Falkland O&G Share Discussion Threads

[agnabeya] 14/11/2014 11:56

Hi Truly -

I had a look - and it's a bit risky for my taste at present.
I've only read the cursory stuff on the front page of Pantheon's website and dont really have a feel for it yet - but good luck with it. :)

[trulyscrumptious] 14/11/2014 10:20

Hi agna, all set for the off, I have my fill here. However, why not check out PANR as the tipsters and twitter freaks have missed it. Fully funded. Spud should be end December with another one after that.

[mariopeter] 13/11/2014 17:43

Good to see familiar names about.

Cost of producing one barrel in Falklands $35.


From PMO today:

"The drilling rig for the four well North Falkland Basin campaign is scheduled to arrive on location in February with the Zebedee well expected to spud in March followed by the Isobel Deep well in the south of PL004a. Results of these wells are expected to be known by mid-May. Two further wells will be drilled in the third quarter of 2015."

[agnabeya] 13/11/2014 14:05

FALKLAND ISLANDS GOVERNMENT
PRESS STATEMENT

FALKLAND ISLANDS GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO PREMIER OIL ANNOUNCEMENT 13th NOVEMBER 2014

The Falkland Islands Government notes the announcement by Premier Oil of their revised proposal for commercial oil production in theFalkland Islands, which it is considered represents a realistic solution to progress development in the current international oil price environment.

FIG Director of Mineral Resources, Stephen Luxton, commented: “FIG and its advisers has been working closely with Premier Oil to take forward development of the Sea Lion field and look forward to the existing productive working relationship continuing through project sanction to first oil production.”

FIG welcomes the participation and investment of international oil companies in the opportunities for oil and gas exploration and development in Falkland Islands waters.

Mobilisation for the forthcoming exploration programme commencing in early 2015 is already underway, and FIG has received the first submissions from operators seeking the required regulatory approvals to commence drilling. FIG continues to be committed to regulating offshore oil and gas exploration and production to North Sea standards for safety and environmental protection.

[agnabeya] 13/11/2014 13:31

Cheers LC - . As Rob asked - what do you make of today's RKH RNS?

I know I wasn't asked Rob - but the first thing that struck me was -
no done deal. No new partner.

Then falling back on RKH's original FPSO plan seemed to be a scurry to limit what they have to pay out as part of their deal.
The markets won't like that I don't think.

I never liked the deal and that's why I sold out of RKH - I made it clear at the time I thought PMO were over reaching themselves.
They seem to be downgrading their interest in SL for now to concentrate on other projects.

It doesn't affect the oil in the ground - it's still there.
However - as Purple points out - oil below 80 and maybe further will affect all exploration.
I remember 1998 in the North Sea vividly.

That's my only 'worry' for now. Not too worried as I can't see it getting back to 1998 levels - but I could be wrong. Often am. :)



edit -

Sorry for this preposterous O/T -
but how cool is this?
The noise a comet makes 300 million miles away!
I'm convinced it houses a colony of Clangers!

hxxps://soundcloud.com/esaops/a-singing-comet

[purple11] 13/11/2014 13:11

oil below 80

[robpuguk] 13/11/2014 12:25

Le com, what do u think on todays rejig with sea lion?

[le_commissaire] 13/11/2014 12:16

Agna

Those last lines are so very true and why i always add a disclaimer to my hard, shall we say, 'assumptions'.

Case in question was recently on BLVN when the current waiting news item was the Decree signing of the EEAA by Paul Biya.
I posted on the morning of the Decree signing that apparently it was to be signed that afternoon.
As i never post recommendations to either buy or sell i added a usual disclaimer that the post should be taken as hearsay although stressing that it was local and not market fed and should not be taken as anything else than rumour.

The words you used "Posts are useful in making you look at things differently - but that's all", should be a doctrine engrained into every new blood investor who is not used to the shall we say 'murkier' parts of the AIM market in general, where a myriad of tipster sites have appeared handing out supposedly sound information.

The very nature of the sites with their social media spamming and the fact that the majority of the most prolific ones are owned by people who have either had very poor personal investment histories, or worse have their articles written by mere pi's that have appeared on bulletin boards over the years with themselves historically showing a very poor investment history with some extremely bad and amateurish short calls and failed P&D campaigns, is damagingly representational.

In fact one self appointed tipster tweeted a short on RKH not long ago at 86p with a target of just 50p. Apparently RKH would be getting very bad news on MOG which would decimate the share price and also added that basically the FKL's stocks were finished.

The next day, the RNS arrived and the RKH share price started a merry dance with speedy repose to eventually the £1 mark.
On seeing this, the tweeter and cohorts suddenly turned about face and launched a campaign saying that RKH and FOGL were 3xbaggers.
Also that PMO had secured 2 farm in partners that would be announced in October.

And THESE people give out investment advice????

Also, what is more worrying but is never seen by the gullible new blood pi's that believe in what they are told, is that the writers and editors are in the majority just plain old 9-5 workers who have never spent 1 day in their lives within a financial institution. In fact if i ran off a list of employments that i have sourced from one of the main tipster sites it would read very much like - "Butcher, Baker, Candlestick Maker.

These are the failed fund managers and 9-5 average joe, average working wage experts that have the dubious power of wrong-footing innocent fresh pi's and old hand pi's that will never ever learn via an ever increasing army of dubious websites that make Tom Bullford look like a veritable priest.


As long as regulation in the financial market is so weak then these 'types' will always exist which is a great shame.

[agnabeya] 13/11/2014 11:35

Purple - the first post I ever saw from him was that Toroa was a duster - a day and a half before it was announced. (I wasn't a holder)
He also made some good calls on the oil testing at Sea Lion.
That gave him credibility back then.
He also doesn't post very often.

But agreed - no-one should be taking trading advice on a forum.
Posts are useful in making you look at things differently - but that's all.

[purple11] 13/11/2014 08:49

cant understand the fascination with gclarke.

nothing he predicted in the past came good

he made a loss on his investment.

looks to me he was just another punter that didn't know what he was talking about.

quite why ppl think he may now know what he is talking about is a strange one!

[agnabeya] 13/11/2014 08:33

So - PMO couldn't get a deal and are going with the plan they talked about when they first showed up?
Good they haven't announced a delay - but if they haven't got a deal I very much doubt ARG will have one yet.

Still watching and waiting. GLA

[mr hangman] 12/11/2014 21:13

Another life story from the trannie zzzzzz

[agnabeya] 12/11/2014 15:31

Thanks for that LC - I'll have a look at your post on BLVN.

I never give advice either -
I say what I'm doing and why - but that doesn't mean I'm right. :(
I've had some lucky hunches on the past and really I tend more towards trading when things are happening. I'm done with the really long term 'investing' like I did with DES.
I sold my RKH when I saw the terms of the deal with PMO.
I didn't think it could end well - at least not for a long time.

Fogl is my best bet at the moment - I think the best returns will be from them in the short term for me.
Funny - as I never fancied the SFB before and wasn't intereseted. Now I'm a holder by default.
I'm still not a fan of the SFB yet - I still think it's the riskier acreage.
That's just IMHO
I'm just waiting for a top up level in FOGl before Xmas. :) GLA

{I think this Gclark25 (with the number after his name) is the real deal.
I think the other one spelled his name Clarke?}

[le_commissaire] 12/11/2014 15:20

agna

There are 2 Gclarkes as i believe Syn created one after a long argument between Tas, BHS and Syn when the XEL 'thick as treacle" emails were doing the rounds so that a number of posters from the PBB could take some cheap positions pre RNS mark up.

Gclarke as was originally posted some very accurate calls on DES in the early days as did raptor as from memory i remember he was related in some way to the cousins of the Phipps.

My reply to the suggestion that ALL FKL's stocks should be sold immediately was not my usual calm reply and contained response but it is on my PBB BLVN board.


I have always stated from early inception of ARG that i would never invest in them nor BOR with the SFB being the reason for one and the ownership of the other so my reply was slightly biased down to our positions in FOGL which are obviously a transferral of our 3% DES holding and our RKH position both of which i retain full confidence in as do the two FM's who not averse to being blunt as i posted a strong sell at £70 on ASC due to their overheat call, along with mention that we had sold our 8y position.

I never post reccs, buy, sell lay off etc as that should be the decision of the individual shareholders and not of any poster nor spiv tipster, but i did post one solitary buy recc again on the BLVN board that at 24p, FOGL was a no brainer even for a retained medium term buy & hold for the campaign.

On the whole RKH is our largest position of the two but i still believe that FOGL will gain more yield'to'risk during the boots on deck initial period of the campaign. Strange opinion but i remain extremely bullish and have been on both since our re-entry this time last year.

I say 're-entry' as we sold out our entire RKH position 5 days before the PMO RNS alongside a post of mine on the LSE RKH board to sell over the next 3 days as the deal would as i quote "crucify the stock and put it in stasis for a considerable time".

Seeing as i had been one of the most outspoken bulls of RKH from our original 44p position over a number of years, the post was met with derision, until the actual RNS arrived.




As i now say with BLVN Agna. What is done is done, all O&G E&P's go through the tempered stages, it is the nature of the beast but now the ending of a long spell of negative market sentiment should herald a new chapter in both FOGL, RKH and BLVN who have all suffered similar distain from the retail community and spec traders.

Looking forward to what i believe or rather 'hope' will be the ultimate proving up of a world class system and i also believe that both FOGL and RKH are still currently trading at a discount.

[agnabeya] 12/11/2014 14:41

I don't think I saw your reply - LC

OK - I've had a look - what time did you post?

edit: I remember GClark25 posting a simple but true post on Toroa as a duster - but I am never sure who posters are anymore. I have no idea if this GClark is the old one or not.
That's why you shouldn't believe advice on a BB. :)

[le_commissaire] 12/11/2014 14:06

agna

I was asked to publicly comment on Gclarkes post on iii re his contact advising him to sell all Falklands stocks immediately. Have you read the post?

Luckily i have many years experience of him and BHS to last me a lifetime.

[agnabeya] 12/11/2014 13:22

Rob -I have a handful of ARG average 14p.
I sold my 9p lot (the biggest holding ) at 15p - and my 12p lot yesterday at 8.7p Not a huge amount of them, but still a loss.
I've put the cash aside to buy more FOGL and average down there too.

Arg stated in their AGM that they can join the drilling campaign at anytime once drilling has started - that they don't have to have booked a slot before it starts.
The drilling schedule is flexible.
All good and well - but the falling oil price will make it harder for them to get a farm in partner.
Of course the second drill is Chatham I believe - and success there will prove success for ARG too and help their negotiations.
Failure at Chatham would be a terrible blow for ARG.
Without it they won't get a farm in deal done.

I find that strategy for ARG a bit risky to hold and wait.
You are dependent on another company's drilling a common target - and no matter how good the COS - you can never be certain of a strike.
ARG have nothing but acreage with SD to recommend it right now - they need to have a proxy success at Chatham too, or I think they'd be well and truly stuffed.

[robpuguk] 12/11/2014 12:43

Hey Agna, did you stay in ARG?

Would be so good if all of them could be involved in the drilling this time round!

[agnabeya] 12/11/2014 12:38

OFTC - Thank you. :) Nice to see familiar faces.

I'm not sure at the moment about the FI.
I always thought PMO couldn't deliver the deal to RKH - and that worried me as what is bad (even temporarily) for the one tends to affect them all.
PMO release results tomorrow.
I'll be watching what they say about their commitment to RKH.

I am getting very interested though - and have the readies ready to get into FOGL.
Money follows the rig - and it's not that long until the rig starts to mobilise for the FI.
Time to consider a position if you want in for that part of the action IMHO.

I think we have time yet.

I notice today that the volume in RKH and FOGL shows that buyers are mopping up the sells.
I'm not as yet - but hope to before too long. :)

[out for the count] 12/11/2014 11:12

Welcome back agna... another sign that the good times are on the way (again)!