Ft Fbt Discussion Threads

[mcsean2164] 09/1/2019 21:47

_m_k

My uneducated take is that Avid were allowing 3rd party developers to sell into their eco-system. Lots of products do this e.g. atlassian/ National Instruments/ Azure marketplace.

However, FBT is also selling a more or less complete editing solution that is only getting stronger and Avid may have noticed. As the market leader having third parties developing for their platform but not if they are losing customers to the third party. If FBT actually succeeds, it will be interesting to see how the blackbird workflow develops/ disappears.

[_m_k] 09/1/2019 20:18

I had thought that as we grow our capabilities avid would become a competitor

There may be some Avid users for which that tool-set is over-specified and Forbidden's may be more appropriate, and don't forget if remote editing is the be-all then both product sets offer that. So in some cases there is an overlap. If Avid didn't think Forbidden's platform (or similar) wasn't a competitor they would not have developed their own remote editing capability.

On the other hand, if Forbidden didn't think the two products could complement one another then they wouldn't have built workflows that integrate the two.

So perhaps a bit of six to one and half a dozen to the other !

[nickb] 09/1/2019 19:11

Good we are more integrated onto Amazon AWS as they are a big player for Cloud Media Services.

Wonder if FBT will embrace the Google Cloud Platform as they are also chasing the media industry for Cloud services.

[chriscallen] 09/1/2019 13:57

FBT already have 2 Microsoft Azure based clients. There was no ability to use AWS until now as it says " Blackbird Edge server is now available for deployment using a CloudFormations template in 5 AWS regions" i.e. it was not available before.

So the good news is that it can now be used on both Azure and CloudFormations and gain FBT work from both sources.

[mcsean2164] 09/1/2019 13:33

I'd take 16p today if it was on the table.

Interesting post cab1. Promoting aws and not Microsoft Azure. They are direct competitors. Maybe Microsoft stand didn't work out as well as expected?

[nickb] 09/1/2019 13:26

Mcsean
Assuming we are heading for success there is no reason why you can’t drop out at 16p if you so wish.

[cabi1] 09/1/2019 13:25

More activity in the video space. hxxps://advanced-television.com/2019/01/09/rtl-buys-yospace-for-e33m/

[paulcon1] 09/1/2019 12:34

Latest FBT tweet:

Check out the latest Blackbird product news direct from our Product Manager, Huw Dymond, here:



#videoproduction #cloudvideo

[paulcon1] 09/1/2019 12:00

McSean

Agree with all points in your last post especially 'the cloud' comment..

Almost impossible to put a price on the tech as its unproven.

Time is a factor though and I believe FBT need to start succeeding or they may miss out on a golden opportunity

Lets hope it reaches 16p soon and we can reopen this debate..

GLM

[mcsean2164] 09/1/2019 11:42

Paul,

FBT's USP is the blackbird patent AFAIK. It's hard to quantify how useful blackbird is as fbt deals in hyperbole and not facts. Maybe you are correct though, if a major values fbt, why not £160 million?

Cc,

True, the bidder might be afraid of another bidder and go in high but still, even a low ball bid might be better as majors might think the opposition doesn't value it that highly.

NickB,

I'm stupified, I know blackbird can work with avid but I had thought that as we grow our capabilities avid would become a competitor. Just shows how much I know!

What is blackbird's market and who are it's competitors?

Finally, can I just say that 'the cloud', isn't that remarkable, it's a computer connected to the internet. Fbt have done nice stuff with java script but if avid wanted to be in the cloud I see no barrier to entry. In fact, it would be easier for the as fbt have done it

[nickb] 09/1/2019 10:56

Mcsean
You should not be looking at Avid as comparison.

Plus we are not trying to displace Avid and we won’t in the Pro Editing market Avid media composer is a religion in TV film editing from a certain level up.
We can be complementary and also address different needs.
Different tools.

We have to aim for high levels of video market adoption of our technology otherwise we may fail.
Adoption will be the snow ball effect.

So big success or a fail I’m not convinced there is a middle ground

All imho

[chriscallen] 09/1/2019 09:58

Avid has been the market leader but in a non Cloud market. All that is now under threat from the Cloud which offers large cost savings, improved control of the product, faster delivery times etc. The one thing the Cloud needs is a fast, dependable system for collection and delivery of product. There is at present nothing that rivals Blackbird in doing this.

The one thing stopping adoption of Blackbird in my view is its lack of visibility with major users, which IM is tackling with his new team. Existing users seem very happy with the performance and cost savings so price is obviously not an issue for them. The Cloud and its uses will transform every aspect of life all over the world in the next 10 years, just as the PC and mobile phones have done in much smaller ways before, and FBT can be at the forefront in this.

Of the major players in the Cloud FBT has known links with Microsoft and Amazon and presumably IM will be working on the other major corporations too. If I were the CEO of one of these players would I want one of my main competitors getting control of FBT? I might not be excluded by them but new product developments could easily be made available earlier and be designed to be more compatible with their business model. This all makes for very interesting times for FBT shareholders to live in but isn't that an ancient Chinese curse?

[mcsean2164] 09/1/2019 09:32

OK, I would say that unless there is a seismic shift the market will not support a price of 33p for FBT as a B2B proposition.

Avid as we know is the market leader specialising in digital non-linear editing systems, management and distribution services.

If we were to displace Avid and become the dominant market leader with a market cap of £160 million, that would represent a share price of about 56p.

Personally, I would take 33p today rather than hang around for the next 10 yeas in the hope that Blackbird overtakes Avid.

In fact, I would probably take 16p....

[paulcon1] 09/1/2019 09:30

McSean

I'm looking at this, like yourself, from the purchasers point of view.

How much would I pay for the FBT tech and what is my return and is that return greater than I'm achieving at present. Can I compete in this space with a similar product etc etc

The FBT product is unique and has many uses (imho) in Live Sports, AI, Security, Education, Health and Social Media but it has no long-term, financial, cost saving and revenue generating history for any potential buyer to consider.
Another thing to consider is timescale, for both parties.

FBT is almost a 20 year start up company at this point.

42-45p (£160m)and both parties get a return

But remember I am full of sxxx


GLM and IMHO

[nickb] 09/1/2019 08:45

Certainly not.

We can build a business going forward with the technology and product we have perfected and importantly we are finally entering a Cloud era for video production and consumption.

Bad time to sell after 20 years of development just as the market is taking off.

[mcsean2164] 09/1/2019 08:22

The question was why would a bidder bid more than 33p? SSB suggested it would be higher. Put it this way, NickB would you not accept 33p?

[nickb] 09/1/2019 07:31

Many of us shareholders are not in it for a 16p exit price.

[nickb] 08/1/2019 22:06

SSB is correct it will be way higher.
£’s not pence.

Imho and not investment advice!

[paulcon1] 08/1/2019 21:12

McSean

I'm not here for 16p (barely break even) although it is difficult to put a price on the company due to dreadful sales performance in comparison to the wide ranging and almost limitless capabilities of the tech.

Maybe a tech industry expert could post a view!

£1.00 (£400m) seems steep to me as another company could create a similar product or video editing may simply take an alternative route than in the cloud.

I seem to recall SS quoting £1b (£2.50 per Share) at some point but that seems a long time ago now and maybe tech boom era.

GLM

[chriscallen] 08/1/2019 20:45

Because no buyer will want less than 76% and ideally 90%+ so that he can use the Companies Acts to force small shareholders to sell. There will be SS and many others who won't sell at 16p (me for one) so unless a big offer was on the table it would just be a waste of professional fees.

As an aside Hallmark is a new name to me:
Blackbird @forbiddentech
4 hours ago

Blackbird, our lightning-fast #cloudvideo editing platform, is used in the post-production of 100s of popular TV shows each year. One such show is Candace Cameron Bure's "Christmas Across America" which aired in December on @hallmarkchannel in the US.

The whole Group was turning over US$4Bn in 2016

[mcsean2164] 08/1/2019 20:11

SSB,

If there was a buyer, why would the bid be way higher? I for one would accept 16p, so why would it have to be way higher if there was only one bidder?

[sideshowbull] 08/1/2019 19:36

If there is a buyer/bid it will be way way higher than any of your thoughts. Way higher

May not come ever.

BWTFDIK

sideshow.

[chriscallen] 08/1/2019 18:48

The average P/E in this sector has been well over 20 and in some cases as high as 200. So at 33p a share that implies at the lower end future expected earnings of 1.65p a share or a net profit of £4.8M. To get £4.8M at an 85% margin and costs of say £6M would require sales in the order of £12.5M - £15M, a big ask but not now complete moonshine given what IM has said. The obvious question is "if sales can increase that much in a year what can they do with a team that is experienced and used to winning new business and a product that has real credibility with users?" If they look like achieving big sales two things will happen: firstly, net profit will soar as the cost base has been already largely covered and, secondly, the P/E could soar to even the 30s. A doubling of annual sales in 2020 could see net profits lifted to somewhere around £15M or 5p a share. On a P/E in excess of 20 that would imply well over £1 a share.

So I will wait to see what IM says about prospects before selling out to an opportunistic bid.

[nickb] 08/1/2019 17:59

Mcsean
Why do you think Avid has such a low market cap?