Erinaceous Share Discussion Threads

[dell314] 01/4/2008 13:40

much riskier of course IMO
as Mgt could declare the business a flop at any time

When managemnet have said the refinancing is unlikely to provide any value for existing shareholders, why buy the stock?

Short of a bid, or some other miracle, you may as well flush your cash down the toilet. Surely, there are punts with better risk/reward ratios...

Rgds
dell

All IMHO, DYOR etc.

[andrbea] 01/4/2008 10:34

some life today
up 12%

day traders or what?

it is volatile, spread reasonable (1.52-1.58)
cf hml which used to have a big following
but this is a better train for momentum volatility 1p to 2p and back

much riskier of course IMO
as Mgt could declare the business a flop at any time

[ch2175] 27/3/2008 16:36

getting out in case they end up suspended you mean Big Fella?

[the big fella] 27/3/2008 16:20

Short closing?

[ch2175] 27/3/2008 13:40

Search me. Maybe the Banks are trying to prop ti up long enough to get to the break up proceeds?
Any other logic out there?

[25babies] 26/3/2008 11:34

Why are shares still being bought?

[ch2175] 25/3/2008 19:40

Yvain - its not on their website because the staff are likely to read it there!

[yvain] 25/3/2008 16:06

There have always been a few loonies holding onto this even folowing the announcement 6 months ago that the shares were effectively worthless. Andreab raises a very good question as to comments as it's reported today (as quoted above) that they have said the shares are worthless but there's nothing on their website. I wonder what deadlines the banks have given them for getting at least some of their money back and at what point they lose patience?

[the big fella] 25/3/2008 14:39

I am surprised the share price is above a penny.

[ch2175] 25/3/2008 13:51

Yes but selling before the end of tax year might make sense for some.

[25babies] 25/3/2008 12:25

But when they go phut - surely the loss is even greater (though marginally not much more than selling now).

[andrbea] 25/3/2008 11:59

-40%

at what point does the company have to comment?

[ch2175] 25/3/2008 09:00

Not entirely. If you sell quickly the losses can come off any gains before the year end cant they?

[25babies] 25/3/2008 08:58

"The company also said it has concluded that it is highly unlikely that any
value can be attributed to its existing ordinary shares, regardless of whether
the plan is successful or not."

Share certificates are now wallpaper.

[ch2175] 21/3/2008 13:13

The point about Farr is well made Yvain. There was a note on another BB from 2006 when about 15 of them left en masse and that is now having effect it seems.
I dont know that Zurich have actually called time but the Insurance Times artcle made it clear that they dont like what they have seen so far.
What i know for certain is that a hell of a lot of people have stayed on throughout the group pinning their hopes on a substantial deferred bonus that is now due to be paid next week. Loads will jump ship after that even if it is paid, there no longer being any reason to stay around. If they dont pay it this time then...................

[yvain] 20/3/2008 17:17

CH - do you know if Zurich have walked away?

[yvain] 20/3/2008 17:16

Harty what Zurich (and other insurers) would be interested in is the landlords products as they have some good brands. But all the people who were the drivers of that business have already gone to Towergate. I don't think you have any idea how badly the EIS numbers have recent deteriorated. The performance of the social housing business (Farr) has shown the value of the people as Farr has lost over 50% of its income in under 2 years. This business is of no interest to Zurich as they have a strong direct brand (other than perhaps to get rid of a competitor and try to hold onto as much as possible).

My guess is that Zurich have taken a look at the numbers, seen how far they've gone south in the last 6 months and said "no thanks" or have made a derisory offer. It's of no serious interest to a VC as it needs the premiums to make any deal stack up at whatever value. A consolidator couldn't increase the margins as they are so good anyway. So it has to be an insurer.

And the market shows no signs of turning incidentally. Insurers are still playing for market share.

[ch2175] 19/3/2008 20:19

Respect your views and optimism Harty but Zurich have already baulked. Just like everyone else who took a sniff previously.
Even if you were right on every point it would fall short of £12M on a pe of 12 and EIS are simply insuring in the wrong sector to get anywhere near it as their falling revenues highlight.

[harty1] 19/3/2008 15:21

Yvain

Not my understanding with regards to top people and none of the so called names who have left had been with them long in any event as far as I can see so what do they take other than what they may have brought with them? There is plenty of consolidating going on, Giles, Towergate, Broker Network, etc and its a weekly event. Rates are and will move up, insurers are looking to cover positions and if an insurer purchases then they have the readies!

I think it will go for more than £ 100M - If I'm wrong then so be it but thats my view and I think this part of ERG have continually overperformed when compares with ERG itself and are quality businesses with good loyal staff

I do accept that they may look to try their luck and push for a distressed sale but there's no guarantee they'll get it

[yvain] 19/3/2008 12:59

Harty you're in cloud cuckoo land. Pretty much all of the decent people have gone (before and after last April), there is no movement in the insurance market, consolidators have or are running out of cash and not willing or able to do the same deals they were a few months ago. Towergate obviously decided against it as they poached all their people instead!

Yes 10 to 12 times profit may still be possible for a top notch, growing insurance business with top quality management but EIS certainly isn't that.

Ask yourself, with the above background and all the insurance businesses moving backwards at a rate of knots would you pay £100m? The signs are even Zurich is backing off on due diligence so they may fail to sell it at all.

[ch2175] 19/3/2008 11:23

It was curtains the minute they breached the banking covenants last year. Since then its only been a case of when.

[andrbea] 19/3/2008 11:01

-21%

looks like curtains to me

maybe they should do like flx
give up entirely and accept an RTO from a completely different company.


nia dyor

[ch2175] 19/3/2008 09:03

If they dont sell Harty, then the Administrator will do it for them and they wont get nearly 12 times earnings (which when results come out shortly still wouldnt get near £100M anyway.