Finders Resources Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 27/7/2010 15:16

H,

You are welcome!

I have updated for current Cu price and FOREX and have shown for CY2011-2013.

The link is in this header.
Chip

[chingman] 27/7/2010 14:36

Good interview by Mining Maven here: http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/finders-resources-chris-farmer-talks-to-mining-maven-45409/

"Finders has successfully operated a demonstration plant at Wetar producing 1970 tonnes of copper cathode and the company is now moving into the next phase of production expansion. Add to this the positive Jambi Drilling Results from its Ojolali project, and the Company appears to be moving toward significant value generation for shareholders. "

[hectorp] 27/7/2010 14:19

My one concern (PS) is that if we do have a world or US-Europe depression it could hit metals prices but I know its more complex than that. Wettar is 'de-risked' but is that a known 'risk'.
IF I knew base metal price would be approximately this year's price in 2012 I could convince myself to add . Have been holding for some months.
H.

[hectorp] 27/7/2010 13:59

Chip your detailed estimations ( 12-13 posts back) show that it certainly makes sense to hold this share through 2012!
thanks for your tireless work to bring all these figures up.
Very very useful to me .
H.

[cyprussteve] 26/7/2010 20:45

An excellent and well balanced interview with the MD - I like the way that Finders appear to err on the side of caution, and try to "under promise and over-deliver".
I think we all know that Wetar is a de-risked medium term solid investment, but, with the potential from Ojalali thrown in "for free", there may well be a significant short term upside as well.

[connor23] 26/7/2010 20:13

Great find SS. Patience required here, but the prospects look good.

[chipperfrd] 26/7/2010 18:45

Thanks SS !

[soulsauce] 26/7/2010 18:42

Many thanks SS.

[jonny flame] 26/7/2010 18:34

Thanks for that selfservice I have added it to the header. I like the last paragraph :)

...The feasibility study resulted in life of mine average operating costs of around $1.00 per lb Cu, which is about the global average so around 50% of the worlds copper mines are likely to struggle before us in the event of a commodity price collapse...

....At Ojolali, we have a potential follow-on project which at this moment comprises a mixture of established prospects with resources and the sort of blue sky exploration value from other named prospects in the tenement block which is harder for the market to assess in terms of value....

....We believe that Ojolali has unrealised shareholder value at this stage, particularly compared to other gold projects in Indonesia, and there a number of alternatives available to us to unlock the current or perceived future value....

....To fulfil our objectives we need projects or developments with similar or larger cash flow potential than Wetar. Ojolali may well fit that bill or other pipeline projects which are under assessment....

...Finders, as one of the few emerging copper plays, is poised to become a mid-tier producer and has a clear-cut value proposition based on the potential to deliver free cash flow on annual basis approximately equal to the current market cap.

[selfservice] 26/7/2010 18:01

Chris Farmer interveiw

[chipperfrd] 26/7/2010 04:49

coffeelito,

I was originally expecting the phase 1 expansion to add to earnings in CY2010 - so I had modelled for that. We now have different suggested dates for phase 1 and 2 so I have revised my model to reflect the changed production profile. Hence CY2010 numbers only relate to the limited output from the current pilot plant.

My numbers are only aiming to estimate pure earnings from the Wetar project and therefore contain no value uplift in advance expectation of increased earnings or any book value for the Ojalali project area.
Chip

[coffeelito] 26/7/2010 04:01

Chip, I'm a bit in the dark about what it was that caused you to revise downwards your share price targets, especially for the current year (17p). I'm not challenging you since you seem to know what you're talking about, just asking if you could enlighten me as to what changed? Many thanks.

[chipperfrd] 26/7/2010 03:45

JF,

I am likely to update it frequently so best I can edit it easily. Therefore I have placed it on post#1 here

I intend to continue to use this thread and suggest the above link can just be used as a repository.
Chip

[chipperfrd] 26/7/2010 03:34

Forward earnings estimations - last update 27/7/2010.

These numbers are purely an opinion. Any errors, omissions or incorrect assumptions are purely my own - so DYOR is essential.
Chip
Year ................. - ..... CY2011 ....... CY2012 ....... CY2013
Ore throughput ....... t ..... 330,000 ...... 1,085,500 .... 1,314,000
Grade (avge) ......... % ..... 2.5% ......... 2.5% ......... 2.5%
Recovery ............. % ..... 71.0% ........ 71.0% ........ 71.0%
Copper produced ...... t ..... 5,858 ........ 19,268 ....... 23,324
Copper Price (Avge) .. US$/t . 7,336 ........ 7,703 ........ 8,088
Revenue .............. US$ ... 42,970,702 ... 148,414,945 .. 188,639,429
FOREX (A$/US$) ....... - ..... 0.90 ......... 0.90 ......... 0.90
Revenue .............. A$ .... 47,745,224 ... 164,905,495 .. 209,599,365
Cash Costs/tonne Cu .. US$/t . 2,204 ........ 2204 ......... 2204
Avge Cash Costs ...... A$ .... 14,344,367 ... 47,184,273 ... 57,116,660
G&A .................. A$ .... 1,400,000 .... 1,400,000 .... 1,400,000
Sust CAPEX ........... A$ .... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
Other Costs .......... A$ .... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
EBITDA ............... A$ .... 32,000,858 ... 116,321,222 .. 151,082,705
Depreciation ......... A$ .... 6,000,000 .... 20,000,000 ... 20,000,000
Interest ............. A$ .... 3,037,917 .... 2,188,593 .... 0
EBT .................. A$ .... 22,962,941 ... 94,132,628 ... 131,082,705
Tax Rate ............. % ..... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
Tax payable .......... A$ .... 4,133,329 .... 16,943,873 ... 23,594,887
NPAT (attrib @94%) ... A$ .... 17,699,835 ... 72,557,430 ... 101,038,549
Shares issued (FD) ... - ..... 270,492,534 .. 270,492,534 .. 270,492,534
EPS .................. A$ .... 0.07 ......... 0.27 ......... 0.37
FOREX (£/A$) ......... - ..... 0.584 ........ 0.584 ........ 0.584
EPS .................. p ..... 3.82 ......... 15.67 ........ 21.81
Target share price @ x9 PER ... p ..... 34 ........... 141 .......... 196
Target share price @ x9 PER ... A$c ... 59 ........... 241 .......... 336

Debt ................. A$ .... 56,276,165 ... 0 ............ 0
Financing ............ A$ .... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
Cash ................. A$ .... 116,796 ...... 16,398,061 ... 111,863,105
Debt repayments ...... A$ .... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
Debt at EoY .......... A$ .... 56,276,165 ... 0 ............ 0
Inward investment .... A$ .... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
Net Cash Flow ........ A$ .... 0 ............ 16,281,265 ... 95,465,043
Pot Div as % of FCF .. % ..... 0% ........... 20% .......... 25%
Dividend ? ........... A$ .... 0 ............ 5,573,506 .... 24,844,337
Dividend per share ... A$ .... 0.00 ......... 0.021 ........ 0.092
Divi per share ....... £ ..... 0.000 ........ 0.012 ........ 0.054

Op Cashflow .......... A$ .... 33,400,858 ... 117,721,222 .. 152,482,705
OP CF/share .......... UK(p) . 7.21 ......... 25.42 ........ 32.92
Project Cashflow ..... A$ .... 33,400,858 ... 117,721,222 .. 152,482,705
Project CF/share ..... UK(p) . 7.21 ......... 25.42 ........ 32.92
Company Cashflow ..... A$ .... 32,000,858 ... 116,321,222 .. 151,082,705
Company CF/share ..... UK(p) . 6.91 ......... 25.11 ........ 32.62
Profit (post tax) .... A$ .... 27,867,528 ... 99,377,349 ... 127,487,818
Profit per share ..... UK(p) . 6.02 ......... 21.46 ........ 27.52
Free Cashflow ........ A$ .... 27,867,528 ... 99,377,349 ... 127,487,818
Free CF/share ........ UK(p) . 6.02 ......... 21.46 ........ 27.52

[chipperfrd] 26/7/2010 03:34

Now de-listed from AIM and only listed on the ASX







Post #1 contains my forward estimates which I will update periodically.

[cyprussteve] 25/7/2010 22:02

coffee - don't forget that Chip's figures do not ascribe any value at all to Ojalali, which , although very early days, is beginning to look as if it could add value as a stand alone project.

[coffeelito] 25/7/2010 21:54

thanks chip, that's very impressive .. i see you now have 17p as fair value for 2010 .. is that right ? If so, it's not exactly encouraging for the share price at the moment .. any idea when the 2011 share price target would start to come more into play ?

[jonny flame] 25/7/2010 20:00

Thanks Chip, would you mind if I add this to the header?

If Chip OK's this the header may get a bit cramped so I'll remove some info in order to condense everything. Does this sound OK to the usual bunch of posters on here?

Best regards to everyone.
JF

[soulsauce] 25/7/2010 18:47

chipperfrd many thanks.

[chipperfrd] 25/7/2010 18:21

Steve,

Purely an estimation of earnings from Wetar alone.
Chip

[cyprussteve] 25/7/2010 18:13

Thanks Chip,
Most interesting - I am assuming that this is based on Wetar alone, and does not include anything for Ojolali prospects at this stage ?
Ciao
Steve

[chipperfrd] 25/7/2010 17:17

Someone has asked me to post up my estimations of forward numbers for FND. I have included my assumptions regarding new equity required as part of the phase 1/2 capital raisings. As ever, AIMHO. DYOR is obviously required.
Chip

Year ................. - ..... CY2010 ....... CY2011 ....... CY2012
Ore throughput ....... t ..... 102,400 ...... 330,000 ...... 1,085,500
Grade (avge) ......... % ..... 2.5% ......... 2.5% ......... 2.5%
Recovery ............. % ..... 71.0% ........ 71.0% ........ 71.0%
Copper produced ...... t ..... 1,816 ........ 5,858 ........ 19,268
Copper Price (Avge) .. US$/t . 7,215 ........ 6,987 ........ 6,987
Revenue .............. US$ ... 13,102,942 ... 40,924,478 ... 134,616,730
FOREX (A$/US$) ....... - ..... 0.87 ......... 0.85 ......... 0.85
Revenue .............. A$ .... 15,079,482 ... 48,259,998 ... 158,746,144
Cash Costs/tonne Cu .. US$/t . 2204 ......... 2204 ......... 2204
Avge Cash Costs ...... A$ .... 4,616,595 .... 15,223,974 ... 50,077,648
G&A .................. A$ .... 1,400,000 .... 1,400,000 .... 1,400,000
Sust CAPEX ........... A$ .... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
Other Costs .......... A$ .... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
EBITDA ............... A$ .... 9,062,887 .... 31,636,024 ... 107,268,496
Depreciation ......... A$ .... 0 ............ 6,000,000 .... 20,000,000
Interest ............. A$ .... 0 ............ 3,042,930 .... 2,330,651
EBT .................. A$ .... 9,062,887 .... 22,593,094 .... 84,937,845
Tax Rate ............. % ..... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
Tax payable .......... A$ .... 796,606 ...... 4,066,757 .... 15,288,812
NPAT (attrib @94%) ... A$ .... 7,770,304 .... 17,414,757 ... 65,470,091
Shares issued (FD) ... - ..... 223,762,534 .. 270,492,534 .. 270,492,534
EPS .................. A$ .... 0.03 ......... 0.06 ......... 0.24
FOREX (£/A$) ......... - ..... 0.555 ........ 0.555 ........ 0.555
EPS .................. p ..... 1.87 ......... 3.57 ......... 13.43
Target share price @ x9 PER ... p ..... 17 ........... 32 ........... 121
Target share price @ x9 PER ... A$c ... 30 ........... 58 ........... 218

Debt ................. A$ .... 0 ............ 56,561,243 ... 0
Financing ............ A$ .... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
Cash ................. A$ .... 484,253 ...... 484,253 ...... 9,393,101
Debt repayments ...... A$ .... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
Debt at EoY .......... A$ .... 0 ............ 56,561,243 ... 0
Inward investment .... A$ .... 0 ............ 0 ............ 0
Net Cash Flow ........ A$ .... 1,679,960 .... 0 ............ 8,908,847
Pot Div as % of FCF .. % ..... 0% ........... 0% ........... 20%
Dividend ? ........... A$ .... 0 ............ 0 ............ 5,513,853
Dividend per share ... A$ .... 0.000 ........ 0.000 ........ 0.020
Divi per share ....... £ ..... 0.000 ........ 0.000 ........ 0.011

Op Cashflow .......... A$ .... 10,462,887 ... 33,036,024 .. 108,668,496
OP CF/share .......... UK(p) . 2.52 ......... 6.78 ......... 22.30
Project Cashflow ..... A$ .... 10,462,887 ... 33,036,024 .. 108,668,496
Project CF/share ..... UK(p) . 2.52 ......... 6.78 ......... 22.30
Company Cashflow ..... A$ .... 9,062,887 .... 31,636,024 ... 107,268,496
Company CF/share ..... UK(p) . 2.18 ......... 6.49 ......... 22.01
Profit (post tax) .... A$ .... 8,266,281 .... 27,569,267 ... 91,979,684
Profit per share ..... UK(p) . 1.99 ......... 5.66 ......... 18.87
Free Cashflow ........ A$ .... 8,266,281 .... 27,569,267 ... 91,979,684
Free CF/share ........ UK(p) . 1.99 ......... 5.66 ......... 18.87

All subject to change of course. I have already needed to make fairly drastic alterations due to the phase 1/2 slippage compared to earlier advice.
Chip

[coffeelito] 23/7/2010 14:31

Foster Stockbroking, its June research note on Finders, put a target price of more than twice the current one. It did however assume three equity raisings over the next 18 months and I'm wondering if anyone has any idea how much money will need to be raised via equity ?

[soulsauce] 23/7/2010 09:28

Good old MMS, opened the spread right up again - jeeze!! Glad I held off the buying yesterday.