Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[shaf200] 31/10/2016 15:34

Will go in again at 90 and 80 if it ever goes there....

[tsmith2] 31/10/2016 13:03

Think we are readying for move up, indigestion over

[tsmith2] 31/10/2016 10:09

What blog?

[mark_jm] 31/10/2016 10:04

The Wigmore street Holdings transaction seems to have had the effect of pegging the share price below 110? Surely that wasn't the intention of the purchaser? Unless they are also responsible for some of the other 15 m shares that got bought on Friday as well, may they are accumulating in the open market now, and guess a lower price would be their short term objective in that respect?

[pbutterworth1] 31/10/2016 09:49

shaf - read the blog and rns. Nothing serious

[shaf200] 31/10/2016 09:25

Why the sudden "crash" last week? Been away...

[shaf200] 31/10/2016 09:23

Thinking about topping up? Any reasons not to??

[mustau] 31/10/2016 08:12

love too, no funds after adding at 1.08 0n Friday.

[muffster] 31/10/2016 08:11

Great time to buy in. Wigmore sold less that expected and level 2 data strong on the buy side.

[telbap] 31/10/2016 07:47

Someone has to report, they now own 9% at least, unless of course mire than 2 entities. ....is it 4% or 5% threshold?

[tsmith2] 31/10/2016 07:39

Holding RNS. Q is, who picked them up

[panic investor] 29/10/2016 10:09

bo90 - don't quite understand that last post - care to elaborate ?

[panic investor] 28/10/2016 18:38

Agreed on the trades most definitely - balancing books etc

[telbap] 28/10/2016 18:20

Panic....IMHO large trades were combo of day traders flipping, the 1.9 mill would be an institution either selling or buying,, late report, you can't tell. This will run back up in Monday/Tuesday by next Friday, back to yesterday's price

[fruitninja84] 28/10/2016 17:53

Fwiw imo an 18.6% intraday swing/move is the normal for this animal.

[pbutterworth1] 28/10/2016 17:39

...I don't think I will be able to get the share at 103.5 on Monday, but despite being heavily FXPO committed I will buy some more if I can....

[panic investor] 28/10/2016 17:07

Any views on the large end of day trades ?

[jjhbev] 28/10/2016 15:25

Well, what excitement! I certainly hadn’t seen this one coming!!!

Over the past two weeks I had been selling very modest amounts as the share price rose. Not, I hasten to add, on the same scale as Granto but rather an attempt to “trade” part of my holding with a view to buying back for less than I sold at. As is usual for me I was total poop! Sold first at 110p but it moved within the same day to 115p. So I sold some more – and then this week it moved to 120p and so I sold some – and then it moved to 125p and so I sold some and yesterday it got close to 130p. So, over the past week it has been Doh! Doh! Doh! And then came the RNS! So, this morning – like very many of you – I was buying at close to 10p below the price that institutions were prepared to pay for shareholding measured in the millions or tens of millions. Utter madness!!!
(By the way I also sold shares in the summer in the low 70s and had to buy them back around 80p!!!)

Let me be clear, I do not at all like seeing the value of my (substantial) holding being significantly less than yesterday. But, having said that, I do believe that fxpo is every bit as good as it was yesterday and with every day/week of iron ore prices being anywhere near where they are I feel more positive. The demand for pellets in particular appears to be increasing rather than there being any decreasing. So, IMO this was an opportunity and as of now I hold approx 10% more than I did two weeks ago. I hope that we don’t have a sell off at the back end of today like we did last Friday – but if that happens and we go back towards a pound I will add.

The only change in the fundamentals for fxpo over the past two weeks are that we have had an additional two weeks very profitable trading and that whereas iron ore prices were apparently in a downtrend they are now back over $60. We know that market forces are driving increasing demand for pellets and this is being reflected in prices. This is today’s market extract on the China market as shown on the Hellenic site:-

“Today, traders in imported iron ore market further lifted their quotations by RMB 5/tonne.
And prices of high grade iron ore at some ports went up by RMB 10-15/tonne. Currently, traders tended to keep firm. Actually, steelmakers’ shrinking profits caused by price of rally of coke forced them to procure high grade iron ore. However, supply shortage of high grade resources still existed at partial ports, which drove up prices. At the same time, strong futures market also boosted market sentiment to some extent. In downstream market, transactions were relatively good this morning. But, after futures market turned soft this afternoon, market confidence waned.”


By the time there is any further risk of Bakala selling again we will know exactly what the iron ore price (if not the exact pellet price) has been for the whole six month trading period. With two thirds of the trading period now done the figures will be good – it is just a question of how good. As Granto has been reminding us along the way fxpo has been and still is generating cash at a rate of $50m if not more per month. If this were to continue they will have by January most of the amount required for debt repayments in the whole of next year sitting in the form of cash –perhaps as much as three quarters.

The reality of having a major possible/probable seller in the market must dampen some of the pace of share price increase but I have no problem with that – for a while! Let’s see what things look like in three to four months time – I believe that we will be much higher.

One final thought on the debt side. The very expensive bonds fall due for repayment in 2017/2018. In the half year results presentation the FD indicated that they would look at restructuring but not until their performance and balance sheet would enable them to get a good deal. We now know that institutions have just paid $70m to buy shares at a price higher than the market price of 10 days ago and in fact approx 45% higher than the share price a month ago!!! If JPM can get that, perhaps getting the bonds restructured on good terms can be achieved sooner rather than later.

Best wishes

(p.s. I think I will give up on this “trading”; malarkey!)

[mreasygoing] 28/10/2016 15:00

Haha, my sarcasm didn't come through on here pb1. They'd have my trousers down if they could. Glad to have got one over on them today.

[tsmith2] 28/10/2016 14:24

1.5mn just been bought at 110p

[pbutterworth1] 28/10/2016 13:26

Yes of course its going back to and beyond 127, and it won't be long about it. This sale is actually of no consequence whatsoever in the big picture, and neither is the next one in +90 days. Wonder if our jumpy chums will sell again before 127, and if so at what share price As long as Putin keeps away from Ukraine (not 100% sure) this will run for months.

[fruitninja84] 28/10/2016 13:14

My guess is that if It can get above 110p and hold then a swift rally back to previous close of 127p is in the cards short term? Any other holders concur?

[pbutterworth1] 28/10/2016 13:10

mr e - don't thank the mm's. they will gut you. thank yourself.