|The scheme, including expected timetable, was published yesterday:
|Does anyone know about the timescale of the offer.?
In other words, if we hang on, when do we get paid by Polymer Group?|
|Sorry, BB80, I cashed out at 102.5p the other day. It looks a done deal to me.|
|no news from Fiberweb or Blackstone, all quiet here too, and i seem to be stuck in a monolog, so not much more point asking questions here - has everybody else cashed in? i am still hoping to get a fair price, somehow, but despite some reasons for optimism, i know it could go either way.
Petropar paid 229m (see below) for a much smaller chunk of the business
than blackstone wants to take for 185m.
the remaiinder of Fiberweb that Blackstone wants has stronger sales, margins and much better and real growth prospects than the part Petropar paid for (the lion's share of fiberweb's hygiene business only) almost 2 years ago.
thanks to those of you that helped with my questions and tried to follow my impartial (?!) arguments, and as usual, do your own sums and research.
all the best with your investments - and never forget, it's only money ;)
" the enterprise value of the transaction is approximately £229 million."
remember Fiberweb also have a lot of cash in the bank now too, so Blackstone's offer is actually 10-20m even lower than 183m!|
|does anybody understand cfd trading?
today's rns says there were two more long cfd bets increased again yesterday, both now covering well over 2m shares each, with "price per unit" of 102.5p and 102.65 respectively.
does the share price have to go back above Blackstone's 102p offer for these cfd trades to show a profit?|
|thank you sharw.
so tomorrow, they can hopefully stop confusing everybody with the 103.2p nonsense.
so ... the Blackstone offer, as of 16:30 today, is worth exactly 102p per share (~30% below what Petropar paid).|
|The dividend will be paid on 1/11 regardless of the progress of the scheme.|
|dear sharw and paul, does everybody with shares at the close today (tomorrow is xd day) get the 1.2p dividend even if they sell tomorrow or do they now need to hold their shares to the bitter end and sell only to PGI in order to get their dividend? silly question maybe, but i am genuinely confused!
holders must be hoping for a white knight... even somebody that will pay the same as what Petropar paid in 2011, 229m (130p), for a much smaller and dull part of the Fiberweb business would be better than this 183m nonsense (102p), for a remaining business 50% bigger than what Petropar bought, that now also has millions of pounds in the bank and boasting much better prospects.
but time is not on our side as Blackstone keeps mopping up shares on the cheap and i am starting to think the only chance now is if our shareholders decide to reject the board's easy-way-out recommendation, but that might mean an immediate 20p drop if Blackstone refuse to improve their bid.
maybe those big, long cfd play's announced on RNS (Henderson's look like they are genuinely hedging an existing short position but the others, as far as i can make out, look like they are betting on the price going significantly above the current 102p offer) can give some clues, or at least some blind hope! that and the buyer at 103.25p yesterday.|
|Possible typing error in RNS. Reports trade on Friday at 121p?
Old Mutual PLC Form 8.3 - Fiberweb Plc
Date : 23/09/2013 @ 15:25
RNS Number : 6735O
Sale -204,345 121p|
|Date : 23/09/2013 @ 14:07
RNS Number : 6566O
Cheyne Capital Management (UK) LLP
23 September 2013
Derivatives (other than options): CFD 1,791,671 1.03%
CFD Increasing a long position 1,280,000 102.80p|
|sharw - I see, thank you.
or, it could be that whoever is paying 103.25p may feel that Balckstone will have to up their offer to a realistic level eg based on the ~200p, Avgol would have paid (100p/share offer with over 100p/share of Fiberweb debts they would have inherited on top at that time) when Fiberweb was in a dangerous mess a few years ago.
i am also staring to feel that, like several people here that expressed a view, a third party bid is looking less likely by the day, but i cannot understand it. Petropar paid 229m for 40%, they could easily have the remaining, more exciting 60% too for a bargain 229m (and don't forget the 10-20m cash apparently in the bank) and even such a bargain for Petropar would come to 130p/share for share holders, who surely would accept that in a vote.|
|Date : 23/09/2013 @ 12:42
RNS Number : 6277O
Lemanik Asset Management S.A.
Stock : Fiberweb (FWEB)
Derivatives (other than options): 2,080,000 1.20%
CFD Increasing long 100,000 102.50p|
|bearbully80 - a lot more detail will be revealed in the scheme document when it is published. However, the board's reasons for recommending are already set out in detail in para 5 of the 17/9 announcement. The fact that it is a recommendation means they suggest you vote in favour of the scheme.
With regard to a possible third party I am not sure of the exact rules but they have had since 20/8 to show their hand so it is now unlikely although the purchases at 103.25 that you mention suggest that some people take a different view. Normally in a bid you would expect this to trade 1p or so below the offer (103.2p) due to the time factor.|
|sharw - would Fiberweb not have been expected to make some announcements yet about how to vote or to justify their positive recommendation and stance on Blackstone's 102p offer and, most importantly, to disclose interest from from any other parties yet if there have been any other inquiries?
royaloak - somebody was paying 103.25p this morning, more than PGI's 102p (even when you include our 1.2p dividend), so those cfds might already be in the money. if they calculated a fair price for Fiberweb based on the board's statement's (for example, in nov 2011 - "our mid-term target for profit margins is 8-10% after the disposal of Hygiene", and the likely looking 310m sales in 2013 based on the interims and well-documented improving USA markets) that the board have consistently since then said they are confident of achieving, which gives more or less 20m-35m profit this year or in 2014 which gives a fair valuation of 130p-180p even with very low PERs. it could also make one scratch one's head as to why the recommend a bid of 30%-60% less than that.
by the looks of it buyers are still struggling to find shares to buy and according to yahoo! finance
there have been only 22m FWEB shares traded since the initial announcement on 20 August. if that is correct, Balckstone's brokers need to pull their finger out and get buying but I, personally, don't see too many more holders letting their shares go for 103.25p - what's worse, imagine how those who sold at 94p, after the initial shake-out, feel today, and if the price goes up 10-50% more. again, from the same yahoo! page, it seems Balckstone may have picked up half those 22m shares as low as 95p! they will make whatever happens - that goes without saying.
still, I came across nothing new over the weekend confirming any other bidders are chomping at the bit, but I am still holding on for either a much improved offer by Blackstone to get closer to the real value or a competing bid that offers at least the equivalent of what Petropar paid ~130p, and even then most cynics would concede that Petropar bought the less attractive part of the business, especially considering where we appear to be now in the economic cycle.
paul - i hope it is clear that the information you credit me for re the irrevocable 35% not really being irrevocable at all if a higher bid comes along is just my own interpretation of appendiz b - i am by no means certain i understand that part of the document - does anybody else?|
I have often bought takeover deals where I can make a little bit in a few weeks, especially now with interest rates so low, however I was surprised how the price moved up, so agree it's a home for their money with the outsde chance there will be a competitor. I have closed my cfd position, as no benefit with holding costs, but kept my shares. However that CFD holding you mentioned looks interesting, if I had have seen that I would have held them a little longer.
Best of luck.|
|royaloak - does this sound familiar? they seem to have caught on to your technique! does that cfd news just on rns mean then that these gentlemen also are expecting Blackstone must increase its bid above 102.5p?
what would such a cfd deal (long on 1.9m shares at a strike price of 102.5p) cost and what can they make if, for instance, the price goes to 127p, like Petropar paid when they bought most of Fiberwb's Hygiene business? bet it's quite a pretty penny, but I hope they make it because then we would get a a more realistic price then too.|
|CFD - bet or hedge?
RNS Number 4375O13
Lemanik Asset Management S.A.
(2) Derivatives (other than options): 1,980,000 1.14%
CFD 250,000 Increasing long 102.50p|
|sharw, then maybe jeffian is actually right; unless there is a competing bid, which we would probably have to see this week or it will not have any chance of success with Blackstone probably mopping up all the shares it can at 103p and below, this is looking increasingly like a done deal.
at a total guess, Blackstone may have already gobbled 15% of the shares by now. they also have irrevocable rights on 35% more of the shares, as long as a bigger bid does not come along.
if there is no competing bid, which looks like increasingly unlikely, Blackstone only need another 25% of the shares' owners to vote for their 102p bid, and also probably just a couple of hundred small shareholders, or much less if what you say about nominees is in effect, which drastically reduces the power of the little shareholder.
an interesting question people may want to ask themselves is: if somebody offered Blackstone 130p for each of their Fiberweb shares they just bought, would they sell? Evan at an immediate 30% profit, I bet they would not.
and neither would I at below a fair price as long as I am not forced to!!|
|bearbully80 - in theory, yes lots of people with one share each could influence. However, these have to be in your own name (not nominee) and so the dealing cost would completely outweigh any benefit. AFAIK most nominees are pooled and so 'Brokers Holdings PLC' will appear as the shareholder with one vote in that section even though it represents dozens or even hundreds of different individuals.|
|sharw, since 50% of all holders have to vote yes for Blackstone to be able to pull off this bargain-of-the-century at 102p (please confirm that I understood right), it may be worth people holding out for a fair price for their Fiberweb shares to buy a share each for the wife and kids, and the Sunday cricket and football team members, at 103p each; that's a lot of votes for under 50 pounds. LOL, just kidding. It would probably not be considered very ethical (but actually, I don't really see why not - the shares are there to be bought, and share holders get a vote) and I am sure no prospective bidders would ever consider such a stunt either!|
|jeffian, others may rather wait and secure the extra money next week (some people wait 12 onths in a bank account to get 1% these days!) with the bonus of a chance to get much more (closer to the real value in the company) rather than cash in a week early. This was evident from only 6m shares being sold yesterday, even though the buyer was paying over 102p in some trades.
is there an alternative investment you suggest that gives me a guaranteed 1% in 4 days and also a slight chance of a really big (20-60%) increase too? if you know of any such investments, please share.
note those 35% shares are only promised if there is no bid 10% better. there is no guarantee of those shares, and PGI also apparently need to get approval of 50% of all shareholders, or they will have to up their bid, or go home.
anyway, that's all i can say, and it is just what i think - not advice, and i understand your opinion and can see why you wanted to cash in early if you have better use for the money.
in the meantime, figures released yesterday confirm USA new housing starts is getting stronger and stronger (new permits best in 5 years!) so I am relaxed about Fiberweb's prospects either way, and hope to eventually get much much more than a paltry 102p for my shares.|
It's the other way around. The fact that PGI already have 35% in their pockets plus a Board recommendation is a huge disincentive to anyone else to offer. Bidding is a time-consuming and expensive pastime which is why bidders like to wrap up negotiations with key shareholders and get a Board recommendation before going public. I can understand why "15-50% upside" might make you hold, but it's not going to happen, and I can't believe 1p makes much difference either way. Some people will wait for the 103.2p to drop in their laps via takeover and dividend over the next couple of months, other will take very slightly less off the table now and maybe put it to better use in the meantime. It's a matter of choice.|
|Blackstone Group issued the RNS yesterday but there hasn't been one from FWEB. Doen't make any difference just odd|