Enteq Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 04/3/2015 17:24

The current oil price is encoraging a push for an efficiency drive across the whole complex to maintain and drive up the internal rate of return at the co's.

Oil is still depleting at about 5MBpd!! The shortfall will need to be made up even if renewables and electric cars kick in. By 2020 25MBpd needs to be available just to stand still and the current oil price isn't encouraging the investment needed and you don't bring on 25MBpd extra overnight.

Something has to give. Whomever can hold their breath longest will win. Oil price will rise towards $80 or more and anything NTQ can do to help efficiency will sell.

Saudis eye is on US, China. Have heard they use a rough metric that when they ship < 1MBpd approx to the US they act on the price.

[meijiman] 04/3/2015 09:58

Saudis pushing the price of oil up maybe? But it was way oversold and most of the other obvious service companies have bounced. I made a nice trade on HTG-buy at times of max fear. Doesn't always work though!

[1gw] 04/3/2015 09:38

Nice rise, but what's behind it? Confidence returning that the oil price has bottomed?

[p1nkfish] 07/2/2015 20:40

I tend to agree with this - summarised in the last 2 paragraphs.

[p1nkfish] 07/2/2015 20:34

Grantham has misjudged in 2014, not sure he's right now too.

Recently heard tech is still progressing and there are places breaking even at $32.

The Chinese want capabilities that are not dependent on sea lanes they do not control. There will be demand there.

[prop_joe] 07/2/2015 13:49

I agree with you p1nkfish. Their cash balance alone should be sufficient to see them through the downturn. Even if some of their customers go out of business before outstanding balances are recovered it should be an annoyance rather than fatal.
With the share price significantly below net asset value and plenty of cash in the bank I am happy to sit back and wait for recovery.

[p1nkfish] 07/2/2015 09:11

i don't think survival is in question at this point.
they can trim and get close to hibernation state.
notice holding rns 6th feb?

[1gw] 04/2/2015 15:20

But that's the beauty of the oil market in one sense. Once companies start to believe the bad times are here to stay, they start cutting seriously (whether it's US frackers or supermajors). Once analysts start to see companies cutting seriously (especially the supermajors) they start calling a bottom in the price and investors start acting on those calls. Good segment on CNBC with Cramer yesterday talking about "U" shaped or "V" shaped bottom - he thinks we'll bump along the bottom of a "U" for a while but the point he was making was that at least everyone's talking about a bottom now whereas 2 weeks ago it was "how low can we go?".

Has Enteq got anything that would be interesting to a bigger company? Now might be the time if one of them wants to make a move - while Enteq is preoccupied with survival and before analysts start worrying about the scarcity of supply (as a result of the cuts) looking 3 or 4 years out.

[mega_trader] 31/1/2015 12:33

Rig count just keeps falling, sustained low oil price and lower rig count not good

[p1nkfish] 23/1/2015 19:22

This is a victim of the cyclical end market, the management will prove itself during this period and be measured by cash preservation and making the hard decisions to keep overheads appropriate. I think they will come through this and being cyclical the oil price will head higher again.

Moving focus off North America was a sensible move and will help to a degree.

Ring fencing the $14m and keeping overheads appropriate to revenue will help underpin the market cap.

I have no idea when oil will turn.

Blame management if they erode the cash.pile, not for the cyclicity as this turn caught very many off guard. I think they will respond quickly, time will tell. They paid top $ for some of the acquisitions - granted - that was tbe market at the time and even 12 months back few would have predicted what has happened to oil in the meantime.

Good luck.

[paleje] 23/1/2015 00:55

Whose assets, p1nk?

How long and how low will this go on. Bloomberg consensus say OPEC will blink first, US say they can handle the fallout, Bob Dudley says current prices could run a few years, who's right and who's wrong. No analysts or insiders predicted this, they've all been running for cover or excuses in their own way, useless. It will resolve as unexpectedly as it started imo but I've no idea when.

I was content to bide time,underwater, and wait for recovery until I saw tonight the FD purchase. Now I think I'll sell and put the money elsewhere purely because of that action. It's derisory and flies in the face of what management say and have said.

(Note to self - don't believe management. Until the next time:))

[p1nkfish] 22/1/2015 18:27

someone will get to pick up assets cheap if they have the cash available.

[mega_trader] 22/1/2015 14:53

Fair point, looks like a token buy.

BP saying oil at $50 for 2-3 years, so outlook bleak for frackers, more so if the bond and loan market dries up for them.

[1gw] 20/1/2015 16:16

Not sure that I see the FD buying a mere £2000 worth of shares as particularly bullish. The expression "damning with faint praise" springs to mind...

[mega_trader] 20/1/2015 10:38

Director buy says things not as bad as market thinks + assets and cash.

[rivaldo] 20/1/2015 09:46

Good to see the FD buying a few more shares yesterday at 15.7p.

The m/cap is now £8.9m.

At the interims, cash (which remains around $14m) plus receivables less payables were $20.9m. NTQ also had $7.5m of inventories, and a further $2m of buildings.

That's around $30.4m of net tangible assets, or £19.4m at $1.57.

Even writing down inventories somewhat that's still well above the m/cap - leaving the IP and core business making say $25m-$30m of sales valued negatively.

I'll retain my relatively small holding (which is now in big negative territory!).

[mega_trader] 19/1/2015 16:42

Director buy.

Look at the oil fall and rise from 2009, total reversal. Oil price will find its level, but if opec cut production it will retrace rapidly, you dont want to be out when that comes, and some speculating that could be this quarter.

[woodcutter] 19/1/2015 11:43

I'll wait and see how things develop. I'm not so convinced yet that the oil price will move back towards previous levels or indeed anywhere near those levels.

i spent some time at the weekend looking at the WTI oil price chart and from a TA perspective you could argue that the current price is around what you'd have expected on the longer term trend analysis from 1999 to today.

The sharp rise in POO from 2005 onwards looks to have been a little unprecendented and particularly the period 2007 to 2009. The financial crisis brought POO back down to earth again but it then rose again at quite a steep rate later in 2009 to 2011 and was pretty much range bound then until the recent fall.

Sorry can't post the chart here, but it would suggest $60pb would be around the sort of price we could expect.

My holding is very insignificant in terms of my portfolio so it's not material. Nevertheless i wouldn't be adding at present, I'd like to see the oil price reaction over the coming months.

Woody

[woodcutter] 16/1/2015 09:55

As you know i've been in cash most of last year, it was flat for me, no return.
Can't complain had a good few years before that.

I traded a bit last year but not much, some success some failure, not by bag really, but i'm going to give it more effort this year.

I've started to come back into the market with a mixed bag of mid caps and the odd small cap. I pretty much sold everything first qtr last year however I still have a sizeable holding in ANP with smaller holdings in ESC, SBS and SPRP (thanks to GHF).

Over the last few months i've added ALNT, XPP got a few of both of these now.

Recenltly added to holdings BPI, RPC on the plastics/Price of oil fall. Had a few DX. as Giles Hargreave is in there. All these are very small though.

in and out of CBG, LRE and KGF can't make my mind up:-)

NTQ my first big drop for years but i've only got a small holding.

Dabbling really rather than investing.

No chance of top four, Rodgers looking vulnerable imv. Talks the talk but can't walk the walk, i think. Suarez and sturridge missed badly, perhaps only thing getting him off the sack.

I travelled a bit last year and took several months out in the summer playing golf, it's my major pastime alongside this. (not posting much at all during the period)

will keep any eye on your posts.

Cheers Woody

[simon gordon] 15/1/2015 22:00

Hi Woody,

Mainly in Retail Bonds. Share wise quite like QP. and KBT as early stage growth stories.

Scouse Mouse seriously missing Suarez. Don't think they'll make top four.

Are you buying/holding many smallies?

[woodcutter] 15/1/2015 21:36

Simon

If you don't mind me asking are you still mainly cash or have you started buying...............an LFC season ticket for next year maybe?

Woody

[woodcutter] 15/1/2015 20:37

having spent years working in capital projects in the engineering sector before retiring i've experienced these cycles a number of times and the usual pattern in any engineering sector is always the same; massive capex reduction, just about every penny of spend gets scurtinised to the nth degree, head count gets over cut on the basis that sales will disintegrate.

This goes along merrily for the cycle length, which is variable, then something changes, in this case POO goes up and it will climb steadily. The usual outcome is that there's been a year or eighteen months of complete under-investment in the sector and then everyone wants everything yesterday and capex spend goes bonkers!

In the meantime the technology has been steadily improving and no ones been buying it so everything the clients are currently running is dated and you get an explosion of orders.

No ones asking whether to spend or scrutinse whats being spent, they just want it now and don't care what it costs.

If NTQ can stay solvent for the duration of the cycle then there is still potential in the business so i wouldn't write it off just yet. I tend to think these are times of great opportunity to extend your sales contact based and client relationship build for the inevitable turnaround.

aimho.

[mega_trader] 15/1/2015 18:44

Shalegas unaffected in other regions. The UK will at some stage go full on too.

Opec will reverse it's stance once other mena oil producers start to fall short on their national budgets due to decreased revenue, they don't want another arab spring do they.

It makes no sense for opec to overproduce, they want as much $/pbo as pos, shale will start up again at the first sign of a cut, like popup shops.

6 months from now you'll be kicking yourselfs for not buying, just as oil climbs or they get bought out ... at a premium!