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Real-Time news about Forum Energy (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|corrientes: Sold FPM shares, must be 10 or so years ago now, yet after all this time, every so often I still get snake oil salesmen offering to buy them for a private company at an ever increasingly and ridiculously high premium to the prevailing share price. They must be mad, so what are these shysters after ; my identity (?) for they certainly won't get any personal or financial details.
Just had this guy, supposedly from Canada,on the phone, going through the spiel for about 10 minutes. He said he could prove I still held the shares, despite my protestations to the contrary.
Get the same sort of routine with Firestone Diamonds, where the shares were sold maybe 7 years ago, so what's in it for these crooks I wonder ?|
|cfccfc1970: Andrew Mullins sold the shares he received under the share option at £2 per share to the parent company. The £2 share price offer was not made available to other shareholders.|
|glasswala: There must be a fund raising going on behind the scenes as this is the only explanation why this share has not risen in line with PHX. The initial rise in PHX to 32 then a subsequent fall to about 26 with a rise back up to an all time high of 38 and presently 36. But the FEP share price rose intially to £2.60 only to drop all the way back to £1.25 to presently £1.36. This has not gone past its all time high again!!!|
|timberwolf3: Dr knowledge - back in April we were loading up on the back of speculation in the Philippino press, within a week FEP share price had quadrupuled (albeit briefly)after they eventually got the announcement out.
No reason why it shouldn't happen again.|
The only issue witht hat is that PXP essentially have their mkt cap supported by their share of SC72 at around 20x the current FEP share price.
If they offer £2 a share it would equate to their own stock being worth ~4Php|
|rbonnier: the situation regarding the share price is absolutely hopeless the pxp share price could be a million pesos but it wont make any difference here as the FEP share price is driven by these 5k sells that keep appearing on a very regular basis to keep the share price down .Ive lost interest tbh as I dont know what is going to exite the share price the seismic rns will probably say they have confirmed 3.4 tcf identified areas of significant interest and intend to drill 2 wells results in another 12 months ,and down the share price goes again !
Im Not far short of giving the game up .|
|rbonnier: Appreciate the effort there unionhall Im amazed at the difference between the pxp price and FEP what is it nearly 10 times higher for the same assets and a few other bits and bats and still no buyers here it just doesnt add up you would have thought the buyers of pxp would buy FEP instead 10 times cheaper for the same exposure and the potential to make much bigger profits if the FEP share price ever plays catch up .
There again the market makers are masters at getting sellers here hike the share price then drop it back and wait for the sellers that appear as sure as day follows night .I reckon that 46k at 69p might have been a sell they ran the share price up then to flog the stock at higher prices before dropping back sharply as soon as the sellers appeared .|
|nick2412: Unionhall - I didn't ask him this time aside from focus on what could be done to close the gap - hence the discussion of Eddision but I have done in a previous conversation.
When I raised it a couple of months ago, he indicated that PXP may have got a little ahead of events but agreed that FEP is substantially under-valued. After all the gap is massive so even if they were to meet half way that would be about a 400p FEP share price. Since then PXP has climbed even more. There must be some reason. I'd like to think there is some progress in farm-out discussions but who knows.
They certainly need to address the issue and I hope they will take up the suggestion of using the likes of Proactive Investors and/or Fat Prophets to cover them. Eddison's lost credibility by using U.S. gas prices as the basis for their valuation when the gas will be sold in Asia where prices were about $12 compared to sub $4 in the U.S. That makes a massive difference to the valuation figure.|
|nick2412: Just put this on the FECOF bulletin board to see if they can get a handle on how much Atok and Philex Petroleum are valuing their stake in FEP etc. :-
"Manuel Pangilinan, chairman of Philex Mining, said there is a possibility that the company would partially fund the drilling of two wells in the next sub-phase of service contract 72 estimated at $86 million and covers the period between now and 2013. Since Forum Energy owns 70 percent of the concession, Pangilinan said the company would have a two-step funding source with "Philex Mining funding Philex Petroleum, and Philex Petroleum funding Forum Energy for its share of the work program."
The funding issue is interesting. With Philex having history of funding at a substantial premium ( a high multiple of the prevailing share price in the case of FECOF in 2010) then I hope and anticipate that any drilling funding will be done at a significant premium to the UK FEP share price. It will be if it is based on the Philex Petroleum and Atok share price.
The hope - and a bit of expectation - is that the Atok Big wedge and Philex Petroleum share price will set the price per share funding level for Forum Energy. I can't see their investors accepting anything else. So that's why it becomes even more important to get a handle on how much FEP is valued at in these two PSE listed company. It's easier with Atok as they only have a bit of cash and their 26% FEP holding as far as I can see.
Can anyone get a handle on U.S.$ or £ sterling the market cap for Atok?
See the Market cap for Atok as quoted on the PSE site 63,625,000,000.00 PHP - > it Converts to £918m but surely this must be an error in the PSE site figures? Can't be correct for a bit of cash plus a 26% stake in FEP.
63,625,000,000.00 PHP = 918,227,013.37 GBP
Philippine Peso British Pound
1 PHP = 0.0144319 GBP 1 GBP = 69.2911 PHP
I'm not sure how much cash Atok have but they must have spent most of it on Tidemark/FEP. I assume it must be a decimal point error so I'm guessing a £9.18m valuation for Atok which would get us to close to the valuation at 120p per share that they paid Tidemark. It has no other stock assets than FEP so whether it is a value of £9.18m or even an unlikely £91.8m there is a massive difference in how the two markets value FEP.
Anyway, the main thing is that investors in Atok & Philex Petroleum will want to see funding at their valuation levels not FEP or FECOF's which would make things very interesting for the latter.
There's still a good chance though I suspect of a farm-out which would mean FEP has a reduced carry free interest and the new partner(s) would pay in full for the $86m drilling work. Either scenario looks good. Perhaps seismology results will dictate whether there is farm-in before or after the $86m drilling programme.
So I suppose the main 'bear' issue is whether the Philippines will go full steam ahead and risk upsetting China. I still think a Chinese company participation in the project as part of the farm-out will be the 'win-win' resolution. I suspect if the seismology is good this will result in a partner and a carry free interest for FEP / Philex and all the other associated investors.
Vietnam have tied with India for exploration in an area claimed by China in the South China Sea without repercussions and given the SC72 territory block is so obviously in Philippines waters and unrelated to the Spratlys then I don't see any reason for the Philippines to be timid.|
|nick2412: Quite a lively board for FECOF on what looks like a U.S version of advfn, Investors Hub :-
I've just posted there as holders in both companies are in similar positions although I'd rather be in the direct holder of SC72 than a third party investment.
I'm invested in FEP and it's good to see an active board in FECOF - both are very much out of kilter with the market cap / valuations of the two listings in the Philippines - Philex Petroleum & Atok Big Wedge (AB). Figures are all in GBP sterling.
It looks like Atok Big Wedge paid 120p per share for the 26% FEP they acquired from Tidemark Holdings. I don't think Tidemark had anything in it other than FEP so that compares very nicely with the current 48p per share FEP trades at. FEP is so much under the radar that I don't think the market has cottoned on ..besides I'm not sure the Philippines listing would drive the UK listing price but perhaps it should ... local knowledge and all that.
I can't get a handle on how much Atok is worth because they did have cash. They sold their other asset so I think they just hold FEP and a bit of cash. But cash will have been depleted by the FEP purchase.
Anyone know Atok's market cap and the amount of cash they hold? Again they look to be trading at a premium to even the 120p FEP share price they recently paid.
As for Philex Petroeum their market cap is about £153m compared to FEP's £15m (over ten times FEP's value) they do have a couple of other assets of course 10% plus in pitkin resources but all the buzz in the press and on the local Philippines forums has been about the FEP holding. Again the two valuations are very much out of kilter.
Holders should have a better handle on things this quarter when Seismology results are due in. 3.4TCF is proven and previous reports have guesstimated the resource is between 10 & 20 tcf. I've no idea to what extent the seismology will be able to say it looks like a potential of XX TCF over and above the proven 3.4TCF ..any thoughts?
I wonder what will make it economic for a major to want to farm-in? Also will the 3D seismology will give enough information for big player to come in at this stage prior to any drilling.
I don't think we will see a takeover for FECOF or FEP because with the Chinese situation it's very useful to have UK , USA & Canadian holders.
We could of course see either Atok make a play for Philex Petroleum or vice versa but that's fine with me as either party would have to pay around or a bit more than their trading price which is fine with me!
The other thing coming in this quarter is SC40 is going commercial which is useful revenue along with Galoc revenue but as we all know the driver of the stock will be SC72.
I can only see a Chinese major coming in for the farm-in like CANOOC as that is a neat way of appeasing China without compromising what, under U.N. Law, is Philippine owned territory. I suppose a case could be made for Shell due to Malampaya's proximity but, given the potential size of the resource and investment, the reality will probably be two or three companies but I'm convinced one will be a Chinese state owned player.|
Forum Energy share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange