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Ergomed Share Discussion Threads
Showing 101 to 123 of 125 messages
|Ergomed are attending Bio Europe - in Barcelona in March. They are listed as an investor so I guess on the look out for new co development opportunities.
|More on Modus
|Thanks for links.
I really haven't looked closely enough at Ergomed's development partners but Modus looks very promising. Didn't realise that is was a spin out from the highly prestigious Karolinska Institutet and was funded primarily by the Karolinska Development Fund. Sevuparin has Orphan Drug Status in both Europe and the US. Let's hope it lives up to its promise as Sickle Cell is a dreadfully painful disease with very poor treatment options.|
|Here's the home page and press release from Modus:
Referring to the Numis initiation note (Oct 2016), Ergomed owned 5% of the equity (estimate) in Modus who's principle asset is Sevuparin for the treatment of Sickle cell disease.
Peak sales potential for Sevuparin are >$1Bn and it could launch in 2019 - 2020, they have assigned a 16% chance of success and a risk adjusted NPV of £10M based on risk adjusted DCF which comes out at equivalent to 25p/share for Ergomed.|
|Modus raises £2.9 million...
|thank you Timbo
i hope you do not mind i quoted your 105, in an answer to a question on LSE
|'Numis today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Ergomed Plc (LON:ERGO) and set its price target at 277p.'
Equity development: '. A sum-of-the-parts valuation analysis suggests that the Services businesses are valued at c.202p / share. With the Products businesses added to this, the group valuation increases to 301p / share.'
'Stifel today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Ergomed Plc (LON:ERGO) and raised its price target to 315p (from 300p).'|
Thanks - good stuff.|
Yes, that is my understanding, they get a fixed share of all payments and they contribute a fixed share of future development costs.
Numis estimate Ergomed's share of Lorediplon at 10% (uncapped)|
|speaking from a medical background this lorideplon RNS is very good news. exciting share to be in right now. IMHO.|
|Yes really good news, and interesting comments re. valuation of Lorediplon.
Ferrer have already licensed Lorediplon to Ildong in Eastern Asia and today have said:-
"we will seek to advance the product towards the market through additional partnerships"
I'm not sure of the terms of Ergomed's agreement with Ferrer but presumably, if any further licensing deals are struck, Ergomed would be entitled to a cut of any upfront payments?|
|Whilst on the subject of Numis valuation’s, the other valuations and probabilities of obtaining regulatory approval are as follows:
PeproStat: 29p ( 27%)
Ready Flow: 7p (5%)
Lorediplon: (see above)
Zoptrex: 45p (40%)
Sevuparin: 25p (16%)|
|Today's news has prompted me to look at the Numis research note (October 2016) referred to in my earlier posts
Numis were valuing Lorediplon as worth 29p/share before this result (risk adjusted with 25% chance of success), furthermore they estimate that Neurology compounds generally have a probability of 50% of getting approval (following a successful phase II), so they will presumably now value Loredipion at 58p/share. Oh happy days!|
|Tks mfhmfh i thought so and i put my toe in yesterday and today ...|
|definitively positive RNS yesterday. no idea what impact it will have on earning/sp though. I still thinks Haemostatix is the potentially 'big one'. All IMHO.|
|thank you Timbo
I am new to this stock , so please bear with me
I am surprised to see no comment on today's RNS on the completion of Zoptrex P3 trial
a drug on which i believe we are entitled to 18% of revenues
I appreciate that we have to wait for full results to be analysed and revealed in April but the wording of the RNS seems to be upbeat
Am i barking up the wrong tree ?|
Thanks for sharing your meeting notes.
A couple of thoughts.
- indicated growth rates for CRO and PV seem somewhat disappointing
- Hate the way these guys talk about market cap rather than per share value
- the Zoptrex royalty is capped at 4x cost which if I recall correctly is STG48m. Same deal for Multikine. They were unable to get uncapped on these deals because they we're already advanced to P3
- on that slide they still have Multikine for P3 readout in 2018. If you follow the Cel-Sci story it quickly becomes apparent that the management there is a disaster, that the Multikine P3 trial has been suspended by FDA and that there are IDMC recommendations that it should be terminated completely for safety reasons. I consider the likelihood of this coming home to be zero at this point.(One of the disadvantages of ERGO's model is that they find themselves supporting third tier deals that have not been able to get support from the serious players in the market?)
- The peri anal warts story is dead too. This is public information and SS including it in his presentation talking it up as a possibility is misleading BS IMHO.
- hadn't picked up the Loredpilon market size potential and low double digit royalty - could be very good in time
- Zoptex is on the other hand very much more promising. Some good reasons why the CoS for Zoptrex should be substantially better than the c.30% baseline P3 for oncology via an SA contributor Erik Ganesh:
Known effective agent: Doxo is already a well known effective agent against these tumors. AEZS-108 just ups the dosage 4.5 times. This would normally kill the patient and the tumor, but by directing it more specifically to the tumors the patient survives (with less side effects) and the tumor dies. The medical logic is sound.
Large study: The study is quite large with 500 patients. This gives us a greater chance of statistical success given that the actually compound works better than just regular Doxo.
Open label: Too many studies fail due to “unexpected good results in the placebo arm”. This applies even to advanced cancers. By not blinding this bias is reduced drastically.
Two independent DSMB reviews showed efficacy at 124 and 192 events respectively. Chances are, it will also show efficacy at 384 events. This is probably the most compelling argument.
FDA special protocol assessment: the study is carefully designed with the FDA when looking at the (very good) P2 data.
Loved by clinicians and patients: The trial was fully-recruited well before expected, many patients and caregivers wishing to participate had to be denied.
Delay of results: The trial duration has been extended three times because some patients are living much longer than expected. If these are patients on the drug, naturally the chances of statistically significant benefit over the old drug is higher.
That all said the valuation of AEZS does not in anyway suggest that the market thinks that this is a serious cancer drug in the making. All to be shortly revealed.
This may come across as glass half full, but am long the stock in good size and optimistic that this set up is going to deliver over time.
Anything new in the Numis report?|
your wish has been granted
The recording does not include the Q&As unfortunately|
|Will yesterday's presentation be available online?|
|Yikes, I've just had a quick look at the Numis report, it's 48 pages! That will keep me out of mischief this morning.|
I will have a better answer for that question when I have seen the Numis research note, which has now arrived in my inbox.
Aeterna Zentaris were only prepared to offer low single digit royalties for macimorelin as they perceived it to have a very high probability of success, presumably Ergomed baulked at the low royalty on offer and walked.|
As always thanks very much for taking the time and trouble to share another comprehensive report. Lucky escape indeed,which sort of brings me to my question. Do you have any concerns regarding the drive on the co-development front? 10 ongoing projects at any one point in time is quite a commitment and not without risk. 2 or 3 failures in a row could be quite damaging. I should add, not necessarily in financial terms but in regards to sentiment. I guess time will tell and it only takes one or two successes to validate the strategy.
Meanwhile the share price continues to go from strength to strength. As I posted over on LSE, I wish the 3 month chart for the rest of my portfolio looked like this.|