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EGU European Gold

807.50
0.00 (0.00%)
24 Apr 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
European Gold LSE:EGU London Ordinary Share CA2987741006 COM SHS NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 807.50 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 807.50 GBX

European Gold (EGU) Latest News

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European Gold (EGU) Discussions and Chat

European Gold Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
26/5/201315:0511m oz + of European Gold1,004
08/8/200714:18European Goldfields152

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European Gold (EGU) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 12/3/2012 08:35 by bangor
All my EGU have now been transferred to Eldorado Gold shares on my behalf. This crystallised solid gains since I had held for years. A pity as I wanted them longer term. For the moment I will keep ELD but still don't know much about them. I wonder if there will be enough interest for someone to start a thread?
Posted at 29/2/2012 21:00 by mcmather
EGU shares are still trading over on tsx. 28th (Feb) was initially envisaged to be the last day of trading for EGU shares on tsx. Once they are fully cancelled I suspect that the formal / full transfer (to ELD shares) will take place?
Posted at 28/2/2012 21:22 by nermil
Is anyone seeing ELD shares in their SIPP or ISA? I see my entire EGU holding as £0. With no ELD shares.

I'm with TD Waterhouse. The terms of the deal is 0.85 ELD shares for each EGU. I assume there is some delay before we see these? I am going to call TD tomorrow. Just wondering what everyone else sees now.
Posted at 19/12/2011 18:47 by nermil
You're not completely wrong kickstart. I think the premium is quite poor as well. On the 1st of December ELD was trading at around C$18.46 while EGU was down around £6.39 on the LSE. On the offer that would have valued EGU shares at around £9.80. That's a few days before the offer was made. There was clearly some leakage going on in the few days prior to the offer as ELD started tracking down and EGU started tracking up.



Even at ELD's pre offer share price that's still a significant discount to NAV of 1100p per share of EGU. A semi bad offer for EGU but a very good deal for ELD. I would expect ELD to start ticking back up again as the value of the deal from its own NAV is recognised. Its still a fair bit better than the Qataris however. The problem is credit markets are virtually frozen in the Euro Zone. EGU needed the financing to get to the gold and were hamstrung. The management at EGU may have thought this offer was better than the alternative of going cap in hand to the banks. ELD picks up a bargain. But as that stock moves back up so should EGU. Just not as high and as quickly as I might have hoped.
Posted at 19/12/2011 17:02 by mcmather
Aye - there appears to be a $75m forfeit if either party reneges on the agreement; ie any counter offer will need to be something special to incur such a penalty.

Looks like it is a waiting game but I don't think the price is 'expensive' as far as ELD is concerned and so hopefully the share price will start to head back towards the giddy heights of C$21.
Posted at 19/12/2011 16:46 by nermil
Investec note on the deal taken from FT Alphaville below. Seems to stack up with my view, ie a tad disappointing all round. Investec don't seem to expect an alternative bid. Sorry its a bit wordy but interesting.


ELD has now officially made an offer for ELD, valuing the company at
approximately 812p per share. While this appears to be a miserly 6% premium to
the closing price, it is a 25% premium to the price when first news of a potential
bid came out and a 32% premium to the 30-day VWAP at the time. This is in line
with takeover multiples in the sector (although perhaps at the lower end) and is
coincidentally exactly the same takeover premium that ELD paid for Sino Gold
(SGX.ASX), as mentioned in our previous note.
BE
The key points surrounding the offer are:
n Signed agreement, unanimously recommended by the EGU board
n 0.85 ELD shares plus C$0.0001 cash for every EGU share
n EGU shareholders will end up with 22% of ELD
n Transaction is to be through a court-approved plan of arrangement, requiring
approval from at least two-thirds of EGU shareholders. A special meeting is
expected to take place in mid-February 2012.
n The transaction also requires majority ELD shareholder approval.
n There is a break fee of C$75m, or an expense fee of up to C$30m "upon
occurrence of certain other termination events".
n No mention of a London main board listing, or a London listing at all.
BE
Investment thesis. As mentioned in our previous note, ELD is not known for
unfriendly takeovers and does not like to revise up its own bid. It likes to have a
fully recommended offer to bring to shareholders and this is what it has achieved.
While EGU is now "in play" we do not see a strong potential for an alternative bid,
given that ELD is in our view the natural acquirer of the EGU assets, given its
established presence in the region. While the bid can be seen as opportunistic,
given that we feel that EGU's share price did not fully reflect the inherent value of
the assets, it does also remove a large layer of development risk, given ELD's
strong experience in this regard.
On our NAV valuation the transaction undervalues the EGU asset. We
estimate the 1.0x P/NAV valuation of EGU's portfolio at 1100p. This allshare
deal values them at 812p. What the transaction does do for EGU
shareholders is give them an existing c.600k Au oz production base, a
strong balance sheet and technical expertise to bring the Skouries and
Olympias projects to production. The CAD$13.08/share offer is above the
$10/share Qatar Holdings paid for a 9.9% stake recently and well above the
$9/share the warrants associated with the loan deal were struck at.


And from Olivetree...A bit interesting on possible strategy on part of EGU (extending deadline by accepting ELD bid to give them till after New Year for more approaches...


European Goldfields Perspective
In Friday's note (below) we highlighted the fact that the key to valuing the projects NPVs was to determine an appropriate cost of capital. For example, one could argue that the see-through yield on the Qatari Loans was 14% after adjusting for the dilution implied value of the warrant packages.

European Goldfields Perspective
In Friday's note (below) we highlighted the fact that the key to valuing the projects NPVs was to determine an appropriate cost of capital. For example, one could argue that the see-through yield on the Qatari Loans was 14% after adjusting for the dilution implied value of the warrant packages.

Despite talking of "a number of approaches", it is curious that EGU management have so readily recommended a transaction at only a minimal premium to market – and indeed all-stock (which will trade weakly today). This can perhaps be explained by the pressing timeline though – remembering that there was a shareholder vote re the proposed Qatari financing pacakge scheduled for 22nd Dec (this Thursday). By agreeing to the Eldorado transaction, management have locked in a transaction shareholders can vote upon (it requires a 66% approval) – whilst extending the effective deadline for any interested third parties until the New Year. It is likely therefore that the market prices in some optionality of another bid – although we await further details of Blackrock's lock-up agreement.

Early indications (from the illiquid EAU AU) are that ELD CN will fall 3.5% as arbs look to hedge the deal. However, we think the longer-term the market should reward ELD for a visibly accretive transaction.
Posted at 19/12/2011 16:37 by nermil
Bit disappointing this. 0.85 for each ELD share and that makes around £7.30 for EGU based on ELD price right now. Yes mpclag its directly linked to ELD share price. Explains the drop. It seems our fortunes are now tied to ELD's, at least for the time being. Does anyone have any opinions on this company? I've been on holiday and have been trying to avoid my dire SIPP (too much a downer!).
Posted at 08/12/2011 09:21 by manics
I would think so. I'm expecting to get an understanding as soon as next week as to what value Eldorado (or "the suitors") are placing on EGU.

Remember, if all this comes to nothing....then Goldman Sachs will take EGU in the state I described above away from the AIM onto mainboard, forcing fund & institutional buy in.

So either way EGU will be somewhat higher than it is now come Feb / Mar imo.
Posted at 08/12/2011 08:59 by manics
It isn't.

Qatari deal was announced with EGU sub 600p, the deal took it to 700p we are now at 800p.

Greek permit awards however carried EGU to £10 earlier this year. EGU feel back because the market didn't think funding would be available.

So we are now at 800p;
-with full permitting
-fully funded
-with gold at $1740
-in the midst of a "bidding war" for the company


I think EGU has much further to run.
Posted at 14/1/2011 14:08 by 7bore
"ORTAC – The next European Goldfields Ltd?".


DATE...............................13.01.11
OTC SHARE SHARE PRICE.....2.21p
OTC SHARES IN ISSUE........1,734,275,487
OTC MKT CAP....................£38.3m
OTC CASH.........................approx. £4.2m
(Cash based on results for the year ending 30 September 2010 of £3.296m and OTCs 500,000 VGM shares worth around £0.9m at 180.75p/share.)

OPTIVA RESEARCH NOTE, 05 Jan 11: "ORTAC – The next European Goldfields Ltd?".



The recent Optiva note, has the heading "ORTAC – The next European Goldfields Ltd?".

European Goldfields (EGU)is an AIM listed company, and is a developer/producer with 10Moz gold in Europe. (

EGU has a current Mkt Cap of £1.7 billion (191,838,979 shares X 890p)
(

A 1Moz gold resource is a significant psychological barrier. This is the number that makes others sit up and take notice of explorers like OTC.

OTC have said they expect to announce "in excess of 1Moz" in "early January".

As a direct comparison, 1Moz is 10% of EGUs 10Moz therefore valuing 1Moz at a potential £170m. OTC has a current mkt cap of £38.3m (1,724,137,931 shares x 2.21p).This means that when OTC announce a 1Moz resource they could be potentially worth as much as £170m, or 9.86p per share.

Obviously this is not a fair comparison as EGU are already a developer/producer while OTC is still just an explorer so EGU thoroughly deserves their premium. However, it does give an idea of the potential value of a 1Moz gold resource.

There are many other "goldies" with a 1Moz gold resource, many of which are valued at around £130m - £150m thus further emphasising the potential value of a 1Moz gold resource.

Currently, using the Jan 10 "Edison" valuation for a LONDON listed company, (and updated for a gold price of $1415) then this values the gold at $502.80/Oz Measured,$107.08/Oz Indicated and $4.71/Oz Inferred.

Using this basis, then OTCs current gold "in ground" JORC of 665,800 Oz Au (220,600 Oz Measured,315,200 Oz Indicated,130,000 Oz Inferred) is worth £90.22m or 5.2p/share...and we haven't had the upgrade yet!

By definition:

MEASURED - The locations are spaced closely enough to confirm geological and grade continuity
INDICATED - The locations are too widely or inappropriately spaced to confirm geological and/or grade continuity but are spaced closely enough for continuity to be assumed.
INFERRED - Of limited or uncertain quality and reliability.

As can be seen from the above Edison valuation, anything in the INDICATED category is worth 22.73x more than Inferred and a MEASURED resource is worth a staggering 106.75x more than the "limited or uncertain quality and reliability" INFERRED !

This is exceptionally important when valuing a JORC resource. Its almost all about the quality of the resource, not just the quantity, ie the Measured & Indicated categories.

OTC has 80.9% of their resource in the all important MEASURED & INDICATED categories. This is what makes OTC stand out from most of the other explorers. The importance of this cannot be stressed enough.

For example, CNR were a stellar performer ahead of their widely anticipated maiden JORC announcement recently, racing from around 0.4p to around 10.25p. They finally announced their maiden JORC of 868,000 Oz gold. This is more than OTCs 665,800 Oz gold. However, and most importantly, 100% of the CNR JORC was in the INFERRED (of limited or uncertain quality and reliability) and only worth £2.62m or 0.53p/share. On the day of the RNS, they had a mkt cap of £50.5m at 10.25p/share but only had gold worth £2.62m or 0.53p/share. The only reason the share price didn't completely collapse to around 1p was because, in the same RNS they said they were expecting to upgrade some of that INFERRED resource to the INDICATED category within the next 3 months without any further work. If it wasn't for this single comment it would have been disastrous. Even if one assumes they could transfer 50% of their INFERRED to the INDICATED category (and thats being generous) then, when they announce the upgrade in around 3 months time, the new Edison valuation would value CNR at around £32.79m or 6.3p/share:

CNR (assuming a generous 50/50 split):
INDICATED...434,000 Oz at $107.08/Oz...$48.49m (£30.8m)...6.26p/share
INFERRED....434,000 Oz at $4.71/Oz.....$20.44m (£1.99m)...0.04p/share

Another example is HUM. HUM have a current Canadian NI 43-101 resource of 812koz gold. This is directly comparable to a JORC according to Wiki.


"The National Instrument 43-101 is broadly comparable to the Joint Ore Reserves Committee Code (JORC Code)"
"In many cases, NI 43-101 and JORC Code technical reports are considered inter-changeable"

Again, their gold of 812Koz sounds like its better than OTC's 665.8Koz gold. But because HUM do NOT have anything at all in the all important MEASURED category, then OTC actually has a far bigger value with less gold, ie OTC gold is worth £90.22m (mkt cap £38.3m at 2.21p) while HUMs gold is worth £31.58m (mkt cap of £87m). You do the maths.

Don't forget OTC also have a 5,403,200 Oz silver JORC. Again, the vast majority of OTCs silver is in the all important "Measured" & "Indicated" category.

On 12 Nov 10,Edison issued an Arian Silver update giving silver values of $13.7/oz Measured,$6.16/Oz Indicated, $0.88/Oz Inferred based on a silver price of $27.19/oz.

HOWEVER, the value of silver has now increased to $29.14/Oz, an increase of 7.2%. This gives up to date values of:

Measured....1,780,700..$14.68/Oz...$26,140,676.....£16.74m...0.97p/share
Indicated...2,742,100..$6.60/Oz...$18,097,860.....£11.59m....0.67p/share
Inferred....880,400....$0.94/Oz...$827,576......£529,971...0.03p/share

In other words, OTCs silver "in ground" alone is currently worth £28.86m or 1.67p/share...and we haven't had the upgrade yet!

But it doesn't stop there.

OTCs current "in ground" gold/silver resources are worth £119m (6.84p/share)...but they are based on only 1.2km of their 6.5km strike length at Kreminica. This is hugely important. Assuming they achieve a similar resource to the first 1.2km (and there is no reason why they couldn't)then this could result in a potential 500% increase to the Kremnica resource alone, ie £595m or 34.2p/share.

But it doesn't stop there.

In the Optiva Research Note,dated 05 Jan 11, they gave a 6 month target of 3.45p....but this was based on the CURRENT known resource at Kremnica alone.

This target did NOT include:
1.....The imminent resource upgrade.
2.....The Brazilian iron ore project
3.....The 9 gold exploration licences in eastern Slovakia.

They said that the imminent resource upgrade (expected to be "in excess of 1Moz" in "early January) would "lead to a re-rating".

But it doesn't stop there.

Optiva went on to say:

• The Kremnica resource has "a high 80.9% is in the Measured and Indicated categories".

• "the current resource statement includes only 1.2km of the known 6.5km strike length"

• "Furthermore the management reckon that the exploration licence areas immediately to the south of the Kreminca mining licence area holds potential to host further significant resources."
Thats fantastic news. Not only are OTC expecting further significant resource upgrades from the remaining part of the 6.5km strike length as mentioned in 2 above, but OTC expect "further significant resource upgrades" from south Kremnica !

• Zlata Bana, one of their 9 Slovakian exploration licenses "could be quickly converted from a Slovak to JORC code compliant resource of 360,000 to 500,000 ounces of gold equivalent in the Indicated and Inferred categories." It says they think this is "low grade" but advise progressing the project further to learn more about the mineralisation and project area".

• "Ortac may look to add new interests in Slovakia and possibly elsewhere in Europe. Potential project additions are likely to made within the Carpatho‐Balkan metallogenic belt, that runs from Slovakia through eastern Europe to Turkey. As illustrated below, a number of world class deposits have been identified within this prolific gold region including Beregovo, Ukraine (4.5m oz), Rosia Montana, Romania (10.0m oz) and Chelopech, Bulgaria (5.0moz)." FANTASTIC !

• The Brazilian iron ore project - "plans to conduct a low cost ground magnetic survey over the project area to identify potential areas for future drilling work in the early part of this year."

So its not really surprising that the recent Optiva note, has the heading "ORTAC – The next European Goldfields Ltd?" !

-------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY:

• Mkt cap of £38.4m at 2,21p.
• Cash of approx. £4.2m (including 500k VGM shares).
• Current gold "in ground" is worth £90.22m or 5.2p/share.
• Current silver "in ground" is worth £28.86m or 1.67p/share
• Imminent upgrade to "in excess of 1moz" in "early January"
• 80.9% of the current resource is in the all important Measured and Indicated categories.
• The current gold/silver and upgrade is only for 1.2km of their 6.5km strike this giving a potential 500% increase in resources to around £595m or 34.2p/share for just the 6.5km strike length alone.
• The current gold/silver and upgrade does not include the south of the Kreminca mining licence area which "holds potential to host further significant resources".
• The current gold/silver and upgrade does not include the 9 Slovakian licenses.
• The current gold/silver and upgrade does not include the 77% owned Brazilian Iron Ore project.
• There will be a "low cost ground magnetic survey" in early 2011 at the 77% owned Brazilian Iron Ore project.
• The current gold/silver and upgrade does not include "Potential project additions" in an area of "world class deposits" in the "prolific gold region including Beregovo, Ukraine (4.5m oz), Rosia Montana, Romania (10.0m oz) and Chelopech, Bulgaria (5.0moz)"
• Optiva hint that ORTAC could be "The next European Goldfields Ltd?", a 10Moz au £1.7 billion company.

These are my own personal opinions of course. You need to do your own research and reach your own conclusions. They may well be very different from mine.

00
European Gold share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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