Frp Advisory Share Discussion Threads

[sportbilly1976] 19/9/2016 13:03

a 10% fall on the word of one person?

[glaws2] 19/9/2016 12:58

Doesn't start until 13.30

[spob] 19/9/2016 12:58

just Simon Thompson saying sell

[sportbilly1976] 19/9/2016 12:55

Anything said on the webinar to cause the drop?

[penpont] 15/9/2016 17:52

Tentatively positive comment from Paul Scott on Stockopedia, concluding:

'With a low PER, and a very good dividend yield, there is some attraction to this share in my view, so I'll probably pick up a few shares, if the webinar on Monday is reassuring.'

[shauney2] 15/9/2016 13:06

Could be a good turnround situation here.

Eventually all the costs of getting rid of the debt management side of the business will work through.Then all thats left is a safer legal services business all be it a lower margin one.Nice dividends to be picked up along the way.

[hannahh] 15/9/2016 11:46

If you would like to hear the management of Fairpoint, present the interim results and answer investors questions will we be hosting a webinar on Monday 19th September at 1.30pm.

In order to register please go to:

Thanks,
The Equity Development team

[az4hr] 15/9/2016 10:41

Terrible company can't believe iv got money sucked into here u never stop making mistakes

[az4hr] 15/9/2016 10:26

Realli why

[spob] 15/9/2016 10:15

topped up this morning 91p

[arthur_lame_stocks] 27/8/2016 17:48

Well I bought a few because I think it's been marked down too heavily despite the falling profits.

[carcosa] 21/7/2016 11:42

Adam, I knew I was supposed to be looking at this today; thanks for the 'reminder' Was working on this today:

From the trading update we know:
Revenues 'in excess' of 20% compared to prior H1
1.2 x 22.9m = 27.5m expected

We also know that Legal Services represent 75% of revenue:
0.75 x 27.5 = 20.6m

It's reasonable to assume PBT margins have improved so assuming 16.5% margin (12.4%) that gives a pre-tax H1 profit of 3.4m

We also know that DMP is expected to break even i.e. PBT of zero

We also know that overall PBT is expected to be ~4.3m so we can ascribe 0.9m PBT between DMP and Claims Management

So headline adjusted H1 figures are likely to show:
Group revenues 27.5m and PBT of 4.3m

Crystal ball Looking toward full year then:

Legal Services Revenue 42-45m and PBT 7.3m
IVA PBT 0.8m
DMP Revenue PBT 0
Claims Mangmt 0.8m
Giving a total of 8.9m PBT


Compared to the analysts forecasts prior to the Trading Update:
(first column is analysts and the second column is mine)

Revenue 65.8 57.5 (-13%)
PBT 11.2 8.95
PAT 8.9 7.16
EPS 19.5 15.7 (-19.5%)

P/E 5.1 6.4 at 100p

Which, is there was noting else happening I would say is quite good. However, add in the impairments previously announced and the initial news from the trading Update then its all sounding a bit negative. The company is transitioning to purely legal services and whilst that is ongoing, collecting the 6%+ dividend yield is no bad reward. Long term shareholders are likely to be okay but medium term...

[imranawan] 21/7/2016 10:59

Thanks for your thoughts. Equity Dev have issued a note (available on their website but you need to register) this am and revised EPS for 2016 is forecast to be 15.6p, with a divi of 7.2p and EPS for 2017 of 16.6p with a divi of 7.6p. I hope the current share price is nearer the bottom and has priced this in.

Did you sell out for a loss btw Adam, or break-even? I've held since the beginning of 2015, and hindsight should have sold out in the autumn, shortly after the Autumn statement. Hindsight's a wonderful thing, but 2016 has been a poor year for me.

[adamb1978] 21/7/2016 09:43

Contrary to my post above, I spent an hour or so going through the figures yesterday pm and decided to sell out. Reasons are:
- the DMP business is now worth zero based on the comments in the TU
- the IVA business will be producing declining profits given they're not marketing it any more, to turnover from it will continue to decline
- the legal business should have done more than the 2x last year which they said given the acquisitions. Its also not an easily scalable business (a lawyer can only work a certain amount of hours per day) so you need to keep adding bodies to grow it.

Based on the above, I think they'll do perhasp £55m turnover and 13p - 14p EPS for the year so a long way below market forecasts. Note that they didnt talk about market expectations for the full year in the TU, just the H1 expectations. They're therefore trading on aroun d8x my figures, so not a high multiple but then again FRP have never traded on a decent multiple and the impending profits warning will only send this lower. I can see 80p on the cards by year end, though at that point it starts to look interesting again

All the best for those who keep the faith!!
Adam

[bamboo2] 20/7/2016 20:32

Bulkowski's stats worked well.

[adamb1978] 20/7/2016 12:18

Given how the share price has tanked, a flat H1 year on year isnt a bad result. The company is now trading on such a low multiple that its implicitly factoring in a sharp falls in profits. The c6% yield is covered 2x - 3x so is rock solid. This isnt an exciting hod, but I'm struggling to see much downside from here

[kingcashbilly] 20/7/2016 11:24

Panmure broker note:

17%+ cut to forecasts. Exiting DMP sector. New FD named.

FRP – the consumer professional services provider – has issued a trading update for 1H16 noting PBT will be flat LfL at £4.1m. Management has decided to exit the DMP sector “due to regulatory changes”, causing a reduction to our PBT forecasts of 20%+ for 2016 and for 2017.

[adamb1978] 04/6/2016 21:54

Would be buying plenty more at 100p!

The way I look at the current price is this: trading clearly isnt crash hot within a couple of the company's businesses however thats more than priced in. Even if you were to assume that they didn't hit their forecasts for the year and only did say 15p EPS, its on a PE of 8x. So whilst I'd usually bale out with the sort of weak trading outlook which FRP last highlighted, I dont see much downside from here for people who are looking beyond the next 6 months

[bamboo2] 04/6/2016 20:43

fwiw, if the chart is showing a H&S, Bulkowski would have a target of approx 100

[speedsgh] 03/6/2016 20:31

Offer now 120p. Prospective yield 6.0%.

[speedsgh] 01/6/2016 14:04

Only small position at present. Am gradually reducing exposure to AIM listed companies but am tempted to make an exception here. Also holding GTLY.

[imranawan] 01/6/2016 13:42

Do you already have a position speedsgh? Am a holder and tempted to add also

[speedsgh] 01/6/2016 13:34

Beginning to look tempting. Now yielding 5.8% based on DPS 7.20p for the current FY.