Emap Share Discussion Threads

[mackerel] 13/6/2002 08:59

Nice one, Tilceo. I suppose that, having seen the tech boom, when perfectly sane and (I thought) intelligent people were telling me that within a short time everyone would be on the internet and mags would become obsolete, I am now even more certain that any such changes will take a very long time to come about - whole generations, in fact.
Did you know that 12 per cent of people in Britain are over retiring age? How many of them will ever beome even partially reliant on the net? I guess the vast majority have never even seen it in operation. So they won't be printing pages off the net; and they are the most affluent portion of our society, so they will go on buying magazines. Another example of change is that even with the advent of motor transport the bicycle is still in widespread operation - even booming in some areas. Similarly I remember that when aircrafte started increasing in numbers and people started taking package holidays to warmer climes there were suggestions that all ferry companies would quickly go out of business. Didn't happen! I can't believe that magazines will become less important for a long time yet.
Take the scenario of war, terrorism, or even stupidity on someone's part, which results in widespread electricity cuts (I am old enough to remember when these were a very regular occurrence). Then magazines and newspapers would become essential items because the internet would be out of action. Anything can happen to change the scene overnight.
I think you're forseeing the future coming more quickly than it actually will. As for the shares, you're absolutely right to base your strategy on whether they are worth the money you paid and whether you are happy keeping them. Kust remember, EMAP could diversify and things could change again... overnight! My question is: Can EMAP cope with whatever is thrown at it? I personally believe they probably can. And over the years I have looked at £12 being the sensible top price, in a boom, for the shares.

[pepi moon] 12/6/2002 18:08

worst mistake they ever did was not buy Jazz FM they got shafted missed out on the Hed Kandi label which they could have really taken places. Still on the same note they will float Kiss FM off I think pretty soon and start growing by aquisition perfect timing for it Kiss FM holidays expand the brand further around the UK THE TOP DJS in the UK with possibilities of starting a club chain etc etc . Shall be interesting to watch this as short term floating of kiss may prop price up long term magazines will drag them down or sell kiss of and will probably take a knock but what the hell market is bummed anyway only good for a descent floatation of kiss fm.

[tilceo] 12/6/2002 16:50

Mackerel, I take your point about radio - that it wasnt expected to survive and did, but even there radio has been far overtaken in ad spend by TV. I'm not suggesting that mags and papers will cease to exist overnight. I believe your comparison with radio is a good one and a similar thing will likely occur with print vs. web (and I believe even TV and radio will be web-based eventually). However I'm not assuming everyone is just like me. I take your point that some people prefer printed matter, however this is not ruled out by web use. I concede that it's a little more inconvenient to produce a print out than if you just buy it, but there's the plus that you can enlarge or enhance or digitally alter or annotate stuff using PCs which can be more fiddly with paper. Record-keeping and searching for information stored on disk is much easier using digital info than printed info too. I agree with you entirely that share prices are wholly dependent on what others are prepared to pay. However, I would contend that what people are prepared to pay itself depends crucially on the fundamentals of the business, in particular the current and projected future economic value of the business. Sure sometimes in times of exuberance share prices can get inflated, but I base my investment decisions not on whether I can find another muppet to pay more than I did, but on whether I'm happy with what I've got for my money (ie that I'll still be wealthier in the long run as a result even if I can never find a buyer for my shares). My opinion is that in EMAPs case this looks unlikely.

[newstarter] 10/6/2002 10:44

Newspapers have grown and grown in terms of circulation and pagination, as have Magazines. Over the past 5 yrs, mags have changed beyond belief - there are 100's of more titles, and the explostion of mens mags has astounded everyone in the industry. Returns are a major issue, especially in mags. Newspapers work on around 6% returns ( not sale or return, just returned for control sake ), whereas mags are at around 45% would you believe ( proper sale or return ). There may be pressure on those figures, but not in my opinion on the business itself. Think the issue of the paperless office is a good example - the exact opposite has happened, business has never been so good in a volume sense

[mackerel] 10/6/2002 10:27

So TilCEO (surely he's a chief executive officer)reckons that newspapers and magazines are in long-term decline. And of course he's right. But he's made the mistake of assuming that the majority of people follow his lifestyle. Well, Tilceo - they don't!
Twenty years ago radio was said to be on the verge of becoming extinct because of TV - who would want to listen to radio? Yet now it's a core product in bringing in advertising revenue. Some people have to work, Tilceo. And some do it where there's no tele - so they read newspapers and magazines, or listen to the radio (I never do).
And some people want permanent records in front of them - eg a printed sequence of how to hold a golf club, or how to mend a water pipe. Magazines are permanent and whether they are in long-term decline matters not - EMAP and other publishing firms are quite capable of casting their net farther afield to keep profits. After all it's not so long ago that EMAP had big printing works and loads of provincial newspapers, and exhibitions. This is one company that, mercifully, is flexible enough to change quickly. Sometimes it gets it wrong - show me a company that doesn't.
As for its intangibles, they are just that and your valuation of them is as valid as anyone else's. Just like David Beckham's football skills. They are worth what anyone is prepared to pay. But magazines have reputations, and copyrighted brands, and at the moment these are worth quite a lot. In 10 years time they may be valueless. Remember ground-breaking telprinters? They were overtaken by the fax machine almost overnight. No-one knows what's around the corner, but at the moment magazines are selling. Looks to me as if you are being a tad pessimistic - share values depend on what other people will pay - not what you think they are worth. You and I may be light years ahead in our thinking, but it's what others think that drives share prices.

[tilceo] 06/6/2002 14:55

I went short EMAP yesterday... based upon my suspicion that printed media (esp magazines and newspapers) are in long-term decline with the advent of the web. Broadband take up over the next few years, will I believe accelerate this consumer trend. Advertising and circulation will both be hit, and the signs are this is already happening. I'm starting to do more of my own advertising on the web for three reasons - 1) its considerably cheaper than print and 2) it can be targetted to the right audience better, 3) it's faster and can be interactive. I'm also buying less mags and papers because I can get the info and entertainment I'm looking for on the web too. Even the travelling public are likely to require less magazines in the future with aircraft installing interactive web screens.

This is not to mention that EMAP's book value is only one tenth of it's share price, so if you broke the company up today and sold off the bare assets (even assuming you can get full book value for the intangibles) then you'd lose 90% of your money straight away. That's a lot of catching up the management has to do, to make £2bn in earnings before my company is tangibly worth the current £2bn price tag. I'm a seller at any price above £6.

[tilceo] 06/6/2002 13:52

I went short EMAP yesterday... based upon my suspicion that printed media (esp magazines and newspapers) are in long-term decline with the advent of the web. Broadband take up over the next few years, will I believe accelerate this consumer trend. Advertising and circulation will both be hit, and the signs are this is already happening. I'm starting to do more of my own advertising on the web for three reasons - 1) its considerably cheaper than print and 2) it can be targetted to the right audience better, 3) it's faster and can be interactive. I'm also buying less mags and papers because I can get the info and entertainment I'm looking for on the web too. Even the travelling public are likely to require less magazines in the future with aircraft installing interactive web screens.

This is not to mention that EMAP's book value is only one tenth of it's share price, so if you broke the company up today and sold off the bare assets (even assuming you can get full book value for the intangibles) then you'd lose 90% of your money straight away. That's a lot of catching up the management has to do, to make £2bn in earnings before my company is tangibly worth the current £2bn price tag. I'm a seller at any price above £6.

[christianl] 30/5/2002 14:20

Djooh - tell me about it!! I wonder why. Maybe a lot of depressed long-term holders still waiting for it to hit £14.00 ! Luckily not me.......still looking good.

[moonblue] 30/5/2002 12:39

looks good keeping eye on it

[christianl] 09/5/2002 09:34

Reasonable volumes of late, although price ticking up when the majority of trades are sells. Is there a big buyer out there?

[chrisgail] 21/3/2002 17:09

This is just a slightly more geared play on the advertising, media and publishing world. How far will it go? How long can you wait? Is the answer! £10 for the impatient, £12 for the very patient. I'll be happy with £10, I paid £14

[matta007] 18/3/2002 16:09

Emap looks to me like it will start to climb more rapidly now. The American debacle is in the past and people are beginning to evaluate the company as an essentially anglo-french operation again. Within this sector Emap is a very strong performer (see recent ABC results). Its share price would, however, appear to depend entirely on the analysts predictions of whether ad revenues will increase in UK and Europe. Sentiment seems to be that it will and I would expect emap's share price to go back up (to ten quid ish?) by year end. No stats to back this up but then try and analysis emaps share price movements for the last two years using stats - it just doesn't work. It's one of those stocks people buy on hunches I'm afraid...

[wells777] 16/3/2002 18:58

Looks like this will head higher if it breaks 800p on strong volume.
Classic reverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming.

[christianl] 15/3/2002 14:29

Does anyone have an opinion on which way they will go in the medium term?

[teeps] 12/11/2001 14:15

Still no position - will wait until after the results - pattern unclear which way it will go.

[teeps] 09/11/2001 07:41

Well yesterday there was a nice hammer - is this the top of the up trend - will think about going short on this one today.

[tuftymatt] 07/11/2001 08:02

Moneymagnet , From last nights US rate cut I think you will be out today !!

I have just got in from a night shift and will be in bed all day so will leave my short open for today.
Have had a real bad week but am glad I closed my dow short the other day for a loss of 100 points as I would have been really in the SH*T if I had left it running!!

[moneymagnet] 06/11/2001 17:08

tufty
I am short this as i think you are. my stop hasn't been breached yet but another day like the last two and i shall be out.
we all make mistakes and i hope to learn from them ; but at the moment i can't find any information company announcements broker recommendation etc etc to explain the anomaly.

[tuftymatt] 06/11/2001 17:03

I have no idea.
As you say this should be falling but it is not.
Does someone in the city know something that is keeping the price high??

[moneymagnet] 06/11/2001 16:29

tuftymatt

Another day when selling outweighs buying - where is the law of supply and demand operating ?? How do you account for the apparent anomoly ?

[tuftymatt] 06/11/2001 10:12

Fins showing phone trading only!!
And the price keeps rising!!

[tuftymatt] 06/11/2001 09:45

I hope this fall starts soon as I am hurting at the mo.
Had to close my dow short last night for a loss of OVER 100 POINTS!!

[moneymagnet] 05/11/2001 15:25

Teeps - The price movement is defying logic. over the last two trading days sells have far outstriped buys but the price has soared - wonder if the company has a share buy back programme!
On Friday,after the close there was a significant downward correction.
All the technical indicators I follow have this oversold and due for a correction.

[teeps] 05/11/2001 11:35

Guys - where do you see this one going, looks like it's breaking through it's downtrend though the volume is hardly convincing - potentially a false breakout. Any thoughts?