Enterprise Inns Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 01/3/2013 11:06

Breaking out:

[jeffian] 07/2/2013 10:09

Not that they were ever in the same boat, today's news from PUB about the likely success of their financial restructuring will do no harm to sentiment in the sector. Despite the rather disappointing (I thought) IMS, the share price seems to have held up remarkably well after a little wobble.

[rathlindri] 06/2/2013 11:36

quite a recovery

[muscletrade] 31/1/2013 13:01

Jeffian, agreed, seems like it is going to be a long slog. Out of interest note the 2018 bond has been on a great run last year (as has the SP) but bond price off a tad last few days

[jeffian] 31/1/2013 12:48

muscletrade,
Well we know about the snow, and the failure of their Wines & Spirits supplier was unfortunate (though a 'one off' event) but the like-for-likes are still disappointing bearing in mind how GNK and MARS have managed to turn round their tenanted estates. I think part of the problem lies in how much of the ETI estate is in the North and Midlands, which negates the growth in the South. As the FT man says, it's not a disaster but it does feel as if it's being managed for the bondholders at the moment and shareholders are going to have to wait a while longer to see a real return.

[muscletrade] 31/1/2013 12:33

Jeffian, thanks for that.

Deutch Bank May well be right. Might ask why if they feel so strongly why they were selling into the results?
They are now below 3% ....could they be selling while telling everyone else to buy. stranger things have happened.

Putting aside my darker side....the interims were pretty dismal (as was the conference call that you reported on) but does not change the dial very much and the value argument is still valid. It might however be even more valid in a few weeks time if market comes off it's current sugar high.

[jeffian] 31/1/2013 11:50

Comment from FT 'Alphaville':


BE
And, as for Enterprise ...........
BE
Not a disaster, but they've more than doubled in a year.
BE
So a small downgrade has a big effect.
Enterprise Inns PLC (ETI:LSE): Last: 89.40, down 9.3 (-9.42%), High: 94.50, Low: 87.65, Volume: 2.83m
BE
Geof Collyer as Deutsche Bank follows this one closest, so here he is.
BE
Enterprise Inns has reported lfl net income down 4.4% for the 17 weeks to 26
January. This is below our -1.2%, which we thought could be a bit optimistic in
our preview given the recent comments from Marston's about snow impacted
trading in the middle two weeks on January. Enterprise estimates the impact
of this decline to be around £5m.
We knew about the £1m or so hit from the collapse of the group's wine and
spirits supplier WaverleyTSB, because management talked about it on the final
results meeting in November. At the same meeting, the COO talked about a
poor October, which was included in our lfl net income lfl forecast hit that was
worth around -£1.5m, so the net impact to our full year numbers looks to be
about -£2-3m.

BE
This means that the £198.5m of net cash generation (after £65m of capex and
including £150m of disposal proceeds) that we were forecasting for FY'13E
could now be about £196m. Disposals are on track for our forecast, and onethird
of these are either in the bag (bank) or are about to be. Average prices for
the sold sites at £363k per pub and £500k for those currently with solicitors are
higher than the run rate in FY'12, which suggests that a reasonable proportion
of these – we estimate around 20 of the 49 – are top end sites, being sold for
more than £750k each.

BE
We have trimmed our EBITDA forecast by £2.5m from £322.6m to £320m,
which translates into a 2% EPS downgrade. Small beer, in the context of the
group's rehabilitation, which remains on track.

BE
We were forecasting lfl net income in negative territory for H1 and in growth in
H2. The pub sector is not like yesterday's papers – pent up demand can be
satisfied at a later time, and the experience of the sector over the past year
suggests that when the time is right, and customers can actually get to the
pub, they will spend.
The shares have already reacted in advance of the Q1 IMS, by dropping back
from 104p at the beginning of the year to last night's close of 97p. We expect
the market will over-react to the worse than expected lfl numbers but that
should be taken as a buying opportunity. The shares are still cheap – see table
bottom right.

[jeffian] 31/1/2013 11:49

Comment from FT 'Alphaville':


BE
And, as for Enterprise ...........
BE
Not a disaster, but they've more than doubled in a year.
BE
So a small downgrade has a big effect.
Enterprise Inns PLC (ETI:LSE): Last: 89.40, down 9.3 (-9.42%), High: 94.50, Low: 87.65, Volume: 2.83m
BE
Geof Collyer as Deutsche Bank follows this one closest, so here he is.
BE
Enterprise Inns has reported lfl net income down 4.4% for the 17 weeks to 26
January. This is below our -1.2%, which we thought could be a bit optimistic in
our preview given the recent comments from Marston's about snow impacted
trading in the middle two weeks on January. Enterprise estimates the impact
of this decline to be around £5m.
We knew about the £1m or so hit from the collapse of the group's wine and
spirits supplier WaverleyTSB, because management talked about it on the final
results meeting in November. At the same meeting, the COO talked about a
poor October, which was included in our lfl net income lfl forecast hit that was
worth around -£1.5m, so the net impact to our full year numbers looks to be
about -£2-3m.

BE
This means that the £198.5m of net cash generation (after £65m of capex and
including £150m of disposal proceeds) that we were forecasting for FY'13E
could now be about £196m. Disposals are on track for our forecast, and onethird
of these are either in the bag (bank) or are about to be. Average prices for
the sold sites at £363k per pub and £500k for those currently with solicitors are
higher than the run rate in FY'12, which suggests that a reasonable proportion
of these – we estimate around 20 of the 49 – are top end sites, being sold for
more than £750k each.

BE
We have trimmed our EBITDA forecast by £2.5m from £322.6m to £320m,
which translates into a 2% EPS downgrade. Small beer, in the context of the
group's rehabilitation, which remains on track.

BE
We were forecasting lfl net income in negative territory for H1 and in growth in
H2. The pub sector is not like yesterday's papers – pent up demand can be
satisfied at a later time, and the experience of the sector over the past year
suggests that when the time is right, and customers can actually get to the
pub, they will spend.
The shares have already reacted in advance of the Q1 IMS, by dropping back
from 104p at the beginning of the year to last night's close of 97p. We expect
the market will over-react to the worse than expected lfl numbers but that
should be taken as a buying opportunity. The shares are still cheap – see table
bottom right.

[jeffian] 31/1/2013 10:01

Just listened to the analysts' conference call. Yep, I think "uninspiring" is the word. All feeling a bit Zombie-ish. The carrot on the end of the stick for this donkey is the hope of a return to like-for-like growth in H2, but I doubt the market will be much impressed by that until they deliver it.

[rathlindri] 31/1/2013 08:35

Hmmmm, not exactly inspiring, the market won't like this statement

[alchemy30] 31/1/2013 08:24

0819 GMT [Dow Jones] Enterprise Inns (ETI.LN) shares are down 8% at 91p after the company's 1Q results. Shore Capital says the update shows sluggish trade. Says that adjusting for heavy snow and disruptions from the closure of a major distributor, LFL net income was down a slightly disappointing 2-2.5%. Says there is scope for minor downgrades to its 2013 pretax profit estimate of GBP132M. Retains a sell stance on the stock, highlighting the limited opportunity for either dividends or earnings growth over the medium term. ([e-mail])

[jonc] 31/1/2013 07:18

Seems to have underperformed compared to others in the sector.

[rathlindri] 25/1/2013 14:30

Good to see this recovering today, I almost sold earlier in the week. One week to interim statement and AGM

[jeffian] 14/1/2013 09:53

Today's IMS from Greene King brings more positive news for the tenanted estate companies. EBITDA per pub in their tenanted estate up 4.2% in the 36 weeks ytd. At ETI's last presentation, Ted Tuppen said "flat is the new up", but 'up is the new up' sounds better to me! There is a North/South issue at ETI, but even so this looks like good news.

[rathlindri] 09/1/2013 13:28

Very quiet BB here....I see interim statement is due end of this month....has anyone got a view what's expected.i.e. good news or otherwise....tempted to top up :-)

[timbo003] 09/1/2013 08:10

From today's Telegraph:



"The crackdown was announced ahead of a debate in Parliament today, at which the Government was facing a potential revolt."

##############################################

It will be covered by BBC parliament channel today, soon
after prime minister's questions (always worth watching!)

12:00pm Prime Minister's Question Time
Ten Minute Rule Motion - Tim Loughton
Children (Performances) Regulations 1968 (Amendment)

Debate
Opposition Day [13th allotted day]
(i) Statutory code of practice for pub companies
(ii) Rising cost of transport

Adjournment - Stephen Phillips
Speed limits in rural Lincolnshire

[cockneyrebel] 08/1/2013 08:52

*DJ Enterprise Inns Raised to Buy From Underperform by BofA-Merrill Lynch

[jeffian] 05/1/2013 14:31

It doesn't. Admiral bought the bottom-end pubs the others didn't want.

[rathlindri] 27/12/2012 11:52

excellent!

[rathlindri] 20/12/2012 14:40

ermmm, could be? Best wishes all fellow holders

[mechanical trader] 20/12/2012 14:05

errrr is that a breakout???

[mechanical trader] 20/12/2012 10:47

Deutsche Bank buy over 3%....