|Rob, The trade of just shy of 1.3m is matched by four others to the same amount, it looks like a stake being placed at mid market price.
You asked a good question the other day, perhaps schroders could provide the answer.|
|Regards the recent conversion of Euro's to £, the £4.7m would take a further 2 million shares out of circulation if returned to shareholders.
|The voloume says 2.5 million which is 34% of the shares in issue|
|1.3 million is a very large trade for eret, is it the karoo holding being sold?|
|What does the insurance policy cover out of interest|
|n1mgn, The reason that more cash has not been returned is that until potential tax liabilities are resolved, they may need it.
The company alluded to that a while ago, commenting that the issues could take years to resolve and restrict our ability to return funds.
I see the switch of cash to £ sterling as a positive in that respect, if they expected to have an imminent tax bill in euros then they would not be switching it.
As previously commented I sold out of this recently, mainly due to disappointment in the price achieved for the Spanish assets, I had expected a sale to a Spanish socimi at a better price. I was wrong, but had the good luck to have a surprise lift in the nav at half year, which gave a decent exit point.
The market has a habit of making my workings look daft.
|thank for your reply Flyfisher , of course if it was that easy to make money everyone would be on it .
My opinion is that a large proportion of the cash will be returned soon , i expect another 35% of the shares at 235 . if i am right then my holding would bring the average down to circa £1.10 ish if you bought around here . I think the property value in Nice is on the books at a price the company believes it could trade sell it as is. My personal view is that this the probable outcome .
as for the tax situations , you are probably a lot better qualified than myself , but i do think that the fund managers would have taken very good advice on this .
I guess the different of opinions is what makes a market . we will have to see how this plans out. But i very much appreciate your opinions.
|Hi flyfisher - could you please explain a bit more on the potential "compulsory purchase order" and the French law surrounding that? At what price does that typically materialise?|
|No brainer, my goodness it is anything but that.
1. Try to sell a listed building
2. Try to get planning permission for a listed building
3. Local mayor having ''ring fenced the plot'', whatever that means
4. Planning change of use, potentially not achievable until 2018
5. 13 subsidiaries to close with associated sets of accounts
6. Issues in closing down some of the german subsids, there was a note in the accounts a couple of years ago that observed potential liabilities of up to E 9.8m, which are unlikely to occur and have not been provisioned, but could occur.
After the sale of german properties in the past, some of the holding subsids have not been closed, but have been merged into another subsid. ie the tax problem associated with the sold property has not been resolved, but merged with another.
What is the cost of an international tax accountant / lawyer to resolve these issues
If they can resolve the tax issues and close the subsids at a modest cost and perhaps get planning change of use for a hotel, then yes I see good potential.
However, what if the costs of tax issue resolution are high and the local council put a compulsory purchase order on the property. Or worse still, some listed building society get involved in slowing the process.
|I had a nibble yesterday after the news , just going to buy small amounts on any dips , The announcement suggests to me , they will very likely be another buy aback at 235 soon , and I guess 40 / 50 % of stock , Easy numbers means anything I buy now and get say half out on buy back at 235 , brings my price on other half down to below a pound , Nav I doubt will change much in short term and long term if anything potentially a lot higher . My cash in the bank earns nothing , so I see this this as pretty simple trade , just how long my cash tied up for . Even if it's 4 years ( highly likely it will be a lot sooner as they want this closed ) 40% on u money with this risk profile a bit of a no brainier. I just hope I get a chance to buy some cheaper !! Good luck everyone|
|Could it be yet another distribution on the way|
|Well my guesstimate for working capital numbers were out by a considerable margin. I'll need to see the next results (if there are any!) to see why.
NAV should still be c. 235p/share but there's a lower ratio of cash/market cap than I'd guesstimated.
The comments re La Gaude are impossible to decipher IMO
"This office property is vacant and likely to have a higher value as an alternative use"
"The development of this site is in large part dependent on planning changes that may come through in 2017/2018. Such changes are uncertain. The Board and its manager
meet local officials, planning authorities, architects and advisers on a regular basis, however there are costs to maintaining the empty site (insurance, rates, security and similar) of circa €700,000 per annum. We are considering a number of options for the site however the sale of La Gaude, its timing, and the eventual realisation amount are uncertain."
So final proceeds could be higher or lower than current NAV but we can only guess IMO. So I've sold some more (pretty much locking in a certain ultimate profit on the trade) and kept a tiny few in case we get lucky.
Your thinking was impeccable flyfisher. Well done.|
|latest redemption money just arrived in my TD account|
|Don't rely on my numbers. It's impossible to be precise because we don't know everything (eg what was held in what currency at particular dates). Suggest you do own spreadsheet to examine the ups and downs.|
|thank you ,
it will be interesting to see the interims next week , personally i hoping it dips to 170 and then load in , with a minimuim NAV at 235 that 305 return , at worst case 2 yrs , but more than likely this will be done and dusted by xmas , even if they get rid of la gaude at Nav with a carry .
could be interesting
good luck all|
|n1mgn I'm going by eezy's calculations which look about right to me. Go back thru the previous results and the disposals, and subtract the payout so far.
I defo see another big redemption at 135p. They will take stock and decide how much they want to keep as a buffer but I'd think £5 million at least.
La Gaude was valued at E40 million before so who knows how much this asset could be worth.|
|Indeed fly. I was surprised I could sell some post red at 200+p.
The discount is still reasonable and there's a lot of cash making up that NAV.
Clearly there are risks but I'm pretty happy with the risk/reward with what I have left.|
How Do you arrive at 13.6 m of net working capital / cash ?
this is the figure i am very keen to work out ?
thank you in advance|
|"My spreadsheet says selling at 188p is selling at a market cap of £14.5m v NAV of £18.8m (including £13.6m of net working capital (mostly cash))."
I think there will be another redemption before the end of the year. They do not need to sit on all these funds. In liquidation mode. NAV of 235p and showing 185p to sell. No thanks!|
|I agree flyfisher
sold my remaining today also at 188p
personally would like to buy back around 145-150
as you say, many moons before La Gaude decision|
remaining shares sold today 188p
after the 2 recent redemptions 13.33% @225p and then 49% @235p (44.2% remaining)
looking to buy back at a suitable discount to remaining assets allowing for risk
no council decision on La Gaude before 2018|
|Interesting flyfisher. I've sold some post last redemption and kept some. It's tricky.
My spreadsheet says selling at 188p is selling at a market cap of £14.5m v NAV of £18.8m (including £13.6m of net working capital (mostly cash)).
Clearly cash dwindles from here as there's no income (but I guess pretty slowly unless they "do something" with La Gaude).
Lots of variables, La Gaude, wind-up costs, exchange rates etc. I think risk/reward is still good here, tho obv not as good as prior to recent redemptions.
At your "I thought it would fall to" 165p price market cap £12.7m. Seems unlikely (tho perfectly possible if La Gaude white elephant and/or unforeseen wind-up costs).
Just that possibility that la Gaude might be worth much more than stated current NAV that keeps me interested! I'm happy to wait a year or two to find out.|
|Redemption payment received today with H/L.
That marks an exit for me, having sold the residue in the market in recent days.
I expected it to fall back to about 165p after the last redemption and was pleasantly surprised that it held up.
La gaude could well surprise to the upside, but I do not like the heavy influence that the local council have on future use, or that conversion to residential use cannot be considered until 2018.
They also seem to be having trouble closing down the german subsidiaries, with potential tax issues having been party mitigated by an insurance contract, it is difficult to put a timescale on the final outcome.