Ferrex Share Discussion Threads

[edgein] 02/7/2015 09:13

RS,

Thanks for your views, your post sums things up very well. I agree there will be an equity element to the funding as the CEO has already commented on funding discussions at a significant premium to the share price earlier in the year. As you suggest moving Togo to early production, permit, DFS, funding, will help advance Gabon and SA, neither of which are reflected in the share price. The coming sequence of events could be a game changer for the longer term future of FRX and its other sizeable assets.

Regards,
Ed.

[rec0very stock] 02/7/2015 08:57

Ed,

Normally the issue of a permit is just one stepping stone, it normally comes fairly early in the process, however because of all the delays to the permit issue, the other steps like completing the DFS, which was dependent upon the signing of the mining convention back in Mar as that is what sets tax and royalty rates and also what community project will need to be funded etc, once the DFS is completed which it was some time ago funding options can be finalised and all the papers drawn up - these will be conditional on the permit and may already be signed on that condition or are just waiting for the permit for final signature. Thus there is no reason not to expect that the ducks are already completely lined up.

We may get one RNS with everything in it, but they may decide to do the permit one day, the DFS release the next day and the funding the day after. That is the sort of timescale I would expect.

There was also that tantalizing throw away line in the interims regarding innovative funding for Gabon. I would not be surprised if some sort of update on that followed maybe a week after all the Togo news.

I do need to caveat all that by saying that things can fall apart at the last minute as happened with the Anglo deal for Gabon a year ago. It is about time the company had a bit of luck. Also we need to see the detail of the DFS and of the funding package to assess what a fair price for the shares are - the funding will not be by charitable donation, there will almost certainly be dilution either at project, but more likely at PLC level, there may be be interest to pay and there may also be some sort of life of project discount that is applied to the output in some form of off take all of which impacts the future cashflows to the company. At the moment the company is desperate for cash and I would expect that the funding package will come with some form of immediate cash injection - if it does not then some form of fundraising will be required, though that could then be done on the back of a significantly improved share price. There are plenty of other risks that could materialize as there always are with any small, early stage mining company. Thus whilst I think the potential upside is significant enough to make it worth taking the risk of investing, I am not over exposed and FRX remains a relatively small part of my overall portfolio, but it is currently my largest recovery play, having invested the proceeds of other recovery plays into it.

[sashimi] 02/7/2015 08:47

very small volume and mm move it up. Wait for volume to kick in and then we can see it really move.

[edgein] 02/7/2015 08:23

RS,

Thanks for your posts, sounds interesting. We've been anticipating that the mining licence comes soon so your posts fit in with that. We've also seen what receiving a mining licence did to AMC and SXX recently and what anticipation of a mining licence has done to JLP and EUA. So if the management deliver on funding, DFS and mining permit we could get major share price boomage on our £6-7m cap. Listening to the inverview that the CEO back in feb gives the impression that many of these issues were covered back then. Ducks about to line up?

Regards,
Ed.

[clocktower] 02/7/2015 08:19

Story seems to have traction.

[rec0very stock] 01/7/2015 20:16

ct

Nope it is from someone in Togo who saw it on the telly.

There is also this post on LSE:

Unsolicited news from DR

Happy for me to share news from the ground that at the formal meeting of Ministers in Togo, Ferrex project was specifically mentioned in relation to Nayega Mine, after one of the Members requested more detail. PM responded along the lines of 'Discussions with company will complete soon with permit issued to allow mining'

DR clearly chuffed 'light at the end of a long tunnel'


You must take into account that the president has been promising DR a licence for ages, politicians in our own country cannot be trusted to actually do what they say they are going to do, it is even less the case in places like Togo.

The licence has not been awarded yet. All you should reed into it is that there is interest in the project amongst the politicians for the question to be asked and the answer to the question bodes well. There is plenty that could still go wrong - in some places in African even awarded licences have been revoked and given to others.

What is interesting is how a very small number of buys - came to just over £5k, moved the share price more than it has moved in quite a while.

It is up to you whether you buy on this - it does not actually say anything that has not already been said, ie when ministers are appointed they will get round to issuing the licence and that is expected to happen before end Sep.

It is entirely possible that the share price will drop back again if the wait for the licence drags on, however I am as convinced as anyone can be that once / if the licence is granted the genie will be released from the bottle.

I have all the FRX share I want. I would have bought at few more if I could have got them below 0.45, as my last top up was just below 0.5. It all comes down to what price you put on certainty. With early stage mining companies operating in places like Togo, there is no such thing as certainty only reduced or increased risk. From where I was before I learned of what the Prime Minister said in response to the question - it was not in his programme that he announced, it was in response to a question, this information represents a relatively small reduction in risk - I have always been over 90% confident that the permit would be awarded and it was just a question of when.

I hope the above enables you to assess the information provided in accordance with your own risk appetite and you can make your own investing decision accordingly.

[sashimi] 01/7/2015 18:50

Yep same here. Glad I topped up too. When we get the news we came be moving very fast.

[clocktower] 01/7/2015 16:56

Before we jump the gun RS is there any link that confirms your post 4712?

[rec0very stock] 01/7/2015 16:39

Up 15% just on that! what is it going to do when the real news comes?

I am glad I did my top ups when I did, there does not seem to be much spare stock around and everything else should be in place (DFS and finance) just waiting on the permit.

[alan@bj] 01/7/2015 16:37

Excellent news - thanks RS.

[novicetrade68] 01/7/2015 16:32

Wow, that's fantastic RS, thanks for posting that.

[rec0very stock] 01/7/2015 16:15

Apparently yesterday during the Togo equivalent of the Queen's speech, a question was asked about the Nayega Manganese project and the prime minister replied "the government will soon complete the discussions with the company and deliver the licence permit". This was shown on Togo national TV news.

Fingers crossed not long to wait now and everything coming together nicely.

[edgein] 30/6/2015 11:38

Hopefully it'll be enough time to line up all the ducks, permit, DFS and funding all in one announcement. Sounds like DFS is ready just being held back until funding signed off. So I guess the mining permit will trigger the rest.

Regards,
Ed.

[clocktower] 30/6/2015 11:18

RS he may want to get the ball rolling sooner than later imo,to show an eagerness to proceed with beneficial projects that create investment and income and more important jobs. Thanks for the link, as I missed it.

[tcrober1] 30/6/2015 10:56

Good find RS
Hopefully he will be on the ball and issue the licence quickly.
The rainy season in Togo is Sept- March so Dave will have factored this into the equation.

[rec0very stock] 29/6/2015 09:07

Well at least we have a minister of mines appointed:



"Ably Bidamon (Mines et Energie)"

It is a shame Noupokou Dammipi was not reappointed - he is not even in the cabinet.

I suspect the 2 weeks from appointment to permit issue will be in accordance with my translation above and we will see the permit towards the end of Sept, or maybe even later.

All good things come to those who wait.

[rec0very stock] 25/6/2015 16:32

“Le nouveau gouvernement est annoncé pour les heures à venir, ce qui vient couper court à la rumeur sur son état de santé qui serait, selon ses détracteurs, défectueux”

Which google translates as:

“The new government is announced for the next few hours , which has cut short the rumors about his health that would, according to critics , faulty”

As this was published on Tues, one might have expected an announcement on who had been appointed on Wed or at the latest today. However google only does ordinary French and not Togolese French thus a further translation engine is needed to decipher it.

Putting the French word heures into the translation engine of experience comes out with a translation of days. Putting in “jours” comes out with weeks and “semaines” gives months and “mois” gives years. I have not dared put “ans” in as I am too afraid what it will say.

Anyway we will get there in the end, I just hope I am not too old to enjoy the proceeds when we do.

[rec0very stock] 18/6/2015 16:00

I had another small top up sub 0.5p today, maybe the false rumours of the President's stroke helped me get it, who knows. I have all I want for now, but might do another small top up sub 0.45 if the opportunity arises as the licence award is still a few weeks away. Whilst the Prime Minister has been appointed, I have not seen any news of other ministers being appointed and it will not be the first thing they do once they are appointed.

As always nothing is certain and had the president had a stroke that would definitely have caused a significant delay, as could other unforeseeable circumstances so here is wishing the president and his ministers, when he appoints them, the very best of health.

[cyprussteve] 18/6/2015 13:25

Hi guys,
Just for info - all you have to do to make the links work on advfn is to type the capital letters "TT" instead of the lower case "tt" - and hey presto - it will work !

[andylee3] 17/6/2015 14:56

Thanks Clock, perhaps he's behind closed doors with DR discussing awarding the licence? Better not start rumours though eh? LOL

[clocktower] 17/6/2015 14:49

An easy link to follow andylee3:

hxxp://www.dakaractu.com/Le-chef-de-l-Etat-togolais-est-invisible-depuis-une-dizaine-de-jours-mais-ou-etait-donc-passe-Faure-Gnassingbe_a91725.html

Fit and well but out of sight so maybe busy finding minsters to appoint to sign these licences, that would make all followers of this thread happy sending the share price nearer to the place you wish. :-)

[andylee3] 17/6/2015 14:47

You need to replace the hxxp with http in the link for it to work. But in case it doesn't here is the article.....


The Head of State, Faure Gnassingbé is indeed in Lomé and is healthy. "He had several working sessions in his office at the presidential palace Tuesday" told Jeune Afrique the Chief of Staff of the Presidency of the Republic.

Faure Gnassingbé, who has not appeared in public for at least ten days, the subject of many rumors about his health. An unusual but not necessarily worrying disappearance.

"Faure Gnassingbe is a very quiet man but he did not usually stay outside as long as the news," said on condition of anonymity an accredited diplomat in Lome which nevertheless refutes disease . "He may have taken a few days off after the intense election period that the country has known," says the diplomat, who wished that the authorities communicate more about the situation.

Stroke, hospitalization in Italy ... The rumors have been circulating for several days on social networks about the Togolese head of State. The allegations about the Togolese head of state's health were denied by the Director of the President's communication cited by a Togolese private newspaper late last week.

However the absence of Faure Gnassingbé at the AU summit in South Africa always throws blur even if the Director of Cabinet of the Presidency of the Republic confirms the presence in Lomé and the health of the Togolese number 1 reelected on April 25 last.

Source Jeune Afrique Africa via Mail

[andylee3] 17/6/2015 14:37

President fit and healthy!....

hxxp://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&prev=search&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&;sl=fr&u=hxxp://www.togoactualite.com/togo-faure-est-a-lome-et-a-eu-plusieurs-seances-de-travail-dans-son-bureau-mardi-selon-la-directrice-de-cabinet-de-la-presidence/&usg=ALkJrhj3inGvSAWLH9ND2xr-vKDrD9Gzsg

Before you jump down my throat 4STA, the article appears to be genuine. But please judge for yourself.

[alan@bj] 16/6/2015 16:46

4STA - if you think something like that could send the shares into freefall you must have had at least a bottle of something good. Chill out a bit.