Falkland O&G Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 26/8/2015 17:25

Fully agree - the DIY approach is an absolute necessity when it comes to your own finances. Done my homework and am happy with my FOGL punt at the moment. Reason I follow boards is a) it allows me to exchange views with a few other posters, and b) gauge the prevailing market sentiment. That's about it, really. Enjoy the evening boys and girls!

[agnabeya] 26/8/2015 15:32

tongosti - I only became a Fogl holder by default of the merger.
I was a DES cheerleader from the beginning - and held RKH and BOR - but never FOGL.
Funny how it pans out - and it's pure speculation for me too - but obviously I believe it's a good bet. My average is fairly low - so I have a good chance of making something out of it.
I don't want anyone to do what I do - it suits me and I'm happy with it.
But I never - and no-one should ever - take advice from anonymous posters on a BB. Not even GClarke who is genuinely straightforwards and good. :)

[tongosti] 26/8/2015 14:40

Upside/downside is a probability weighted concept (as opposed to an iron clad guarantee that the price is on a one-way street from here). If one is familiar with the (probability weighted) expected return concept, then one should understand. Naturally, things could go belly up (that's why I called FOGL a speculating bet earlier) but the relevant question to ask yourself is: on the balance of probabilities, on which side of the fence are my risks skewed towards?GLA

[ngms27] 26/8/2015 14:22

Is it really?

What if the following scenario takes shape:
Humpback is a failure with cost overrun. Instead of having £20m in the bank post drilling campaign they have £5 to £10m
Isobel isn't redrilled in this campaign
PMO don't sanction Sea Lion development in the current POO environment.

Where would that leave FOGL? This is perhaps the most likely permutation.

Certainly a lot cheaper than they are now.

[tongosti] 26/8/2015 14:09

Agna - that's what I call putting your money where your mouth is mate!I have a smaller stake than yours in FOGL as I subscribe to a slightly different investing philosophy (to me FOGL is more of a speculation bet as opposed to investment), but my holding is still very meaningful in £ terms. What I love about FOGL at the moment is the huge skew of the upside/downside profile. For reasons which have been discussed on this board before, FOGL is currently very cheap to where it is likely to be in a few years time.

[agnabeya] 26/8/2015 13:41

Tongosti....I am all in FOGL.
Almost 450k shares.
That's because I believe the FI is where to be, no matter how long it takes. :)
I personally don't think it will be too long for me.
I've been in the FI since 1999.
I can afford to wait a bit longer.
I'm also certain that economies and oil prices are manipulated behind the scenes.
We can't even know what's going on really.
The global economy as it stands is all about faith.
It's nothing tangible, only digital signals when you think on it.
Crashes and booms are allowed to happen at expedient moments ( expedient for the puppet masters I mean).
I'm just hoping to ride on their coat tails. :)


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[greyingsurfer] 26/8/2015 11:58

The price of oil is politics. Not economics.

Only in the short/mid term. SA can turn on the taps and bring the price down, but it can only do it as long as it and the rest of the world have sufficient reserves and production. That can only go on so long at present prices. If production can't be replaced at these prices then no one can keep the price down once depletion kicks in.

And equally, no one can keep it up if there is plenty of available production to come on line at lower prices. Though, of course if the price stays so low that investment drops right off we'll see the rebound of all rebounds in a few years while we wait for investment to work it's way through into production. Hopefully, the politicians who have some control over the shorter term are smart enough to stop that happening - but don't hold your breath on that.

Peter

[tongosti] 26/8/2015 11:40

Agna - the fact that I am long in FOGL gives away (in addition to speculating on Falklands themselves as a potentially new oil province) my personal conviction on the oil price direction in the future. Sure, politics dictates oil prices and who knows when the inflection point from bear to bull will take place. I hope such inflection point takes place sooner (in an ideal world, also coinciding with a massive Humpy strike!) rather than later as that will undoubtedly have a positive effect on energy stock price levels. In addition, trillions of paper money printed out of thin air over the last few years will undoubtedly be reflected on commodity prices going forward. When, I hear you ask? Well, that's the next zillion $ question. Naturally, the key point then would be how much price growth will be Real as opposed to Nominal. In the meantime, I am calmly looking forward to the next few weeks. They should be eventful not only for FOGL but for the wider markets as well. GLA

[agnabeya] 26/8/2015 10:51

tongosti -
it will stay at what the politicos want it to be for as long - or as short - as they want it to.
We just have to work with that as it isn't going to change.

The price of oil is politics. Not economics. It's likely to stay that way (politically driven) until the oil runs out or someone perfects cold fusion (which won't happen until the oil runs out, of course).

This on Bloomberg today - but don't think for a moment this isn't how it works.

[tongosti] 26/8/2015 08:29

Another one arguing that current oil price levels are not sustainable in the longer run:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/norway-s-oil-minister-says-crude-price-at-40-can-t-last

[stevebrrr] 25/8/2015 10:10

Getting interesting now imo.

[fludde] 25/8/2015 09:22

"With two successes under our belt already and two more wells to complete, the Board looks to the future with confidence"

Fundraising talk IMO.....

[whoppy] 25/8/2015 09:02

Sure any rig can have problems, but they say the drilling is ongoing (so it is working) and that the cost delay will be borne by Noble through a commercial arrangement. I wouldn't of thought it's to do with the operation of the rig or the rig owner would bear the costs for delay.

[ch1ck] 25/8/2015 09:02

I bought back in yesterday after selling over a year ago.Prospects look great with oil prices on the floor and winter not far a way and some analysts saying oil should bounce in the next six months Whats not to like

[ohisay] 25/8/2015 08:48

Agree about geology.

But Nothing wrong with the rig you can't possibly know that.

[whoppy] 25/8/2015 08:38

Nothing wrong with the rig. The geology has never been drilled before and well designs unproven for these prospects. If they encounter larger pressure due to high energy reservoirs and good porosities/permeabilities then they will find it difficult to control the well and might need extra mud or put in extra casing or drill slightly differently. The actual rig will accomplish whatever they need to within the parameters of the well design. I'm looking forward to the result as are the company.

[ohisay] 25/8/2015 08:26

It does make you wonder whether this rig has the wherewithal to get any kind of result with Isobel if they get the go ahead to redrill.
Its one thing to worry about the commerciality of the oil prospects quite another to wonder if the rig is up to it.

[whoppy] 25/8/2015 08:18

The commercial arrangement being negotiated with Noble is probably about oil. Any dealys due to rig performance equipment etc is borne by the rig owners. Then there are insurances to cover unforseen events that cost time and money. So coming to a commercial arrangement would be something to do with how they want to proceed with the well due to what the well is telling them. If it's commercial then FOGL must have something to negotiate with that is worth something to Noble to cover any extra costs such as doing a sidetrack.

[shanieboy01] 25/8/2015 08:12

Idleduck I dont agree. Still 3 weeks to news

[kulsan] 25/8/2015 08:04

I am a buyer here..great prospects

[spacecake] 25/8/2015 07:44

Brent down as low as $42 to $43 / barrel

Slight bounce in some markets..
ASX 200 +2.7%
Taiwan +3.5%
Kospi +1%

But shanghai -7.3%

[agnabeya] 25/8/2015 07:39

Tongosti....agree.
A placing may or may not come, but IMHO FOGL are worth holding for the potential.
I only became a holder by default after the DES merger.
I may become an ARG holder again before Rhea....but I'll see how this one pans out first.

[whoppy] 25/8/2015 07:32

Wouldn't be surprised if they need the extra 35 days to sidetrack the well. The ER is a modern rig with everything needed including spares..not much can go wrong..apart from the weather and the geology. They cover everything that can go wrong and are looking forward to the result.