Energetix Share Discussion Threads

[newkid] 04/3/2011 14:34

Not sure where you got £3.3k but if that is infact the price I wouldn't count on getting 5% of the market. Even with a feedin tariff that price would make it to costly for most consumers to even think about.

[kooba] 02/3/2011 15:02

i like your views!!
i agree the kingston system could capture a chunk of the uk market with e.on behind it and your 5% estimate is not unreasonable they might not get the £500 per unit if they do an exclusive guaranteed size deal...but what the hell i still think royalty income could come in around your estimate for slightly higher unit sales..the european market size is over 5m we are trialling in germany and then we have the north american market where it is already being trialled in canada and i believe a potentially large market exists on the usa n east coast as well.which could only add to valuation if we developed some traction.there are competing technologies of course but kingston is proven and ready to go..it is also straight forward IP... easy to build easy to maintain technology that doesn't need a big lump of floorspace.de-risked and ready for market..but the transition from development to sales is never easy so the management have to adapt to jump the next hurdle.
the risk reward appears compelling and with a few years funding now in place should be a run for free cashflow from here.
oh and pnu power and the vphase holding are probably worth the market cap alone!!!

[cyberbub] 02/3/2011 14:43

The positive news flow over the last few months has been very good.

I don't hold here at the moment, as mentioned I did buy at well over 100p in 2007 but sold at a loss in 2008 when the sh*t hit the fan across the markets.

What attracts me here, apart from the promising technology of course, is the large director holdings and low number of shares.

Can any LTHs remind me of the projected sales figures of Kingstons?

If it is true that there is a 1m-unit market in the UK, then despite the high initial price tag of the microCHP boiler, you would think that given the regulatory and cultural framework at the moment, and the direct financial payback to customers through Feedin Tariffs, EGX should be able to capture at least 5-10% of that market? Let's say just 5%, so 50K units, and of the £3.3K price tag they make £500 operating profit per unit. That would be £25M profit, let's be cautious and say £20M pre-tax, and £12M post-tax profit. Give us a modest P/E of 8 and that would be a £100M market cap. With 65M shares in issue post-placing that gives us an share price of 150p.

That target is conservatively calculated, but also completely ignores the possibility of overseas boiler sales, or anything at all to do with PnU. If one was being more optimistic, would a 3-year horizon share price of 300p be wildly unrealistic?

Are there any projected threats or banana skins that anyone can see?

To my mind the company seems to be heading very much in the right direction at the moment. The main threat is probably from competitors in the green-boiler market, but EGX's 'USP' is the fact that they use relatively low technology (while still having IP protection) and therefore likely to be much more reliable than competitors, which is a strong selling point to customers who might be a bit nervous of new technology, as well as reassuring partners like EON that they will not suffer reputational damage from faulty units. Kingstons are also cheaper to the customer than their fuel-cell competitors (e.g. CFU, Ceres), and finally EGX's products are substantially further along in the product development pipeline.

Any views appreciated.

[peteqm] 01/3/2011 14:25

Two things that struck me in today's RNS:

"The DC100 (100kW) compressed air battery...can be used in parallel to provide power to meet the multi-megawatt requirements of modern data centres." It's good to see this confirmed imo, as 100kW on its own would probably be too small for the data-centre market.

And "the DC100 product will be offered in a packaged solution with partners." I hadn't spotted any mention before of the DC100 being offered in a packaged solution, so there seem to have been some positive developments on this front in recent times.

[peteqm] 24/2/2011 15:12

Great to have some good news today! It's a bit difficult to figure out (or even guess) what the deal is worth, but it probably won't be that much judging by previous Pnu Power revenue figures. But that said, I think it's very nice to have some movement on the Pnu Power front again.

Personally I was rather worried about the whole National Grid opportunity as we hadn't heard anything for a while other than the passage in the September interims that talked about how "the requirements and protocols of the National Grid companies have required Pnu Power to cross significant technical hurdles." It sounded rather ominous, but fortunately all of that seems to have been sorted out now.

I think the most encouraging point in the RNS is that if this unit operates successfully, it will "mark the end of the trial phase of the National Grid UK product qualification process." It's certainly been quite a lengthy process (the first order from NG was announced on 19th August 2009), but here's hoping that it will eventually lead to NewKid's vision of Pnu Power units at all of NG's premises (both UK and US, of course)

[newkid] 24/2/2011 07:45

Pos RNS but what is the deal worth? If it read that NG were going to install Pnu power units at all their premises over the next 5 years then that would be a good start for a rapid rise in the share price

[peteqm] 23/2/2011 10:01

Yes absolutely let's get some sales now. Just looking through the RNS, we should be seeing:

genlec: certification of the power module; field testing of the Kingston; and "continuing market engagement through multiple channel partners to continue commercial sales and establish a basis for growth from 2012"

pnu power: continuing work with major customer which egx "believes will deliver volume orders"; the new DC100 being promoted to the rapidly growing green data centre market; and new "sales and marketing leadership to drive commercialisation of the Pnu Power business".

[peteqm] 22/2/2011 16:44

I suppose today's news wasn't too surprising. Just looking at the numbers, it was clear egx would need extra funds at some stage. So "following the placing, the Company will have sufficient working capital for at least the next 12 months." Looks like we're looking at a make or break year for egx.

[newkid] 22/2/2011 08:43

So now we know why the share price has been walked down. To allow the placement to go with out a hitch at a bloody good discount even after the walk down. So the company couldn't place at 35p or 40p because no one would take it. Bloody crooks. At least we now have bottom I hope.

[peteqm] 21/2/2011 15:17

A few numbers on the market for Pnu Power (since it often gets ignored a bit when talking about EGX):

- According to Frost & Sullivan, the alternative energy storage market (Pnu Power's primary target) is estimated to grow to $1.15bn by 2013.
- The traditional battery market (parts of which Pnu could also target thanks to its low cost) is estimated to grow to $36.8bn by 2013.
- Finally, it's worth emphasizing that Pnu has started to focus on the data centre market, as the data centre industry is under significant pressure to reduce energy use & emissions and build greener data centres. According to Pike Research, investment in greener data centres will experience rapid growth over the next 5 years, increasing from $7.5bn in global revenue to $41.4bn by 2015, representing 28% of the total data centre market. Moreover, analysis indicates that power and cooling infrastructure solutions will be the largest portion of the green data centre market opportunity, representing 46% of revenue over the next 5 years.

All very encouraging numbers imo.

[peteqm] 21/2/2011 10:05

It was on 1st December 2010, jl. They could also have mentioned the German Gas and Water Association (20th October 2010) and Canmet (15th December 2010), but I suppose Eon is the most promising opportunity.

[jl202] 21/2/2011 10:01

Sunday Times mentions an order from Eon which RNS is this in?

jl.

[peteqm] 21/2/2011 09:52

Great to have some publicity in the Sunday Times! It was also interesting to see a price mentioned for the Kingston: 3,300 (I hadn't come across a number before). I had a quick glance at competing products (such as Baxi Ecogen) and they're significantly more expensive. It seems like clear confirmation of one of my favourite lines on the egx website: "A recent analysis of competing products by Delta Energy highlights Energetix's product as the lowest cost, shortest payback microCHP product."

[kooba] 20/2/2011 08:13

Green pioneers: New boiler turns bathrooms into power stations

[peteqm] 17/2/2011 08:57

Any thoughts on what's happening to the sp? Cash call imminent perhaps? It's frustrating- there have been so many positive developments in recent times imo and I don't understand why none of that's been reflected in the share price

[peteqm] 15/2/2011 13:57

I came across the following article in the Telegraph:



About halfway down there's a discussion about Ceres (competitor to Genlec). In any case what really caught my eye was a number I hadn't come across before:

"Goldman Sachs has said that the global market for this kind of product could be 30 million products a year."

I knew the market for microCHP was large, but I didn't realize it was that enormous! Great news for Genlec & EGX as far as I'm concerned.

[peteqm] 14/2/2011 11:20

Any thoughts on whether/how Carillion's acquisition of Eaga will impact us? In the ft, Carillion's chief exec was quoted as saying that the deal "gives Eaga the clout to take advantage of the growing green energy market." Does that bode well for VPhase & EGX or am I reading too much into things?

[peteqm] 14/2/2011 11:12

Great to hear about your further enquiries, Kooba. I couldn't agree more; genlec and pnu being valued together at less than 8m is absolute madness!

[newkid] 11/2/2011 14:25

Funny that the EAGA takeover has not moved this up. Maybe that's the reason for the fall in our share price Not sure the contract can be stopped but it may well be in the back of PI's minds.

[peteqm] 11/2/2011 08:57

kooba- what do you think is happening with the sp?

[peteqm] 10/2/2011 15:06

A rough day for the share price .. That said, I'm also hoping for/expecting an exciting ride this year. mini pdx is a great way of summing up the potential!

[kooba] 09/2/2011 16:31

never been a p.i. stock ...sensible non puffy management just getting on with clearing the hurdles to commercialisation where we are now...as any initial order for the kingston system could run into 100,000's units we could see a quick jump to meaningful revenues...pnu looks a no brainer for uninteruptable power market against the current lead acid systems..could take longer for industry adoption but would see a j/v route with global partner as the way forward there.both kingston and vphase could be big beneficiaries of hmg or european legislation on energy efficiency in the home so well placed.think the company could do a lot more to get itself out there and bring some new investors in...but am hoping for an exciting ride this year.mini pdx imho !!