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Entu (UK) Share Discussion Threads
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Trading in line but dividend cut in FY17
Entu has announced that EBITDA from continuing operations will be within the range of its previous guidance of £2.5m to £2.9m at £2.6m to £2.7m. This is in line with ZC forecast of £2.7m in FY16. The FY16 outcome, combined with the fact that revenue for the first three months of FY17 are also in line, is reassuring considering the issues the business has faced during the year. FY17 forecasts assume a c. 60% increase in EBITDA as profitability bounces back. However, as a result of a balance sheet review and the introduction of more prudent accounting policies, the company will not pay a final dividend for FY16. This means total dividend for the year will be 0.5p, not the 1.5p forecast. We leave income forecasts unchanged in FY17 and FY18 but reduce dividend expectations. Although the company does state that it intends to reinstate the dividend as soon as possible the cut to the dividend is disappointing. The valuation on FY17 earnings of 5.4x reflects the difficulties the business has faced over the last twelve to eighteen months.
§ Getting to grips with legacy issues: We welcome the balance sheet and accounting policy reviews, despite the historical issues that it raises. The change in accounting policy in the Repairs and Renewals Service Agreements and Finance Commissions will impact prior year results by c. £2.0m but will not have a material impact on the FY16 outcome. We await FY16 results for greater detail on the adjustments needed before adjusting historic numbers. Management’s commitment to reorganise and add the necessary infrastructure will leave the business in a better position and with a cleaner balance sheet post all discontinued operations being fully written down. We previously treated £5.0m of advanced payments as debt, on the same basis, the net debt forecast for FY16 improves to £4.2m from £5.0m.
§ No impact to profit forecasts but dividend expectations cut: That today’s statement indicates that FY16 results will be in line with expectations is reassuring when considering the difficult year the business has experienced. Further to this, the comment that the first three months of the current year is in line provides confidence that FY16 will prove to be the trough in earnings. FY17 forecasts assume a significant bounce in profitability as adjusted PBT increases c. 75% to £3.9m. The only material change to forecasts on the back of today’s statement is that we reduce dividend expectations in FY16 to 0.5p from 1.5p. The 0.5p relates to the interim dividend previously announced. We assume the company pays a dividend of 1.0p in FY17 and 1.5p in FY18. This improves the net debt position to £0.9m from £1.2m in FY17.
§ Valuation: On FY17 earnings, the shares are trading on a PER of 5.4x. The rating is reflective of the difficulties the business has faced and the uncertainty with regards forecasts in FY17 and FY18. On FY18 earnings the multiple falls to 4.2x.|
|Price correction it is. Let say 33p first stop, then near 40p.|
|someone (probably Kestrel) seem happy to pick up the sells all day long...|
|very likely imvho....Kestrel 17%...|
|What's the odds on a take private?|
Do zeus go in to any detail about the cash impact on the group?
It seems they only paid £200k for the business a year ago so not a major write off subject to the above. I suppose they can focus a bit more on the main businesses.
I know directors made tidy sums at the ipo but still have large holdings so still incentivised to get back on course. Tempted to have a punt at these levels though may wait for next trading update.|
|Massive red flagHow do you sell a company generating £1.1 EBITDA for just a £1.Is it a related party transaction? Material, shareholder approval?|
|sold now. Doesn't matter how cheap it looks with the current management.|
|Where can I buy 1.2 m for a quid? Bet it's sold to a mate.|
|That rns doesn't sound too good. Who are duality group?|
|so let me get this straight, they make a disposla for £1 and lose £1.2m in EBITDA!|
|..someone warned warned ablut the divi being an intentional ipo CON TRICK when the share price was 140p
Its an old city trick.|
|Someone desperate to get out at 15p yesterday, should be an RNS soon.|
|it seems shareprophets have gone quiet on this, having tipped it at 107p and then again at 61p!!!
the 1.5p dividend is nearly 10%......reckon it'll go completely soon enough.|
"60% right, 40% wrong last year,"
perhaps you should include that it with every "analysis" published...to warn the public !
|So glad I sold out of this, took a massive loss but it's clear to see it's dead in the water.|
|It seems that the way in which revenue is booked makes the P/E etc seem a lot more attractive than the reality, selling services to people who have difficulty and in many cases no intention of paying?|
|Yup, happy to admit I got this one wrong - good points made above, THANKS.
We live & learn.
It's tempting to look at ENTU as a recovery play for 2017, but I don't trust management any more.
As always, we all make our own investing decisions & mistakes.
I don't give recommendations or advice. Just a view. Sometimes it's right, sometimes wrong. 60% right, 40% wrong last year, which gave a great overall result.
Take responsibility, and we all learn as we go along.
|Forgot I was even holding this dog. I can't see 2017 improving in reality.|
|Paul Scott went against his own rules: never buy an IPO- if the company's so good, why are the owners selling up their majority- always be wary of IPOs initially enticing you with a big dividend. Thats why he got stung. Going against your own strategy and then hoping things will turn around is the sure way to the poorhouse. Personally I dont subscribe to these rules & I was initially interested in investing here but I was grateful to have an awareness of Scott's rules at the back of my head,and, as a Stopfordian, when I saw who the management was and that they were selling, it was a bargepole job straight away. Good luck all holders.|