Falkland O&G Share Discussion Threads

[hans christian andersen] 21/8/2014 23:18

OFF TOPIC - shafaq

Beware of this poster. Made this one on STG board about the rig arriving at Horse Hill (It still hasn't). Has totally miss-led those who don't know any better. I have never wished ill of anyone on this site until now and hope he reaps all he has sown and more. DYOR but I would not believe a word he says.

shafaq 18 Aug'14 - 13:27 - 2348 of 2376 3 0

Just returned from my visit to the site and surprise! surprise! guess what I saw!!!!!
Will put pics here tonight or tmrrw and my earlier spud prediction of early this week could now be thurs/Fri.
Good luck all.

[alex hawk] 21/8/2014 21:41

Just looking in and nice to see my name mentioned - a credit a huge part of my success to Purple11 and he knows that. Anywhere where purple11, shafaq & madstork has to have some potential :-)

Suprisingly i am not yet in as had funds tied up elsewhere so expected to be paying a higher price now, 24-25p was the price to load up. When volume return after the summer this should fly and 50p target isn't a bad shout - 28p looks pivotal so a break or drop from there and I will be in.

Generally speaking i've moved away from ADVFN too much rif-raf and Twitter appears to be less time consuming and you get a view of what people are looking at/buying earlier on - recommend it c'mon get with the times folks :-p

O/T

A few others worth a look all with drilling in next 12 months - COPL, FAST & TRP have intial positions in all - FOGL & ROSE looking for entries. Besides that LEN a riskier one (anything associated with china always is) so currently on a free ride with that one.

Non-oilers SAV is my pick for H2 once the bergen deal is hopefully dropped.

[purple11] 21/8/2014 20:39

"Basically says circa 4bbln STOIP (allowing for log scale) in FOGL's north basin licenses (ie 'southern area', north basin). Presumably this is being promoted by Premier as the 'running room' for incoming farminee.

Sounds like Premier hoping to do farm down deal in Q4.

Slide 20 says Zebedee and Jayne 'low risk' and mid case success would add 230 bbls to resiource. Isobel would be a further 240.

Also a new incoming operator may be easier for FOGL to deal with on unitisation discussions. And they describe the prospects as extensions of Sea lion fans now anyway.

In any event the incoming partner (and may be operator) will be giving quite a whirl to the southern licence area which has to be good for FOGL. One or two hits then sell it I think would be FOGL's plan."
CT By CitizenT


low risk -high value step out from seal lion/ should get the excitement going :)

[purple11] 21/8/2014 20:36

From Premier half yr results today

OPERATIONAL REVIEW



Falkland Islands

Key milestones have been achieved towards the development of the Sea Lion oil field. The functional specification and basis of design for the tension leg platform (TLP) was finalised and the front end engineering design (FEED) contract was awarded in July and is now progressing. Preparations for four well exploration campaign in 2015 are under way and a rig contract was signed in June.



Development

Sea Lion pre-development activities have made good progress following the selection of a phased development scheme involving a TLP at the end of 2013. Based on the latest subsurface studies completed in the first half, recoverable reserves for the Phase 1 of the Sea Lion development are estimated at 308 million barrels (mmbbls). There is an upside of an additional 60 mmbbls if the Chatham well shows that a gas cap is not present in the western side of the field. Phase 2 of development is currently estimated to recover 87 mmbbls of reserves and will be optimised to incorporate any additional exploration success from the Zebedee and Jayne East wells, scheduled to be drilled in 2015.



The functional specification and basis of design for the TLP was finalised during the first half and invitations to tender were issued for FEED. Following evaluation of the proposals from the engineering companies, the TLP FEED contract was awarded in July to Amec who will be responsible for the overall management of the FEED and topsides design. Amec have sub-contracted the work for the hull to Houston Offshore Engineering and the rig design to RDS. The FEED contract for the subsea umbilicals, risers and flowlines (SURF) was awarded in August while the FEED contract for the floating storage and offloading unit (FSO) will be tendered for award in the fourth quarter. A geophysical survey over the planned TLP/FSO location was completed in the first half and a geotechnical survey will be performed later this year for which a vessel has already been mobilised. Both survey results will be incorporated into the FEED process, which is expected to take approximately 12 months to complete.



Market engagement for the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of the TLP has commenced with the project team in discussion with global engineering companies and directly with fabrication yards in the Middle East, Asia and the United States. Feedback to date has been positive. In conjunction with this, Premier has been assessing the possibility of securing export credit financing, a competitive source of funds for the project, and initial indications are encouraging.



Given Premier's current 60 per cent level of equity the group is seeking a suitable partner for the development project.



Exploration

Preparations for the 2015 Falkland Islands exploration and appraisal campaign are well under way. A drilling rig for the campaign has been secured with a rig contract and rig sharing agreement signed in June. All major service contracts have been tendered with bids evaluated and contracts in the process of being awarded. A temporary dock facility, which will support the multi-operator exploration campaign, is currently being installed at Stanley.



The exploration drilling programme is expected to commence in the second quarter of 2015 and will consist of at least four wells targeting multiple stacked fans in licences PL004 and PL032. Options are available for further wells in the event of success. The first two wells in the programme will target the highest impact prospects, Zebedee and Isobel Deep. Zebedee is a low risk step out from the Sea Lion field, while Isobel Deep is designed to de-risk a new fan complex of Sea Lion scale in the south of PL004. The rig is then scheduled to drill two wells for another operator before returning to the North Falkland Basin. The third well will test the Jayne East prospect to the south east of the Sea Lion field, while the fourth well will test the presence of a gas cap on the western flank of Sea Lion and the deeper potential in the Chatham exploration prospect.



In February, the farm-in was completed by Premier and Rockhopper in PL004a and PL004c, which contains the Isobel Deep and Jayne East prospects among others, resulting in Premier's equity in both licences increasing to 36 per cent.

[shafaq] 21/8/2014 14:38

Not to mention hur.

[shafaq] 21/8/2014 14:29

PurpleYes Alex will definitely be coming on board soon.He made some brilliant calls while back and made a lot of money in calling ukog and msmn.

[purple11] 21/8/2014 14:07

trp blew early too from 1.3 .I guess alex will be getting in soon.he was looking the other week. just need to sit tight for a while.

[shafaq] 21/8/2014 13:57

Let's hope purple but sometimes you get this feeling that this will do really well in the next few months.My target is also like 50-60p before spud but that can come very quickly just like when I bought oex at 2.5p in august and was expecting 4p by March but by September or October it surpassed that and started selling in batches across 5p/6p and so on.So expecting the same here.

[purple11] 21/8/2014 13:35

good to see you here shafaq,hoping for a repeat performance of great calls like last season,summers drawing to a close ,time to get busy soon atb

[shafaq] 21/8/2014 13:28

Bought another batch of 38k to add to my existing 32k but not showing at all!.Accumulating at this juncture average now 26.25.

[purple11] 21/8/2014 13:19

superb,that target seems to be on everyones lips and I agree-the mms as well as the funds know it and will take advantage and let it play out.

just a question of letting the 3d roll out and let a couple of months pass now.

im looking at taking @£20k at 50 at present but am hopefully going to add another tranche.if all goes well it should be the last piece I need to get an extension up on my house next year so got a good feeling about all of it:) gl

[themadstork] 21/8/2014 13:04

Indeed. My target is approx 50p while the rig is in transit. Conservative, but that would be approx £75k profit.

[purple11] 21/8/2014 12:59

it may retest or not,but either way getting some important energy into it to form the inevitable breakout. best price as the rig rolls into town,as always

xmas only a few months away now,and 3d will be out soon.

hold and accumulate on any weakness now.im looking for another tranche too.gl

[themadstork] 21/8/2014 12:59

Close at or above 28p would be super bullish. Kind of hope it doesn't happen though because while I am fully loaded, my sister still requires a few more tranxhes!

[purple11] 21/8/2014 12:43

nice:) gla

[purple11] 19/8/2014 18:12

hxxp://en.mercopress.com/2014/08/19/falklands-pricing-for-valuation-of-hydrocarbons-will-follow-norwegian-model

[shanieboy01] 18/8/2014 17:01

Thanks Peter and stork. I have not decided if I should average down but I think I will. I don't want a large portfolio anymore (2 babies). If I can get some of my fogl/des loss back I will be happy. I think this will be approx 50p at spud.

[undervalued companies] 18/8/2014 09:55

Complete loon you are truly and this from a person who held through the last two fogl duffers to sub 30p. Not to mention countless duffers in desire and new world oil.

If you recall sold 70p pre duffers.

[trulyscrumptious] 18/8/2014 09:27

Ouch, the share price was around the 250p mark. Our superhero sold not a single share!
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chrisoil 2 Jul'10 - 12:21 - 10694 of 27329 0 0

Thanks Robbo

Hope you enjoyed the action over the past few days - great find well done.

Thanks also to you and Durby who believed in fogl like me and did not sell one share !
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What was his prediction for the sp?
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chrisoil 2 Jul'10 - 13:26 - 10714 of 27329 0 0

Wait for my £10 -£11 to £15 Rutter.
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Err... what about 25-30p? This goes to show that anyone new to these shares should ignore all these 'prophets', this one comes as chrisoil, Falklands, undervalued companies, Crisoil Twitter. It would be better if he deserted this thread now so we can get back to some proper posts.

[trulyscrumptious] 18/8/2014 09:04

Luckily this merry prophet knows people in the know at the Times who confirmed it was not a duster, or was that just a fib from him?
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chrisoil 30 Jun'10 - 22:48 - 10483 of 27327 0 0

Just enjoying all the posts today.

Already noticed some posters on here know, so no harm to tell you out of trading hours.

From sources i know funds are buying everything they can in small trades, look at both borders and fogl trades .

RAB sold off far less around 1% for derisking, they were intending 5% held off due to good news.

But more importantly can confirm hydrocarbons have been found its no duster.

I have contacts within the Times and confirm oil has been found. As my investigation post stated before both my brokers and the city confirm more than rumours.

I personally do not know what quanity, if its commercial etc, no mention of gas which i am suprised at.

Source of the times was from the Falklands.

Ps. I still do not know everything yet but enough to feel very excited

Increased my holdings today.
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He even increased his holding!!!

[trulyscrumptious] 18/8/2014 09:02

Or, another classic...



I personally do not know the full facts yet but Toroa is no duster, whether its a discovery of gas or oil only the RNS will tell. BHP has a hand in when the full facts are known.
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And just before he lost his shirt... (he even knows everyone who lives in the Falklands.)


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chrisoil 29 Jun'10 - 13:51 - 10327 of 27327 0 0

Minty 85% chance that this is a duster according to sources on this BB

Which sources ? derampers who have no money in fogl or N.F.B. investors who do not want Toroa to be a success.

Not getting into individual posters but been around advfn for years and i know who lives on the Falklands and who does not.
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And... here he is about to hit the jackpot, but oh, it was a duster!

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chrisoil 29 Jun'10 - 14:49 - 10343 of 27327 0 0

Hangman 1.7 BILLION mean or 850,000 mean to fogl Just on Toroa

P50 just a bit lower. 1.4 billion 700,000 P50 fogl just on Toroa

better than 10ps worth in the N.F.B.

And i do not want to work the numbers out or i will have a heart attack !

[greyingsurfer] 18/8/2014 08:47

I only want to get my loss back. Is this a good idea.

Not a great approach to investment! Whatever you've lost on FOGL you've lost. Starting from here the only question to ask yourself is - where's the best place to invest your £2.5k. FOGL is a possibility, and may get you a decent return on that cash - but just because you already hold shares in the company is no very strong reason why that should be where you make any new investment.

Peter

[trulyscrumptious] 18/8/2014 08:47

Follow shareprophets at your peril. Here's a merry prophet in 2010 with a prediction just before the FOGL duster!


chrisoil 28 Jun'10 - 13:30 - 10097 of 27325 0 0

News coming through looks like a big find................................

lets see the RNS for proof

Borders UP to- confirmation of a discovery !

[themadstork] 16/8/2014 19:42

I think it's entirely possible you'll recover most if not all of your loss. Barring unforeseen disaster, FOGL will go much higher over the coming months.