Falkland O&G Share Discussion Threads

[chrisc168] 08/11/2015 15:35

Agna ignore anyone who disagree with him

[agnabeya] 08/11/2015 12:23

Charlie, put them on ignore. They aren't worth wasting a second of your time on.
Maybe the Argentine Election conspiracy theorist on the other board is right.
I wouldn't have thought it possible for them to hold back news until after the 22nd Nov.....but will be happy to be proven wrong.
I am still being very cautious FWIW.

[chrisc168] 08/11/2015 09:51

I would un-friend that contact.

[greyingsurfer] 07/11/2015 21:00

Not going to say much more but I have heard from a decent and reliable contact in the industry that it was oil of a sizable quantity but not knowing the type of fluid made it non commercial.

Doesn't sound a very reliable contact to me!

[smileycharlie] 07/11/2015 15:57

Not going to say much more but I have heard from a decent and reliable contact in the industry that it was oil of a sizable quantity but not knowing the type of fluid made it non commercial. What rotten luck indeed. Had oil been sampled and even if non commercial in volume at the current oil price the share price would be sitting 20+p. It does open up the other plays in the south basin though so I would expect the 'shooting fish in a barrel' is still on

ngms27, could they still be trying to sample the fluid? I don't know but Isobel spud is scheduled for next week and they are P&A'ing a well that has pay of some sort, so my guess is that it is just taking awhile longer than usual. The P&A operation is on Noble's tab.

Going to laugh (or maybe cry) if they confirmed oil next week.

[efagie] 07/11/2015 13:12

It could quite easily be well control related given they didn't drill to the prognosed TD and haven't stated why.

in a way they have, the lower 25m sand is poor quality with little oils, so anything below that is NOT likely to be any better. Thats IF any sands are shown below that point...

[greyingsurfer] 07/11/2015 11:23

It could quite easily be well control related given they didn't drill to the prognosed TD and haven't stated why.

I wouldn't read too much into that. The planned TD would have been based on interpretations of seismic. The final TD would have been based on drilling, and there would be no great surprise if their pre drill expectations of the geology were 100m or so out.

Why fluid samples etc? More likely to be technical issues than anything else, it's hardly uncommon, and without they're unlikely to be much wiser about there being anything interesting down there than us.

Peter

[oilbandit] 06/11/2015 22:26

bouncing back....i think pre drill 26p and during drilling phase 35p because this area is already proven up very well.

bandit.

[agnabeya] 06/11/2015 19:10

I'd dearly love your opinion to be correct, ngms,

But my own gut feeing is something feels off, but it could be anything.
I don't have enough info to make an anyway decent guess.
Weekend break now .so HAGWA...and see y'all Monday. :)

[ngms27] 06/11/2015 17:24

It could quite easily be well control related given they didn't drill to the prognosed TD and haven't stated why. They may have had to abandon the drill for the same reasons as Isobel Deep namely hitting an over pressurised zone that may or may not have been Hydrocarbon bearing.

The 16th October RNS stated:
Once the well has reached total depth a further set of wireline logs will be run. Subject to operational constraints, this will include a formation test tool which may be able to establish a pressure gradient within the sands and also recover a sample of formation fluid to surface for definitive analysis.

So why didn't this happen? Best guess is well control...

In my opinion they hit something interesting but were unable to carry out the required analysis to declare a commercial find AT this point.

[agnabeya] 06/11/2015 16:51

Ngms.....why would it be well control?
That suggests pressure...and they didn't appear to find anything under pressure.

The weather was bad for a move, but if you're going to sit it out ( as they did).... why not just sit it out over the well?
I would presume the ER can handle 7 metre waves....algthough I've no idea what the swell was.

[ngms27] 06/11/2015 15:30

The only thing that makes sense is safety.

Now was it the weather or was it well control problems?

[agnabeya] 06/11/2015 15:03

Ngms....nope.
It moved off for a few days and then sat still.
It must have unhooked to do that.
Now it's back.
It really doesn't make sense, but there is no oil flowing from Humpback.
Of that I'm sure.
I just can't figure out what's happening atvall.
I even doubt if the crew onboard know exactly what's going on.

[chrisc168] 06/11/2015 14:22

ER needed refueling, what's better than let some out of Humpback to save costs and time.

[whoppy] 06/11/2015 14:13

Probably still getting data..they've just realised there is more oil there than they thought.

[ngms27] 06/11/2015 14:12

It just wants to keep flowing, but not commercially....

[mr hangman] 06/11/2015 13:16

Yes it's quite amazing the FCA do nothing, when FOGL can't find oil & the price goes down

[jayrh] 06/11/2015 13:14

Yeah the little man gets it but these so called companies get away with murder, fca do nothing ie new afren and many more corrupt bod....

[luckyman3] 06/11/2015 06:58

Everyone has to be carefull what they say

[oilbandit] 05/11/2015 23:18

this will recover ....the gas pressure on elaine/elizabeth was so massive that the oil will pump itself to surface...this means that the sealion well is absolutely huge.....far larger than previously thought....
im very much looking forward to this next well because ive spoken to fogl personally and therfore i am much more confident in this next drill.

10p was predicted.....however means nothing unless your mugg enough to sell
i prefer to ride the storm into the wind for now ive got nothing to lose and only everything to gain.

my prediction on this next well is that they will find about 450 million barrels at least.....for wheres there massive gas pressure...theres oil.
and remember oil and gas was found also down south but sadly porosity was the problem.
you guys can argue all you like ....freedom of speech prevail however at the end of the day all the argueing in the world on any thread dont resolve the problem of extracting and making this province commercial.
nothing happens in fact until the fat lady sings....and in my opinion eventually sing she will.
looking good in the north and remmember oil has already been found by the bucket load.......come on phippys old boy this is dessies area.

dont cry over spilt milk lads lets get on with the job to hand.

there will be brilliant results for xmas....mark my words.

bandit.

[rogerlin] 05/11/2015 19:54

Some nice cartoons on pages 23-24.

[agnabeya] 05/11/2015 15:34

ER still on Humpback, but the weather is pretty bad.
Bad enough to delay a move for the time being.
The crew wil be looking forward to the move to quieter waters.

[agnabeya] 05/11/2015 13:45

Rob,
At the moment it's looking to stay at 10.5.
Without any further news, single digits will probably come - even briefly.
The volume says buyers seem happy with these prices.

I got the majority of mine at just over 13.....but that wee negotiated trade I did skewed my average.
At least I got out at 23.75,
So my holding has almost doubled.
All I need now is for the share price to rise and my cunning plan will have worked.
The ISAs are another story though....:(