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Fairpoint Group Share Discussion Threads
Showing 701 to 725 of 725 messages
|From John Rosier's Private investor’s diary on the IC website...
"...The other stock to cause damage was Fairpoint (FRP), which has nearly completed the transition from a debt servicing company to a legal services group. It fell 22.6 per cent during September, with most of the fall coming after the half-year results on the 15th. Those results led to earnings estimates for the full year being reduced by around 12 per cent. It said it expected the second half profitability to be in line with the first half’s and as well as maintaining the dividend it reassured on its commitment to paying a rising dividend in the future. On current consensus forecasts the shares are valued at 5.0 times 2016 earnings, falling to 4.7 times 2017 with a prospective 2016 dividend yield of 9.9 per cent.
Clearly the market does not believe these figures. There is a risk that 2016 earnings estimates will be reduced again if a recovery in its conveyancing business, which is dependent on UK housing turnover, fails to materialise. At current levels I think the share price reflects the disappointment from earnings downgrades this year rather than the company’s potential. Although it is difficult to see a catalyst in the short term, it will not need much good news to get the share price moving..."|
|New Equity Development note released today...
Whiplash reforms parked - HTTPS://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/company/?company=Fairpoint+Group&c=3ADO
Press coverage this morning states that a previous source of concern over
group earnings may have gone away. This related to changes, proposed by
George Osborne in his Autumn statement last year, to reform the UK’s
compensation culture around minor motor accident injuries, specifically the
operation of whiplash claims.
These proposed reforms, which sought to ended the right to cash compensation for minor whiplash injuries have apparently been shelved. If they had been implemented they were expected to cut average motor insurance premiums by up to £50 pa.
We had previously argued that the risks to Fairpoint had been overplayed. Specifically, our 19 September update:
Noted that the implementation timetable was well behind the critical path for a scheduled April 2017 start
Reaffirmed our view that Fairpoint’s legal processing centre gave it a competitive advantage which, post reform, should put it in a position to manage the legal work generated under any new structure at low cost.
According to press reports this morning these reforms have been set aside by the government, indeed the insurance industry has concluded that they will never happen.
The Ministry of Justice confirmed that the whiplash changes are not a priority but claims reforms are “not off the agenda”. According to the insurance industry the consultation is being blocked by Whitehall due to opposition from ministers and the legal profession, and the need to prioritise government time ahead of Brexit negotiations.
This reform may be revisited at some stage.
We recently adjusted our forecasts for Fairpoint in the light of their strategic decision to focus on the growth and margin opportunities in Legal Services.
On those new forecasts the prospective yield on the shares is a remarkable
10% and the PER just 5.0x …and that is for the current year to Dec 2016.|
|Wife of the MD of Simpson Millar LLP, which was acquired by Fairpoint in June 2014, has been selling. Not the greatest amount but also not the greatest vote of confidence!
Persons Discharging Manager Responsibilities (PDMR) Notification - HTTP://www.investegate.co.uk/fairpoint-group-plc--frp-/eqs/persons-discharging-manager-responsibilities--p---/20161011102001EHJFB/
EDIT - sorry Sportbilly. You beat me to it by a minute :o)|
|Mrs Watson sold a few more shares, 25k on the 7th and just under 3k yesterday|
|did tenon go bust? is this liketenon? some of the over paid horses will leave soon enuf and sell their shares|
|I wish there were a few director buys, but I think the reason for todays rise is down to Paul Scotts comments in an interview with IG.|
|I wonder if the 71k trade is a Director purchase...new CFO started recently, might be his opening buy?|
|The market is pricing them for a life expectancy of less than 5 years - really ?
The issue is the nasty surprises they keep dumping on us . Seems the business they're in a volatile and not predictable ( soft conveyancing,personal injury new regs) . That's my main problem How can you trust any forecasts ? That's my issue . The management have little skin in the game but seem honest and competent.If I could believe them I would pile in . I'll see if they buy lots of shares themselves first.|
|As a lawyer I looked back through their acquisitions. In my book they paid a crazy price. Wafer thin profit margins for a law firm. Remember law firms are a people business and people can move.Yes its not a bad business model. Value at about 30p|
|In freefall on a strong day in the market . Is the remaining business this bad ?|
|crazily good value imo.|
|6.5% on 50k volume go figure|
|It's the future impairments that are of concern. However, now that people are selling out at a low (recently historical) share price and mentioning so on BB's then perhaps that's a buy indication ;-)|
|Even at 10p eps it's on a pe of less than 8|
|I sold out this morning. Good luck to all who continue to hold.|
|If you believe they will achieve 13.7p earnings this year then they're trading on less than 6x . Clearly the market doesn't trust/ believe this company. However, we do know that the legal business is pretty steady,has some unique value in its low cost process ability , debt will fall as IVA receipts come in and the cash generative legal business pays off the debt . As Buffett always says you make money when you buy and now seems a good time as no- one else is . I reckon it's at least 50% undervalued and we will see it rise as the debt reduces and the legal business becomes the only subsidiary.|
"If Simon Thompson says sell why do people react"
i would ask how should people react? i sometimes think his Sell recommendations are a good Buy signal. they tend to identify the point of maximum pessimism|
|I know what you mean Gostevie, but I don't see the logic in selling out once it goes xd, as the share price will drop by the amount of the interim divi. If you were going to sell out I would have done so sooner.|
|If Simon Thompson says sell why do people react. He seems to get quite a few companies totally wrong.|
|Still holding but quite tempted to get out after they go xd tomorrow. There is still value here IMHO but how long will it take to come out?|
|holding - yes, buying too|
|Is anyone still holding? Price grinding down slowly but surely.
Is there a timelimit for issuing RNSs re: Directors shareholding/dealing. For example the purchase was made on the 16th September, which was 12 days ago.|
|They have now also notified the purchase of 1,117 shares at 99.85p on 16/9 by Mark Fuller, Managing Director of Clear Start Partnerships Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Fairpoint Group Plc.
Notification of Transactions of Directors / Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibility and Connected Persons - HTTP://www.investegate.co.uk/fairpoint-group-plc/frp/notification-of-transactions-of-directors---per---/20160928131001ERNJX/
Chicken feed but he would have been better off waiting all the same!|
|Spouse of Peter Watson, Managing Director of Simpson Millar LLP, a wholly owned subsidiary of Fairpoint Group Plc, has sold 13,889 shares at 89.4p.
Notification of Transactions of Directors / Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibility and Connected Persons - HTTP://www.investegate.co.uk/fairpoint-group-plc/frp/notification-of-transactions-of-directors---per---/20160928112311EGAWR/
Whilst not the largest amount, it's certainly not the best vote of confidence in view of where the share price currently languishes! Would expect notification rns from larger instis in due course as would seem to be a large seller in the background continually forcing the price down.|
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