Endace Share Discussion Threads

[knackers] 04/5/2012 11:22

Perhaps the most important US EXPO in this year's calendar for Endace next week. Interop in Las Vegas..

[knackers] 02/5/2012 17:11

LTE (4G) looks like it'll drive a big opportunity.

[edwardt] 02/5/2012 11:26

thanks - a very edifying summary of the situation - let's hope us small investors don't get rolled over!

[knackers] 02/5/2012 10:24

I'm not sure a tie-up with a competitor is what's needed here, Ed. Reckon we're looking at a complementary 'vertical'. So someone that's looking to diversify and stregthen their portfolio by getting their teeth sunk into [Next Gen] IT security.

I'm therefore thinking more along the lines of a systems integrator/business soluions vendor (IBM, HP etc) or network infrastructure provider (Cisco, Juniper, Huawei, Avaya etc). Either way we're talking premier league and any formal tie-up involving equity would clearly be significant. Too many IT alliances I've been involved in over the years looked great on paper but lacked Exec commitment, follow-through and attention to detail. Equity involvement, however, has a habit of concentrating minds (look no furher than Imagination Tech). That would be a v sound dev for Endace. Frankly they're NOT going to tackle the US enterprise (Fortune 500) market themselves - they don't have the relationships, channels, reputation...BUT they DO have the product!

So who might it be with, and just as importantly, on what terms...? Who knows. But given the Appt of Deutsche Bank I'd think an equity offer a real possibility. 25% interest at £5 a share....again who knows, but seems in the ballpark to me.

And [FWIW] with FY results 22/5 I wouldn't discount a contract announcement. Any partner will no doubt be 'buying' the tech for their own infrastrutcure much as RSA/EMC did with NetWitness kit last year and their's is a VERY similar, passive monitoring tech to Endace's - though not quite as good ;o) certainly not at high/ultra fast (40-100gbs) throughputs. I think they went for about 7-8x sales.

Real-time network monitoring (what enadace's calls HD visibility) has the potential to be one of the fastest growing areas within top end enterprise IT/ICT security.

Here's why:
1. Software limitations: Software security products can't handle high speed networks (10-40-100Gb/s)
2. NIC limitations: Traditional NIC cards used for Netflow monitoring can't scale (they drop packets above about 1Gb/s)
3. Firewalls get bypassed: Security professionals know thy can't rely on walls and ditches to keep bad guys out of their networks
4. Cost: IT and security directors need to consolidate their infrastructures (economies of convergence) they want fewer boxes = less electricity burn, easier management, lower S&M overheads
5. Forensics: NetOps and SecOps staff need to be able to audit and investigate what happened, quickly, isolate that breach/event, investigate/analyse, report, fix and patch. Endace provides that record and playback capability - at high throughputs v few vendors have this capability. Very few.

[edwardt] 02/5/2012 09:18

agree but it is surely high time they report a major contract win - patience has a finite entity - if a tie up with a competitor is announced, in my mind that would be a strategic equity stake of circa 20 to 30% equity stake in eda or am i way off the mark? if so , where would their entry point be pitched?

[knackers] 02/5/2012 09:04

Based on multiples of sales/revenue we're starting to look cheap here. MMs just don't want to know.

I'm not getting suckered into this (I smell a rat) as this shake down has been on v low vols and the facts on performance are well know - as are Endace's prospects (v good indeed).

We're rapidly approaching a 2x sales valuation! Compare that with Endace's parallel IPS/IDS vendor-competitor Sourcefire (who struggle with high speed networks) they're now on about a 9/10x sales valuation. $1.7bn market cap...

£4 is the next obvious support level would expect to see a strong bounce there - hardly surprising as any trade sale/take out (whilst I think that's now unlikely) would be close to a 100% premium on that price.

[knackers] 02/5/2012 08:50

It's a cyberwar:

Recommendations also made by senior military leaders in the US for DOD's cyberwarfare unit to be elevated such that it be given it's own military [combatant] command designation.



Still serious questions over our ability to uphold civil and democratic liberties (primarily privacy) whilst successful countering (defending) and prosecuting (challenging) these cyber 'threats'. No question the genie is out of the bottle but privacy groups will [rightly] want reassurances worked into any new legislation - much as was the case with CISPA last week.

[knackers] 01/5/2012 18:39

"A new visibility architecture for high-speed networks" EMA White paper on a new architecture for monitoring/securing high performance networks.

Well worth a read as it neatly captures Endace's new strategy:

[knackers] 30/4/2012 12:57

MMs v reluctant to hold anything on account Ed, and someone doesn't seem to have the patience to hold any longer - as I say above, poss short term bid speculators now closing their positions.

I think next month's FY analysts presentation will be interesting on a whole number of levels. I find this 'record' vacancy count most intriguing, not the sort of thing you do having just come out with a profits warning! So why the sudden confidence? What's changed etc?

NZers are not in the habit of being wildly reckless....uber cautious, under-stated more like.

[edwardt] 30/4/2012 11:48

mm - suspect there is a big seller out there - just added a small position with ease at £4.70...

[knackers] 30/4/2012 10:53

Very low volumes - so nothing much to write home about. The most recent trading update would suggest the likelihood of a fire-sale has diminished - that might not please one or two holders looking for near term 40% upside.

Given that Endace now have some 23 vacancies published on their website (up again last week) - this doesn't look like a company that's about to throw in the towel ;o)
There MUST be something underpinning that confidence.

I'm convinced there's some kind of [poss strategic] tie-up in the wings. Whilst an outright acquisition can't be ruled out, I think a significant alliance much more likely.

Re the recent movement, there was a buyer in the market on Friday [15k shares at £4.90] and that has been the trend since mid March. Someone's happy to continue buying around the £5 mark.

[edwardt] 30/4/2012 10:34

any views on the recent wobble?

[edwardt] 26/4/2012 15:18

NetScout Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTCT), an industry leader for advanced application and service assurance solutions, today announced financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2012.
"We finished the fiscal year with a strong quarter," said Anil Singhal, President and CEO of NetScout Systems. "Year-over-year quarterly non-GAAP revenue grew 16% and non-GAAP net income per share increased 30%. Q4 bookings were up 32% year-over-year, and we closed the year with $13 million of product backlog. For the full year, bookings were up 17% led by service provider bookings which were up by 31%. Enterprise bookings were up 13%, including financial services bookings which were up 15%."

[knackers] 26/4/2012 12:30

The world's five biggest cyber challenges:

[knackers] 20/4/2012 17:34

Good opinion piece in SC Magazine by Endace's Tim Nichols

[knackers] 19/4/2012 18:31

I see Endace have inked a new agreement with Rsignia. Looks like that US reseller channel exclusivity is no longer, but good to see they're still mates - it seems Rsignia are getting traction with their Federal clients.

Possible that the shape given to this 'new alliance' opens the door for a heavyweight US/NAM channel tie-up...

[knackers] 19/4/2012 12:38

Here's a vendor that'll feel the pinch from EndaceVision at the top end of the market. They're an Interop 2012 finalist:

[aspex] 16/4/2012 23:47

Header updated to emphasise recent developments as we see Endace make it mark.
Thanks Knackers

[knackers] 16/4/2012 11:09

I make that now 21 vacancies on the Endace website. Up from 16 earlier in the month...

[knackers] 16/4/2012 09:06

...and supported by a local recruitment drive. Good to see alongside the Newgen tie-up. Squeezing the accelerator?

[aspex] 16/4/2012 08:26

Office opened in Sydney showing their ongoing development.

[knackers] 13/4/2012 14:58

Cada problem, G. I've been watching this story unfold over many years now and have kept v close to things genuinely there is substantial upside + potential to this business, but like any tech co eda now need to focus on their go to market. That means transitioning to stage 2 and 3 of the IT/HiTech company dev cycle:

Stage 1. Product stage (focus on tech/product development)
Stage 2. Sales phase (focus on getting the right sales model up and running, sound segmentation and targeting)
Stage 3. Marketing phase (moving towards a more 'holistic' solution sale. Stage turbo-charged by alliance partnerships which add value to the product sale - i.e. complimentary systems integrators or consultancies for example)

From the cheap seats Stage 1 is largely complete. But their world-beating technology now needs to be complimented by a world-beating marketing + sales operation - with genuine reach. That can only IMHO be achieved via partnership with a heavyweight(s) that command the necessary channels to their priority targets/sectors. Plenty in the pipe re stage 2 & 3 m'thinks...

As you can see by viewings on the new EndaceVision YouTube channel, the technology 'rocks'...only prob is, no one knows about it! et voila le problem