Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[itchycrack] 05/8/2016 23:36

There are many stocks just going up for technical reasons only, without any fundamental changes to be positive about. These are going to be the best SHORTS when the crunch comes - and it will, just have to be patient :-)

[mreasygoing] 05/8/2016 15:59

Well recently it was on a p/e of just over 3 for this year and just over 6 for next year. So it looks pretty cheap :-)

[dunc1n bannanatyme] 05/8/2016 15:48

Thanks Mr.e ...?I've traded a few on way up and down and done ok I think this ones on the road to recovery so I'm staying put for a good while yet ,it's still way undervalued imo ...Im predicting we get a snippet of good news early/mid next week you never know ;-)

[mreasygoing] 05/8/2016 10:53

Glad you're "In" Duncan ;-)

[dunc1n bannanatyme] 04/8/2016 23:20

No worries pal ,A profit is a profit and all that and 12% in a couple of days after all is many years in the bank nowadays ;-)Think I'll hang around a while though Really fancy this one to do well in the short and long term...

[jjhbev] 03/8/2016 16:51

Hi Granto

Did you listen to the presentation this morning? If not I suggest that you do - and listen all the way to the very end of the Q&A. There you will hear a very clear intention to lock in pellet premiums on a multi year basis at rates of around $33-$35 per ton. The CEO gives the detailed reasoning for the particular strength in the pellets market and the continued positive outlook (with Samarco being a significant element). He emphasises that this is the case even assuming a decline in the iron ore price (which can be expected through the winter).

The revenue per ton for the last half year has come in at $76+. IF the pellet premiums are achieved around the mid$30s then this price level can be achieved with iron ore in the low $40s. Currently they must be achieving around $90 per ton even with the pricing formula in their sales contracts! The second half of this year is looking very good - and of course the interest costs will be coming down.

I think that the current level of performance is not fully appreciated even - or in part because of - these half year figures. What is "hidden" IMO is the difference between Q1 & Q2 in respect of both the base iron ore price and the pellet premiums. It would have been really really fascinating to have a Q1 & Q2 split! But we will see how things evolve over the second half.

On the debt side they sound - understandably - bullish on things through the rest of this year and 2017. It sounded to me as though they will be looking at rolling some of the Eurobond - and that they will be looking at incremental expansion (subject to market conditions) once their balance sheet and financial ratios are where they want them to be.

Any thoughts?

[top_banana1] 03/8/2016 12:32

Thanks mate. I had a good run for last 3-4 consecutive days, need to keep coolhead over confidence will get my nuts crushed. FXPO is on the up and for me it's always good to sell in the rise.

Have a nice 1 though.

[dunc1n bannanatyme] 03/8/2016 12:22

Well done mate ...You'll wish you kept them soon though

[top_banana1] 03/8/2016 12:10

Took 12% profit. Not bad.

In case my nuts gets crushed, better be on the safe side :)

[mreasygoing] 03/8/2016 11:30

Think like a Vulcan when investing, have no emotions. Your emotions will be your undoing if you're not careful.

[760il] 03/8/2016 11:13

YES KABOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

65P CLOSE TODAY


760il 2 Aug'16 - 21:04 - 3373 of 3382 0 0 edit

Kaboom tomorrow morning?

[top_banana1] 03/8/2016 11:05

Gimme gimme gimme 60p

[top_banana1] 03/8/2016 11:04

My baby doing me proud, average 49.5p buys yesterday is looking good :).

My star keeps shinning this week.what I have done to deserve this. Hallejulah

[muffster] 03/8/2016 08:17

Great news and ore prices up

[mreasygoing] 03/8/2016 07:52

Fantastic stuff.

[1speedster] 03/8/2016 07:23

Production volumes from own ore grew 4% to 5.7 million tonnes while output of the Group’s 65% Fe pellets
increased to a record 5.4 million tonnes.
 Record sales volumes for a half year period increasing 6% to 6.0 million tonnes.
 Pellet premiums recovered from lows seen at the start of the year to finish the period strongly.
2
 The cash cost of production reduced 23%, or by US$7.7 per tonne, to US$25.7 per tonne of pellets (1H 2015:
US$33.4 per tonne) as a result of local currency devaluation, lower oil prices and increased operating efficiencies.
 Operating profit, excluding foreign exchange gains, increased 2% to US$131 million in 1H 2016 compared to
US$128 million in 1H 2015.
 Net cash flows from operating activities increased by US$54 million to US$142 million compared to US$88 million
in 1H 2015 while, compared to FY 2015, net cash flows from operating activities increased by US$14 million (FY
2015: net cash flows from operating activities US$128 million).
 Net debt as of 30 June 2016 was US$753 million a US$115 million reduction compared to US$868 million as of
31 December 2015. Net debt to EBITDA for the last twelve months reduced to 2.5x as of 30 June 2016 compared
to 2.8x as of 31 December 2015.
 New trade finance facilities were secured in 1H 2016 with US$9 million in place at period end. The Group’s cash
balance increased US$9M to US$44 million as of 30 June 2016 compared to US$35 million as of 31 December
2015.
 In July 2016, the Group made the final amortisation of its US$420 million pre-export finance facility that had been
amortising over the past 24 months

[1speedster] 03/8/2016 07:22

result


www.ferrexpo.com/system/files/uploads/financialdocs/ferrexpo-2016-interim-results.pdf

[1speedster] 03/8/2016 07:16

Result, I do not know why it's not rns'ed but it's on the company website.

link below. The statement is quite long read it









3 August 2016

FERREXPO plc
(“Ferrexpo”, the “Group” or the “Company”)
2016 Interim Results


Ferrexpo plc, a top three supplier of iron ore pellets to the global steel industry, today announces interim results for the
six months ended 30 June 2016.
Michael Abrahams, Non-Executive Chairman, said:
“We are pleased to report a good set of financial results given the challenging circumstances in the iron ore industry. We
have improved the quality of our pellet output, increased sales volumes to record levels and significantly reduced our cost
base. Cash generated from operating activities was US$142 million for the period (up 61% compared to the first half of
2015) which allowed the Group to repay US$120 million of debt amortisation in the first half of 2016.
The Group continues to control costs and to benefit from selling a premium product to the world’s top steel mills. Pellet
demand remains strong and Ferrexpo believes it is well placed to continue to generate positive net operating cash flows
throughout the commodities cycle.”
1H 2016 Financial Summary:
US$ million (unless otherwise stated) 6 months
ended
30.06.16
6 months
ended
30.06.15

[panic investor] 02/8/2016 21:11

Wrong thread !

[760il] 02/8/2016 21:04

Kaboom tomorrow morning?

[granto2] 02/8/2016 15:36

That's an excellent analyses. Pretty much as I was thinking myself other than wondering about the Eurobond timing.

[jjhbev] 02/8/2016 15:06

Hi Granto

This is the debt summary from the last Annual Report.

“As of 29 February 2016, the Group has a US$420 million pre export financing (‘PXF’) facility, of which US$88 million is remaining and due to be repaid in five monthly amounts completing in July 2016, a US$350 million PXF facility, maturing in eight equal quarterly instalments starting in November 2016, and the above US$346 million Eurobond maturing in equal parts in April 2018 and April 2019. Cash on hand as of 29 February 2016 was US$36 million following the repayment of US$39 million of debt year to date. “


As we know, the $88m has been repaid and (we believe!) we are generating very good cash flow at present.

By April 2018 FXPO will/should have made 6 payments on the $350m PXF facility leaving only 2 payments totalling $87.5m outstanding & therefore debt inclusive of the Eurobond will be approx $435m. That is less than 1.5x last year’s EBITDA and it is really hard to see why rolling part or all of the Eurobond would be a problem. Alternatively they need to generate free cash flow of around $20m a month between now and then to meet the due payments in full (excluding any free cash they now hold). Remaining debt would then be $260m

It will be really interesting to try and get a handle on a forward p/e ratio after tomorrow!