Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[gilesgraves] 03/3/2017 14:26

Is that a sale then? Is this why its been pushing down a little more than usual over the last couple of days?

[bellbottom] 03/3/2017 12:40

No official RNS yet, but,.........

[onedb1] 03/3/2017 12:15

Am still long .Not sure what is all the fuss . On fundamentals I stated many times . We know what 2015 Eps was ie 20p . We know 2016 should have bettered that . We'll have the news soon . We also know that 2017 has stared with $145 cash and probably around $50 EBitda per month . I did the calcs using $80 too . So a forward looking EPS of 30/35 with PE ratio of 7 gives me ample belief in 230p target . TA wise we are on trend and daily swings might be annoying to a scalper or swing trader ie more short term trading , but in the scheme of things and in agreement with trend trading , trend is up.

[gilesgraves] 03/3/2017 10:30

Well Im not sure. You never know we could end the day around 160. Impossible to predict. Iron Ore price looks Ok this morning

[bellbottom] 03/3/2017 10:18

Hi Giles,

I expect you are correct on a lower finish today. I note we are 12% down from the high of 175.
Roll on the 22nd March

[bellbottom] 03/3/2017 10:10

You really can't ignore the bigger picture in Ukraine. It's the trickle down effect that will inevitably have an impact on the economy and sentiment in Ukraine. I fully admit that if the blockade gets resolved and sincere discussions take place between all parties, then it will be a fantastic platform for the country as a whole as well as its industries. But if this blockade worsens and Ukraine has to take a $2billion hit to its already weak economy, then there will be a negative hit on the share price

Also, you cannot ignore the role and influence of K Zhevago in FXPO. He is major shareholder with many other business interests, which are and have taken a hit, both from shutdowns in rebel held areas and courts seizing assets as a way of recouping all those millions, whether he knew about fraudulent behaviour in his bank or not.
The NBU and courts are out to make him pay and don't think there won't be further 'issues' and distractions over the coming months ansd maybe years.

I really do hope that you can say to me in a few months time, 'you were wrong, just look at the share price now, well over £3.00 and still rising.'
I will happily eat my words, while washing them down with champagne.

[bellbottom] 03/3/2017 09:58

You'll have to pay a subscription to read the whole article. Basically, K Zhevago stating that he had no idea about fraudulent dealings in his bank, as he trusted his appointed management. I would tend to believe him.



More 'war' news in eastern Ukraine.



Excellent balanced view by Timothy Ash after his visit to Kiev. Worth reading through his opinions on plus points and negative points.



On a lighter note - Eurovision might just be worth watching this year (if it ever happens?!) due to the ongoing 'war' between Ukraine and Russia, with Ukraine being this year's hosts.

[gilesgraves] 03/3/2017 09:52

Fridays are always down for FXPO. Its been a dreadful couple of days but nothing out of the ordinary as far as I can see. Im thinking we could head north this afternoon. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and to have sold out and bought back in anywhere here would have been great. Im just holding though as I got caught out selling and then having to buy back higher in the past. I don't see any of the Ukraine or Zhevago news to be a problem to FXPO to be honest. Its always unnecessarily dramatic over there. I am also keeping an eye on PMO - that is getting very cheap.

[bellbottom] 03/3/2017 09:23

What's the feeling on finish today? Will we finish up or down?

I appreciate the trends and all the details and principles of those of us who are chartists, together with the excellent results expected on 22nd March, but I still can't divest myself of my inherent worries regarding the wider picture in Ukraine and its potential affect on share price.

I do hope my doubts are proved to be worthless and we do keep within the trend lines. It's just from past experience that I know that big events have a big impact on this share.

In any case, I am generally long on this share and have maxed out my investment in FXPO.
I admit, if I had anymore free dosh at the moment it would probably be thrown into ATYM or back into BCN. Never enough of the stuff to go around.

Good luck to all holders!

[discodave4] 02/3/2017 23:49

Thanks THORPMATT

[thorpematt] 02/3/2017 23:15

Below we can see the clear uptrend since the share price low. Also no resistance for a little while more!


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

A closer view shows this more visibly is still within range

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


The 50 day SMA is a good fit for this partticular stocks medium term movement and change of trend confirmations. This one is still very much in uptrend.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

Now don't get me started on £ vs USD because that partcular tailwind is a no brainer. FWIW I looked at buying in at 20p....but delayed awaiting a pullback for too long. I bought some time ago but not near bottom. I'd buy this now if I didn't hold too many for the portfolio rules I set.

[discodave4] 02/3/2017 19:10

Has it?, still seems to be within the channels to me.....but I'm no TA expert, far from it.Where's onedb1DD

[telbap] 02/3/2017 18:42

Bellbottom........must be reflecting in the share price pulling back as it has brocken out of its normal pattern......

[bellbottom] 02/3/2017 17:01

Yes, you can tell I'm having a quiet day.
More news on the goings on in Ukraine.

[bellbottom] 02/3/2017 16:56

So, our Boris has been in Kiev on an official visit.



Further escalation in the blockade, with huge repercussions if it doesn't get sorted out soon. Already businesses being affected. Lots of rhetoric but little else.

[bellbottom] 02/3/2017 11:51

The Ukrainian Journal. Always worth a read for general and specific news items affecting Ukraine economy.

[bellbottom] 02/3/2017 11:47

"Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ferrexpo Plc‘s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-‘ from ‘CCC,’ reads a report on the rating agency’s website."

News from yesterday.

[bellbottom] 02/3/2017 09:19

Found a few more weblinks in relation to the seizure of assets of K. Zhevago, major shareholder of FXPO and Ukrainian MP. These all relate to the liquidation of his Bank, Finance & Credit and the missing $53 million, allegedly moved offshore.
Google translate not a particularly good translation, but will give you the gist of the background story.

[telbap] 02/3/2017 08:14

One dB...cheers. I did not know that :-(Harva, it would appear we are on the up and up again, time to re open the SB position. (Well add another 25pp anyhow) got into a rhythm of running 50pp once the up trend is firm, and cutting down to 25pp while we tread water.I caught the 138 to 178 perfectly, but this one I missed as too busy in my day job. Ce la vie :-(Not sure 230 on this cycle, but certainly on the next leg up.It's fun here is it not!!Fantastic BB and a great company!

[discodave4] 01/3/2017 17:33

Agree onedb1Good luckDD

[onedb1] 01/3/2017 14:47

Just as I have been saying since the 70s .... When I initially targeted 165-170 . Now I am targeting 230. Stay long and forget daily swings that at any rate are usually at best 1* ATR . So about 8.2p . Not to mention the trend is pretty clear .Only swing traders trade the swing low and highs within the general pattern . But if you are not very familiar with such a strategy the best thing to do is to be on the right side of trend and momentum . With a trail stop either on the rising trend line or 1.5/2 ATR ( average true range of 14 or 20 days ) .Do the maths and I doubt one can disagree . Same story for Kaz Minerals from the 100s to mid 500s ( double bottom there the other day on the 4hr chart signal , at 514p, targeting 590-630 IMO )

[onedb1] 01/3/2017 11:47

THope all is good , just a FYI , a 'cup and handle' pattern is not a daily pattern . All the best and am long here and happy with my position . Trend is my friend . Iron ore looking great despite the FXPO chart breather . We had these before too and all were great times to accumulate

[bellbottom] 27/2/2017 16:10

More general background stuff to the Ukraine energy crisis.

[bellbottom] 27/2/2017 16:03

Not sure about the overall reliability of news coming from RT (Russia Today), but worth reading, if you remain slightly sceptical.