Firstgroup Share Discussion Threads

[sawadee3] 12/4/2014 12:06

Also Sanks, Sheila says load up with GKP while under a quid ;-)

[sawadee3] 12/4/2014 12:02

How many years have you been saying 9p Sanks? I like your persistence though :-)

Sheila will come running back to the bulls once we've all loaded up though, so you've only got her little more time ;-)

Happy days chaps :-)

[sanks] 11/4/2014 11:18

Its even cheaper at 9p...Sheila told me last night

[sanks] 08/4/2014 10:22

My bird Sheila has this one going to 9p
She said the debt is unmanageable, hence its a no brainer towards that 5p-9p area

Hope this helps the normal ones and the thick ones
Sanksalot

[joshuam] 07/4/2014 23:24

Will be shorted further

[robertfaulkner] 07/4/2014 18:06

Right back where we started in Jan, Ho Hum

(share price)

[miata] 07/4/2014 12:09

Liberum.

Three trade unions are planning to seek a judicial review to halt the East Coast rail franchise competition. The unions' objective may well be to delay the tender process (currently due for award in October 2014) so that it cannot be awarded before the election, in the hope of a Labour Party win and a resultant change in rail policy that is more favourable to their views.

Despite these risks and a moderately disappointing trading update last week we remain positive on FirstGroup (BUY, TP 155p). We believe there will be value in forthcoming rail franchise awards and that FirstGroup is the best positioned to benefit having been shortlisted for five of the seven franchises due to be awarded this year, including the three most valuable.

[joshuam] 04/4/2014 11:16

Sell sell sell

[miata] 04/4/2014 09:13

Date Company Name EPIC Broker Recommendation Current Price Price when issued Old target price New target price

04 Apr 2014 FirstGroup PLC FGP Deutsche Bank Hold 132.65 134.50 128.00 125.00

[slaterlpj] 03/4/2014 09:43

Not looking good again today.

[miata] 02/4/2014 23:03

I think it unlikely, there would be calls for heads to roll.

[slaterlpj] 02/4/2014 20:59

What do you think of merrill lynch's suggestion of another potential cash call?

[miata] 02/4/2014 20:39

The ship has been affected by the weather.

Firstgroup said operating profits for the year would be £14m lower than expected due to recent severe weather conditions, especially in the US which affected its First Student and Greyhound operations.

[slaterlpj] 02/4/2014 18:58

Yup, that was when merril issued a "downgrade".

Is the market being manipulated in the short term, or should we all jump ship?

[robertfaulkner] 02/4/2014 18:11

I make it down 9p in 2 days from close 31st at 146p to close today at 137p

From about the 24th March it was a nice gentle rise in closing price, every day until opening yesterday

[jackdon] 02/4/2014 17:17

Anybody using the expression "fallen by -0.32%" is worthy of being completely ignored.

[miata] 02/4/2014 16:13

More technical (rubbish?) stuff from British Bulls:
FIRSTGROUP SELL
Last Pattern:BEARISH ONE BLACK CROW
Last Close:139.0000 Change:-6.9000 Percent change-4.73% 6 mo.Rating2★£100⇨117.8512 mo.Rating1★£100⇨126.4024 mo.Rating1★£100⇨199.47

Signal Update Our system's recommendation today is to SELL.
The BEARISH ONE BLACK CROW pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed the confirmation level which was at 141.7000, and our valid average selling price stands now at 141.5000. The previous BUY recommendation was issued on 3/26/2014, 6 days ago, when the stock price was 141.9500. Since then FGP.L has fallen by -0.32%.

Market Outlook The market ran out of steam and the traders are now more in agreement about the bearishness. The evidence is strong enough to prompt the closing of long positions. The bearish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a SELL signal is generated. You still have time to follow the signal and then you may start checking other securities for a bullish bet.

[slaterlpj] 02/4/2014 10:19

Is this kind of stuff a self-fulfilling prophecy?

hxxp://www.barchart.com/opinions/stocks/FGP.LS&view=detailed

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold Weakest
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy Weak

Long Term Indicators Average: 67% Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 2,735,456

Overall Average: 16% Buy

Price 139.000
Support 133.200
Pivot Point 140.400
Resistance 147.600

[slaterlpj] 02/4/2014 09:51

I agree Robert.
Is that trading statement so bad? It doesn't seem so bad, not bad enough for Merril to downgrade anyway. But it could mean there's no final divi. I wouldn't be surprised if it were cancelled again, and that might well be a good thing for the share price I don't think they're likely to do another cash call. If so, I think the share price would have fallen off a cliff today.

Guess we'll know more with the preliminary results due to be announced on 21 May 2014.

[robertfaulkner] 02/4/2014 07:34

7am trading report seems OK but the market always seems to 'sell on the news'(whatever it is) the only hope, it happened yesterday

I now need a 10p rise, before Ap 5th, to get my profit and sell, before tax year end.

Some hope

[slaterlpj] 01/4/2014 20:52

So where's Sanks? He should be here telling us all that 9p is on the way.

[slaterlpj] 01/4/2014 15:10

FirstGroup shares jolted by Merrill downgrade
Bank's analysts point to difficult outlook and prospect of a possible cash call

FirstGroup has gone into reverse after a negative note on the transport group.

Its shares are down 7p or nearly 5% at 138.9p after Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its rating and price target on the train and bus group, citing poor trading and the prospect of a cash call. The bank said:

We are downgrading FirstGroup shares to neutral [from buy] with a revised price objective of 150p [from 155p]. There are a number of reasons for this downgrade:

1. Tomorrow's pre-close results are likely to show a difficult fourth quarter; one where bad weather and swings in the dollar/pound exchange rate have likely pressured FirstGroup's profit and loss.

2. The risks of the Thameslink franchise award are poised to the downside; if FirstGroup wins, in our view it is likely to add little; if they lose (which we believe to be more likely), it potentially sweeps around £60mn (of restricted cash) off the cash flow statement (as First Capital Connect would end this September). This could re-awaken concerns of FirstGroup's negative free cash flow profile and, even, talk of a medium-term rights' issue risk.

Despite the short-term challenges facing FirstGroup, our core arguments on FirstGroup's longer-term prospects remain positive. In particular, we have confidence on a UK bus turnaround and interest deleveraging. On the latter point, we still believe there is the significant scope to lower the company's net interest costs (around £155mn on around £1.7bn of adjusted net debt) i.e, the company has around £100mn of net profit and with a more normalised (industry average) interest expense line, FirstGroup would begin to look particularly inexpensive on an earnings basis.

[barlick] 01/4/2014 11:24

Hope todays drop is not some people knowing what's coming tomorrow before we do!!

[robertfaulkner] 01/4/2014 08:05

Thanks, I was hoping for a quick 3p increase this morning, so I could sell out FGP before the April 6th tax year end, to crystallise a profit