession here with the order book is overdone, we will all know by the end of this year if Fox can sell their marble. I'm no expert but I reckon sooner or later they will start to sell and take a small share of the €20 billion world market. Even a 0.5% share makes Fox very profitable. So let's just sit back and see where we are next January. As for Stone Alliance, I don't really understand it but it could just be a big wild card here and Fox's stake worth much more than the current market cap but I don't expect anything to happen quickly.|
Clearly you agree with me that FOX has been extremely unlucky to be the recipient of vexatious orders from newly established companies with no obvious will or ability to fulfil their side of the bargain and that FOX management had no knowledge of these peculiar circumstances.|
No they will do as they have done previously, and 'slip' the orders into the following year, and so on and so forth.
It will not be declared a failure, management will continue.
How much of the current order book do you think is 'active'? out of interest.|
|Andy yes I get it and I'm not happy with this order book situation but I think a forensic examination of the old order book won't help. They need to make actual sales to bona fide customers this year. If that doesn't happen then it must be declared a failure and the asset sold.|
|Banyan made a EUR 1.5M order over 18 months, FOX RNSed it and then delivered EUR 100K worth of marble over the next 18 months. The rest is still in the order book BTW.
That's a nice thought, but for those of us who attended and remember the 2012 initial FOX presentation with a factory completion date of late 2012 or H1 2013, it's a bit too late for that now.
They are well over 2 years late, I make it over 3 years, based on that original presentation.
In all that time management have been rewarded well for their efforts yet shareholder value has decreased by over 60%, and although the company has declared large 'orders', it was only recently revealed there is a huge difference between an order, and an actual sale.
As Wolstencroft rightly points out above, When you look more closely at who the originators of the large orders are, they seem to be of little substance, and no prior trading record.
Take a look at Banyan, as an example, formed only a few days before a large order was submitted, but how much of that order has been converted into sales?
Then look at Eboracum, how much of their order of 2 million Euros, with 390,000 paid upfront has been converted into sales?
Take a look at the last results for the answers to those questions............
The advance payment from Eboracum was 390,000 Euros, not 300,000, corrected now|
|We don't have to "give them a chance" - you make it sound as if our postings are somehow holding them back!
Czar, let's start from now then: Removing Eboracum and Zhong and Banyan how big, after years of marketing, is their order book? My guess is less than EUR 1M. Why don't we all make a guess and then ask Chris?|
|Gents I suggest you forget about all this nonsense, conspiracy theories etc, just take now as the start point. This is a new enterprise that only just finished their factory and will, hopefully, begin building sales this year. The underlying asset is so massive, something like €60billion and the market cap only £14m that not much traction on sales is needed this year for them to deliver a multiple of today's price. I understand the frustration, this factory is 2 years late and the sales to date are minute but let's give them a chance this year, if they make a few million € of sales this year we are off to the races as that will build over the coming years. If they don't someone will take them out for something around the current price, possibly more. So on a risk reward there is only upside IMHO and possibly massive upside.|
Exactly, we're not the source of "fake news", whereas Tom's article is certainly not accurate!
Maybe that's what he meant? :-)|
|"according to the knockers, means it is going bust/is a fraud and that Fox will issue a profits warning. This has seen the shares drift to 7.75p"
Surely it's Tom who's guilty of fake news as the share price was here before the gazette came out?
It's a relief that Tom managed to speak with the sole officer (I guess he must have to find out what's really going on), as Scott has failed to answer most questions about missing monies in the case of Jigsaw Leisure. The liquidators were pleased that I'd told them about Eboracum and Fox as they'd had trouble tracking Scott down....|
I follow his stuff too, and often listen to his bearcasts, depending upon the subject companies, he makes some good scoops about companies, and has certainly saved shareholders in some companies a lot of money by highlighting shortcomings, and even worse.
And yes you are correct, he does become defensive, which is fine if he genuinely believes in a company, but he should play the ball and not the men. (Something he often accuses others of doing to him).
All he needed to do was report his conversation with the company, and their reply, that's what people want to read. Why go further and become personal?
"unexpectedly defensive" is fine, but to accuse people of "fake news" when he himself has wrongly quoted people in his own article is a bit much!|
|I'm a great admirer of Tom, who gets excoriated for exposing doubtful dealings. However, when a company he is enthusiastic gets attacked, he can be unexpectedly defensive: a bit like those whom he dismisses (with good reason) as "bulletin board morons". I remember when Global Witness produced a report criticising United Cacao (CHOC), Tom accused them of dishonestly undermining a good company. I read the report and though it well researched, and became a supporter of Global Witness. Tom has since become less star struck by CHOC.|
Tom's article really is poor, in that he accuses people of:
"which, according to the knockers, means it is going bust/is a fraud and that Fox will issue a profits warning"
If he is referring to this thread, where did anyone make any of those comments?
"This has seen the shares drift to 7.75p"
No, the LACK OF SALES (as opposed to orders) has seen this drift to 7.75p. In fact before the Eboracum "news" was mentioned on the thread, the share price was lower!
"As it happens Eboracum is not the major customer, it is one of the larger customers but there are now quite a few"
Ok, do they include Banyan and Zhong, and how many sales have they processed recently between them all? Why not name the largest customers?
"It pays to make phone calls to establish what is really going on."
Who should we ring, Scott Oldfield?
"a string and growing order book with a factory able to service its customers, including Eboracum."
But SALES are needed, Fox have been poor this far in converting orders into sales.
And then he goes on to accuse people (presumably us) of "fake news", basically lying!|
|Because it would focus on the fact that 60-80% of their order book is from new companies with no track record, offices, or named directors save former bar managers who both seem to have made an initial order / payment for a fraction of the order value then gone quiet contrary to claims in the RNS that at least some of the orders would be filled within a shorter period, but which allows Chris to keep on mentioning order book worth millions of Euros?
No, can't be that. Must be another reason.|
I agree, I find the tone of Tom's article very disappointing, to say the least.
He comes across as being angry that one of his long stocks is receiving negative comment, "let's clear this up now".
Why don't the company issue a news release instead of Tom?|
|Fox might pull through - like people have said they need new customers. I don't like the Eboracum and Banyan deals. IMHO I think that they warrant proper forensic investigation.
Chris can't seem to get new sales and he can't simply announce a new deal with a brand new company for £Xm over the next 18 months because people will look at EBroacum and Banyan and Zhong and perhaps not believe.|
|Andy and wolstencroft:- Thanks for your input - I am still very much on the side until the coy can provide real evidence of sell throughs to the final user and not just potential orders from stockists/dealers.|
|Tom says things of "a personal nature for key personnel" is why "the company has not filed its accounts" and further "It pays to make phone calls to establish what is really going on."
It's actually the confirmation statement they didn't file...so much for establishing what is really going on...
He also says "It has taken delivery of one order and paid for it". Hmm they should have bought well over a £million by now with lots of orders.
Of course he says it is a buy....|
Very possibly, companies often arrange for a tipster to mention them when they're in need of a boost, so the Eboracum news (if true) could cause them to promote, and that normally results in increased trading.
This is one of TW's favourite longs, he's always supportive, but he he hasn't mentioned them in the last few days to my knowledge.
120,000 shares traded so far today, around £10,000 in total, so not huge by any standards, although more active than usual.
Bid/offer remain the same.|
|Has this been tipped somewhere ? More trades and buying activity than normal Friday & today.
No news from the Company about the Eboracum news reported above I would have expected a RNS from the company - either to refute or confirm as (imo) it appears significant (if true( within the regulations.|
|Without sales, does it matter?
If they open it their costs will increase as they have to employ skilled labour, unless they have zero hour contracts in Kosovo!
Interesting that they haven't adjusted the order book, if Eboracum are being struck off, and Banyan don't seem very active either.
And the "order book" value is just meaningless as orders are not actually sales.|