Frp Advisory Share Discussion Threads

[opodio] 22/12/2016 21:48

this is cheap and nasty for a reason

th reason is that it is fuct

[pj 1] 22/12/2016 20:48

Maybe if the share price is down another 50% in 3 months, they will be really chuffed, or much worse to come?. Where is the Business model?

[sportbilly1976] 22/12/2016 11:05

425k sold by HH on behalf of clients (200k and 225k trades from Tuesday at 13.75/13.875)

I bet they're chuffed :)

[sportbilly1976] 21/12/2016 09:21

someone stake building perhaps? plenty of 100k buys flowing through

[cynicalsam1] 20/12/2016 11:46

The trade will be someone who knows a bit more than the average punter. I'm not a holder of this stock, but knowing the sector and the impact the change in small claims limit would have in this sector, I am pretty certain someone has Fairpoint in there sights. I think the new year will bring an announcement. My money is on NAH, a lot of synergy here and they desperately need to change their model if they are to survive.

[sportbilly1976] 20/12/2016 11:11

the 357k trade imo could be rns'd (£50k not your average pi)

[sportbilly1976] 20/12/2016 11:11

possibly, although the PW was for 'less than previously forecast' not 'no profits'

[3800] 20/12/2016 11:00

There is nothing wrong with Optimism sportbilly1976 BUT from the 9th Dec trading statment "the full year results for the Group for the year ended 31 December 2016 are likely to be materially below market expectations" I don't think that " materially below" will be 15% less as no further guidance was given apart from no dividend, my guess is no profit and a rights issue to sure up the balance sheet. I hope I'm wrong for the sake of the long suffering shareholders of which I am no longer one having sold at the first possible opportunety after the profits warning.
3800

[imranawan] 20/12/2016 10:57

I think PBT is likely to fall more than 15% from last years figures sportbilly. The fact they've cut the divi, after re-iterating their commitment to the divi in the September webinar, combined with the debt levels has meant the market has punished the company. Given the fact that the PW was issued late on a Friday, when they thought no one would be watching, has meant sentiment is now very negative.

[sportbilly1976] 20/12/2016 10:24

From Equity Dev's September note:

Summary forecasts
Year end 31 Dec 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E
Adj Pre-tax, £’000s 8,051 9,255 10,464 7,750 8,770
EPS, p 15.0 17.2 19.3 13.7 14.5
PER 6.8 5.9 5.3 7.5 7.0

Even if the update factors in a 15% fall from last year's PBT then we're looking at profit > market cap

Given the buys coming through this am, ahead of the FY close it wouldn't surprise me to see a Director or two buying.

[dlku] 18/12/2016 15:21

Black hole needs filing

[arthur_lame_stocks] 18/12/2016 14:14

The problem is these were good value based on market guidance for the full year, yet for a long time the share price has been telling the truth and the company haven't.

[az4hr] 16/12/2016 16:43

Bought these at 145p mind bogglingly nd incredibly thought they were good value now down 90% it's hard to believe I ever thought these were good value a lesson never when u think something is cheap stop nd slap urself

[kop202] 16/12/2016 15:47

Please put us out of our misery....go bust then I can forget about this wretched share

[sportbilly1976] 16/12/2016 15:35

Does anyone have the previous guidance for PBT for 2016?

[blueball] 16/12/2016 15:15

9p would be my target.

[fillipe] 16/12/2016 14:49

Woodworm in the floorboards...into the 13's now.....where next?

f

[sportbilly1976] 15/12/2016 11:32

15p the floor? seems to be holding so far

[little beaker] 13/12/2016 13:29

I wouldn't invest in this at any price personally, each to their own though

[cynicalsam1] 12/12/2016 22:54

Any thoughts on this now being a takeover target? Maybe an NAH would be able to accelerate their strategy buying a law firm processor, it has WIP, historical relationship with Colemans, can pass work through to bush from the Simpson Millar business. It's a cheap business right now.

[larva] 12/12/2016 21:52

is this going bust

[muffinhead] 12/12/2016 21:45

Picked up on this sorry situation from PS twitter feed on Friday... personally don't like what the company does

Todays volume a lot greater than Friday, which was to be expected. Directors that release bad news on a Friday afternoon, need to be castrated. However despite todays volume (only 5% of company shares), overall there are still a lot of trapped shareholders, so expecting any rallies to be sold. There is a lot of intangibles on the balance sheet, maybe exceptional losses to come from writedowns


PS twitter had a link few months ago on post profit warning share performance and glad to see he took his own advice

[sportbilly1976] 12/12/2016 15:32

20% spread??

[speedsgh] 12/12/2016 15:23

Graham Neary's comments on FRP added to last Friday's SCVR...



Fairpoint (LON:FRP)

Share price: 20.5p (-61%)
No. shares: 46.7m
Market cap: £9.6m

Trading Update

Late afternoon profit warning from Fairpoint.

My previous comments on this company have been completely wrong. Most recently, in September, I expressed a tentatively bullish point of view that the company would probably pull through its various difficulties.

This warning signals to us the opposite: the company is performing poorly and with potentially serious financial consequences.

In a nutshell, the legal services division has been performing below plan and the closure of the debt management division is taking longer than expected to result in reduced overheads.

Consequently:

As a result of the factors noted above, the full year results for the Group for the year ended 31 December 2016 are likely to be materially below market expectations. The Board is formulating plans to mitigate the potential impact on the trading performance and financial position of the Group going forward, including the suspension of future dividends.

I previously suggested that the company would be better off if it tackled its debt rather than continuing dividend payments, but I don't take any pleasure in seeing it now forced into taking this action!

At June, the company had a net debt position of £15.6 million.

At that time, Fairpoint said that it had "£8.6 million in cash and undrawn lending facility." Based on the cash on the balance sheet at the time, I estimate (and I could be wrong) that the company had used up c. £20.5 million of its £25 million total bank facility.

That doesn't leave much margin for error, especially if things are not going according to plan. Today's statement leaves investors in the dark as to how serious the situation might be, but I'd agree that it's now prudent to price in a rescue rights issue. That would make it yet another debt-fuelled acquisition spree which ended badly for shareholders.

[buffetteer] 12/12/2016 15:00

Debt- they are likely to have net debt of £18.5m and have a facility of £25m .The debt will likely reduce as the earn-out to Colemans is reduced .