|A GOOD YEAR for the Forecasters:?: Is 2003 again too optimistic?
"Of the 67 equity market clairvoyants polled, only three expected the Dow to close below its 2002 closing price. Only three expected a lower S&P close. Only three expected a lower NASDAQ close. As an average, the group expected the Dow to be up 18.3% in 2003, the S&P up 19.2% and the NASDAQ up a respectable 27.5%. You know, the stuff of which baby boomer dreams are made. When asked to pick their favorite stock sector, only one picked basic materials and only one picked energy. Of course the bulk of the remaining pundits were snuggled safe and warm in health care, tech and financials.
Of the 62 participants who chose to throw darts at the economy, only 2 expected real GDP to fall below 2% (the average was 3.2%). Only two of these folks thought corporate earnings would actually decline in 2003, although according to the Commerce Department 3Q GDP and prior period revisions report a month or so back, that is exactly what has happened over the last three quarters in a row. The average guess for 2003 operating earnings increase was 9.7%. As you know, those who veer far from the consensus social norms of society are either criminals or labeled as crazy. Those on Wall Street who veer far from the consensus have a very good chance of ultimately being labeled unemployed."
|Like Specto, It was my 3rd year as a full time trader, and the best yet.
Rather than talk percentages I think in terms of......
I learnt to day trade the DOW.... WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE YEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAA.
A dream ( and sometimes a nightmare ) come true.
bearing in mind that anything can happen|
|Best year of my three as a full-time trader; finally turned around my poor little ISA too, funded in March 2000 and until a few months ago, never once in profit. Still, considering it once held IBI (now IZO) at over £10, BT.A for the bounce off £10, RED at £1+ (which was down 90% from highs; RED's now 0.55p) and many others, it did well just to stay in existence.
Good luck to everyone in 03.|
|I managed a 25% gain, ignoring dividends, which I'm quite happy with given that I'm almost entirely long. I do dabble with shorts on spread bets or CFDs(GNI) but I'm still not entirely at ease with it.
This year has started well, a couple of percent up already but I've a feeling there could be a another hefty drop coming up soon to complete the old footsie head and shoulders. I'm also a bit over exposed to retailers (mainly New Look, Hamleys) , which is not the flavour of the month, but we will see.|
|Very droll. Foresight is definitely more useful than hindsight. You evidently want to get this investing stuff over and done with as soon as possible.|
|dodddy - yes to property! Looking to cash in some up here over the coming months.
BTW - I'm always moaning I'm losing trading money, but I should point out my property income was over twice my trading losses and, of course, their value has gone up far more, i.e. little of my overall "wealth" has been in trading/investing accounts!! ;-)))
Haven't calculated everything, but would expect all in to have seen +/-20% improvement in 2002.|
big al 39
|Put 83% on trading pot, this 83% by the way, was removed at the end of year, suggest it is a good idea to all, you then have to put the cash back in, which makes a difference, taking profit to me is only when i remove the money, not close the deal (hope you understand, will explain one day when i have more time).
|very good year would have been better but i have been selling a lot of property which took up a lot of time. but cant complain as very big profits on the properties :)|
|Good year with property and option trading.
Was it good for you too ??|
mail me your email
and I'll send you a file of ftse closing prices.|
|I am an active investor rather than a trader, so was both disappointed and satisfied with a 5% gain on the year. Performance snagged on a couple of engineering stocks outside my usual VALUE criteria - hopefully learnt the lesson of staying true to my chosen investment format. Opened a CMC spreadbetting account in order to go short, but so far have only used it for a badly timed bull foray in Gold - got suckered out in the final November pull-back when ZAK (chartist) suddenly retracted on his bullish posture!! As a convinced contrarian I am now mildly bullish, so wouldn't be at all surprised not to be using that shorting tool for yet another year.
Incidentally, as per my post yesterday, can anyone help with the end month FTSE or All Share for Dec'02 - Dec'03. Need to chart my portfolio....|
|very impressive, Mr.W.
Have you increased the size of the pot? Or banked the profits?|
|up approximately 330% on entire pot this year solely trading dow and s&p futures, only 10% of trades were shorts, which helped out a little i guess!
now weres my bucks fizz?
it should read only 10% of trades were longs
too much bucks fizz lol|
|Did badly earlier in the year due to Dow - stopped that!
Did quite well mid year and was well chuffed.
Did badly this past quarter for a variety of reasons, the most obvious indiscipline and lack of attention at critical times. Failure to use a provider that means I can't put in a stop didn't help, but can't blame that as shouldn't have been trading!
Overall, down a few k, but have learnt a helluva lot and with consistent discipline should do better. That's the future objective.
Will have taken 2 weeks off by the time next week comes and feeling much better and more focused. Will see how it lasts in the New Year.|
big al 39
|Best year ever, thanks to GOLD|
|Done really well June/August mainly day trading with big £ pp for a couple of points here and there. Since then day job has severely restricted my trading. Looking for positions to run for a week or so and not doing so well.
Introduction of very tight internet policy at work has also severely restricted access to information.
Cant see it changing in 2003|
|Made a k a week last qtr - tgt set and met.
Can't think of a week I was down.
Still looking to do better.|
|Last year I dribbled away capital on good positions which almost always never worked out (but kept to stoplosses), lost until April and then bang, everything went right for the next 6 months, got up to triple my original capital at the start of the year by Octish, withdrew 2/3 and started again driblling capital on good positions etc etc :-)
I wouldn't mind the same again :-)
BTW I go wasted both times I went for a small collection of longs.|
|Lend me a fiver will ya?
About £40k down about 20k i should have prevented with hard stop loss - the rest i would make the same mistake again - right calls on the fundamentals however the MMs and others forced them the other way
I have changed strategy. Too many of the great and good have been proved to be liars/thieves/stunningly inept.
I know I can sleep safely in my bed with the marvellous FSA protecting me from market manipulation. I wonder what their rose tinted specs make of the prices each morning as they are set to catch the unwary in the thin market or the whole market is moved to put options above water.
Has anyone seen an FSA enquiry into MONI, IIG, NVM for example? Were the price movements before the announcements due to extreme good luck or........
Don't swim against the tide no matter how right you may be, wait for slack water
If it looks to good to be true it probably is
If you don't understand why something is so profitable it probably isn't
As tax charges tend to avoid the niceties of accountancy - low tax charges need detailed explanation
Cash flow is king
If you lose money trading shares, why do you think trading CFDs or options using the same rules will give a different result
feeling a bit jaundiced this morning|
|I lost a bundle "investing" in some small caps. lost another big wedge shorting the dow too early.
made it back and more on UK shorts.
I think I'll stick to that from now on };>
|A good year for me. I've yet to sit down and pull together all the relevant numbers.. the pitiful interest gained on cash.. the losses on what few shareholdings I clung to too long.. the nice gains on spreadbetting UK stocks downwards. But that last category I know has made it a successful year overall for me.
How was it for you?
2000..., 2001..., 2002,2003...|
|Fifa All Star team
Oliver Kahn (Germany)
Rustu Recber (Turkey)
Roberto Carlos (Brazil)
Sol Campbell (England)
Fernando Hierro (Spain)
Hong Myung-Bo (South Korea)
Alpay Ozalan (Turkey)
Michael Ballack (Germany)
Claudio Reyna (USA)
Yoo Sang-Chul (South Korea)
El Hadji Diouf (Senegal)
Hasan Sas (Turkey)
Miroslav Klose (Germany)
I find it Hard to believe Alpay made this fantasy team having been sent off for a professional foul and obiviously suspended for the next game . Doesn't really say much for the rest whom played every game without being booked or sent off .
So much for the fair play aspect .
|Up to and including the Quarter Finals, South Korea have had five goals against them disallowed.
Is this a record?