|it is definitely a tip, 16 trades since midday, no trade today over £7k in value. the upside comes from having a wider following when good news is released, further pension fund wins, currency upgrades for e.g.|
|Almost 6% up today, at one point hit 52p, but I can't find any news to explain it. Not a fresh Simon Thompson tip, no RNS... weird. Anybody got a clue?|
|However I am also mindful that we don't blind one another in this thread - we also need to think of the drawbacks so an opposing view would be very welcomed.|
|Feel like FPO is in a sweet spot at the moment & markets are finally waking up to this.
86% of profits is from assets they own, I believe all are in Poland or Romania? SO the price of these assets & profits are going up due to the exchange rates. Pension funds seeing property as a good way to increase their yields and FPO having a successful history in managing these investments.
Ben seeing assets in the UK as a good buy after Brexit.
Lots of different parts of the business but feel they are all in a good market at the moment.
I had a target of circa 55p but might need to up my target!|
|Lots of small trades going through. Feels like another Monday morning tip. rare to see a half penny spread in FPO.|
|interesting win - no mention of this at the AGM, it must have developed since. So it is in addition to the other new mandate of £70m they expect to win from a new name. More good news pending by the sound of things.|
|Nice increase to the shipbuilding fund, Since the march yearend they have increased this fund by 50m gbp and now have headroom for another 50m so 100m increase in aum from just this customer, they should be close to 500m aum by yearend and this asset management business is priced by the market at zero , should be worth at least 10p per share or more if aum keeps growing like this ....|
|Here is the small I.C exert taken from the FPO website.
Investors Chronicle - Anomalously priced fund managers
Simon Thompson summarises: ‘Rated on a discount to spot net asset value, trading on just 8 times forward earnings…, and with significant upgrades highly likely in eight weeks’ time, the investment case is very solid. In the circumstances, I rate First Property’s shares a strong buy…ahead of November’s interim results and my initial target price is 56p, coinciding with the all-time high dating back to the end of last year. Buy.’|
|oregano - Yes, Simon Thompson (Investors Chronicle) updated on FPO in his online column yesterday maintaining his +ve stance with a BUY reccommendation and 56p TP.|
|JW - also discussed at the AGM, buying properties yielding 6% or gilts yielding 0.5%. Take your pick!
I assume this was tipped yesterday judging by the lunch time volumes and spike. but there appears to be a seller around keeping a lid on it.|
|I have been hearing a lot about Pension Funds being in deficit over the past few months - This must be a growing market for FPO to target - These Pension funds need to generate higher yield before the difference gets too big - FPO have a history of successfully managing & purchasing assets which give a high yield.|
|Yup, it is for a UK pension fund. I don't think the fee structure for pension funds are different by geography, it is that the returns are much higher for directly owned properties. they don't own any direct properties in the UK as they have existing funds with headroom to invest (so are conflicted).
I think the point to takaway is that whilst returns are higher for the direct investments, the larger and more diverse the 3rd party fund management becomes, the more likely the market is to separately value this component. And it would warrant a higher multiple than a property business which is valued against assets.
Albeit I don't think the market is that sophisticated when it comes to £50m mkt cap businesses! either way they are doing well operationally and likely to see upgrades, never a bad thing.|
|oregano - Likewise many thanks for reporting back to us the proceedings from the AGM.
In respect of the potential future £70 million mandate, did Ben Habib give any indication if the mandate would be to invest funds into U.K or Poland / Romanian property market, the difference being we levy substantially far higher fees for the overseas market, than the U.K.|
|Cheers for the update Oregano - Glad to hear things are all in working order.|
|i went along to the AGM, along with 40 others.
The CEO stated that every cent decline in the Euro rate gives them an extra £80k of profit. they used 1.36 last year, currently 1.16. i make that a £1.6m boost to profit, a circa 20% upgrade.
He also stated they will have invested all the ship builders pension fund by the year end. that's another £40m of assets invested.
And they are close to winning mandates and investing another £70m of assets. He said the source of the cash is a well known investor, which would endorse their investment strategy. He described this as a step up for the business. He was very bullish.
So hopefully a bit more newsflow to come on the next few months. The interims will force the analyst to upgrade on currency.|
|Not a lot said at the agm statement things going well and aum ticking up, I wonder if the chat after got some investors in a bullish mood seems to have supported the shares|
|Pardon me - AGM statement Thursday.|
|there is surely going to be a positive trading statement tomorrow. mechanical FX upgrades are a certainty and Ben wants property volatility to invest their funds.|
|I don`t love FPO at the moment as it`s going down.|
|You gotta love FPO, making money whether in recession, currency challenges either home or abroad.|
"If the exchange rate hangs around the current levels, we will be about a million a year better off in sterling terms," he told Proactive.
The time is now ripe to buy UK property, which, with current market volatility and prices under pressure, is a "compelling" opportunity, says Habib.|
|The nav is 43p now off a much higher gbp , income and nav will be much higher with the pound thrashed, These are good value after this puke to 37p , I am sure the market in the uk will throw up some interesting opportunities, ben has proven himself to be an excellent judge of timing the market, he holds no uk assets for the funds own book and has plenty of dry powder to do deals with distressed sellers ...|
|i was surprised to get my stock away JW! I agree with the management quality. As Ben said at the last results, Brexit will provide opportunities.
i owned this through the last credit crunch - i think the shares were 12 - 14p, well sub NAV, it wouldn't surprise me if they get sub NAV again. There is alot of speculative puff in UK commercial property, and i don't really like the long term trends in retail parks.|
|Seems like you timed your sell well Oregano!
I am holding for now - I like the management and see no reason not to doubt them. Sectors will go up and down due to macro environments so is important to diversify your investments in the right companies in each segment.
I agree that property is going to find it hard but I also believe FPO is the best holding for me within this sector.|
|you might be right. but the Zlotty is under pressure also. And UK asset values will fall. The newsflow on property is going to remain negative for some time, so whilst this looks cheap, it could get cheaper as it has been in the past. Much as I like this company, I have bailed.|